DAQMAN TWO OUT OF TWO AT KEMPTON: After back-to-back supernaps to end last week, it’s two naps up out of three for Daqman at the start of this week, thanks to Monday and Wednesday strikes at Kempton:
WON 10-11 UMBRIA (Wednesday nap)
WON 1-1 MILITARY ACADEMY (Monday nap)
NH TARGETS MULLINS AND HENDERSON: After closing his Flat-season Fortune Cookies at 482.50 profit yesterday, Daqman’s plans for the Jumps has him challenging Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson if he is to break their big-race duelling.
HUGE JUMPS RATING GAPS
FORTUNE COOKIES task in the Jumps season is to find the big winners and the in-between trial-race stars, notably to close the gap on Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle.
The markets for the Cheltenham big-three events show staggering gaps in the ratings between the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle favourites and their nearest rivals.
They also show the dominance of Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson, and currently the absence of Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton. But that won’t last and Fortune Cookies will join their attack in the next few of weeks.
⭕ Champion Hurdle: Tuesday March 11
175 CONSTITUTION HILL (Nicky Henderson): Champion Hurdler
156 LOSSIEMOUTH (Willie Mullins): Irish Mares Champion Hurdle
⭕ Champion Chase: Wednesday March 12
170 JONBON (Nicky Henderson): Tingle Creek, Celebration Chase
166 GAELIC WARRIOR (Willie Mullins): won the Cheltenham Arkle
⭕ Gold Cup: Friday March 13
179 GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (Willie Mullins): won Cheltenham Gold Cup
162 FACT TO FILE (Willie Mullins): won the Brown Advisory
Big-race dates 2024
Autumn Gold Cup, Cheltenham, November 16
Lancashire Chase, Haydock, November 23
King George V1 Chase, Kempton, December 26
HE COULD BE ROLLS ROYSSE
⭕ 1.05 Newbury A decent midweek jumps card in Berkshire so it makes sense to concentrate there on Thursday for three races.
Trainer Ben Pauling is keen to get a first run over hurdles in for Roysse who also holds engagements for Ffos Las and Sandown later this week.
After showing promise on debut at Wincanton, he came here to Newbury to win what looked an above average bumper (the runner-up from that race Jurancon won nicely at Chepstow yesterday) and looks a very interesting recruit.
The Harry Derham trained Pure Carbon has the benefit of a start over hurdles after also showing good potential in bumpers. He shaped well at Warwick when chasing home the odds-on Captain Marvellous and is the obvious danger.
Interesting to see Hartington being nibbled at in the morning Betdaq Betting Exchange market. He looks a little exposed already to me against the potential big improvers but the balance of his form gives him place chances, at best, in my opinion.
SNIPER TO HIT TARGET
⭕ 2.52 Newbury A decent class 2 long distance handicap hurdle but it’s been turned on it’s head from a betting perspective by the defection of likely favourite Major Fortune who was bidding for his seventh win in just eight races.
That leaves just a quartet and three of those are making their seasonal reappearances. None of the three have won after breaks of this magnitude so it might open the door for the David Pipe trained American Sniper who should be suited by the return of the cheekpieces.
He’s a slightly in and out performer but on his day more than capable at this level and gets a 2lb drop from the handicapper.
He ran better at Cheltenham last time out after flopping at Chepstow and the current form of his trainer (I mentioned earlier his winner yesterday) is another positive.
In a very tightly banded market, the main danger may come from Monmiral – the Pertemps winner at Cheltenham in March who has big race entries later this month at Aintree and Haydock. It wouldn’t be the biggest shock to see this being a bonus for him en route to bigger prizes.
WILL TWIST FOR TWO CARDS
⭕ 3.27 Newbury This looks a wide open handicap chase with the exception of Sail Away whose current form is PP.
I thought the Nigel Twiston-Davies pair were both of interest and just a point or two bigger than I would have priced them so I will step in for a WIN BETDAQ 20 return on both.
The stable have really hit the new season running with seven winners from their last 32 runners and a stack of placed efforts too.
Thelasthighking has tumbled down the weights but has been mixing it at a (generally) higher level than this. He ran well last year after a couple of breaks and might be the type to catch fresh.
High Treason was progressive over hurdles and looks destined to do better over fences. A starting mark of 122 looks more than workable.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.05 Newbury (win 10, nap)
BET 8.3pts win ROYSEE
2.52 Newbury (win 10)
BET 5.0pts win AMERICAN SNIPER
3.27 Newbury (both win 20)
BET 2.8pts win THELASTHIGHKING
BET 3.1pts win HIGH TREASON
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