FOLLOW TOP TRAINERS TODAY: Daqman checks out who goes where and is the likely winner (or loser!) as he follows the top training yards of the Jumps scene around the country today, with meetings at Newbury, Ludlow and Market Rasen, plus a bet at Chelmsford tonight.
HENDERSON STAKES HIS CLAIM..
Trainers are creatures of habit. They choose where to win and where to prep their horses. And today’s cards are a revelation if you look at the stats.
Nicky Henderson’s stable is nearby Newbury. Venetia Williams is handy for Ludlow. But they treat their local tracks differently.
Henderson runners at Newbury this afternoon must go on your Back list, with his record there overall 26%, striking at 30% over hurdles, and his current hits rate everywhere totting up to an in-form 30%.
Williams’ runners at Ludlow must go on your Lay list, with her record there a modest 10%, only 4% over hurdles, and with her current record generally a very-much-out-of-form 0-21, only two of them in a place.
12.40 Newbury Henderson’s Claimantakinforgan, third in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, should get off the mark over hurdles at the likely expense of Lostintranslation, to be saddled by Colin Tizzard.
That one’s Chepstow form has been boosted but Tizzard is missing strike badly, his last 10 form figures in an overall 10% winner rate for the last fortnight is 3433240022, still standing. Not very encouraging.
1.40 Newbury Venetia Williams current form was not considered when they made up the Racing Post betting forecast and put Willie Boy in as favourite. No surprise at all that he had drifted to 7.8 in the BETDAQ orange before 9 o’clock.
Peter Bowen has had four chase winners already in November so no surprise either that Henri Parry Morgan moved to the front of the market, now dropped from Graded level but down to a trip he’s never won at, whether chase or hurdle. And I question the Bowen strike rate over fences at Newbury. It’s 0%.
A 5.9 offer on BETDAQ, Colin’s Brother won first run back last winter and trainer Twiston-Davies is currently in top gear with figures of 1310101, still standing, in the last five days.
Mr Medic is an improver but has been absolutely clobbered by the handicapper for strolling home in a lower-level race at Exeter, with the going now turned against him.
DREAMCATCHING WITH NICHOLLS
1.50 Ludlow I preferred the 5.0 Paul Nicholls’ Dreamcatching to the 2.68 Robinshill this morning, with the Nicholls triple hurdles winner getting a stone on his steeplechase debut.
2.10 Newbury A rose by any other name! Watch your bets, as Dame Rose, Mona Rose and Oscar Rose make up almost half of this field. Oscar Rose comes out best on Aintree bumper form but was beaten favourite on her reappearance at Chepstow, and was remote behind her stablemate Cap Soleil, also on NH Flat.
Drinks Interval has kept up a modest ching-ching on the Tizzard till and goes for a novice-hurdles hat-trick here but has to give weight all round.
I was surprised to see Countister only third favourite in the morning BETDAQ market (4.3) but success for Nicky Henderson in the opener will help to compress her odds by this time. Has won Graded bumpers at Maisons-Laffitte and ‘could be anything.’
2.55 Ludlow I shall have a pound on Monbeg Charmer (BETDAQ 5.6 taken). He’s twice the animal on a right-handed track and needed his first run back.
I’m not sure I can trust the ‘bridesmaid’ Orbasa to hold on to the bouquet he earned at Wincanton, now stepped up half a mile, and Still Believing’s chase form is a stone below his hurdles ability.
DAQMAN’S BETS
SUPERNAP: BET 20pts win CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN (12.40 Newbury)
BET 4pts win COLIN’S BROTHER (1.40 Newbury)
BET 5pts win DREAMCATCHING (1.50 Ludlow)
BET 6pts win COUNTISTER (2.10 Newbury)
BET 4.25pts win MONBEG CHARMER (2.55 Ludlow)
BET 8pts win POPPY KAY (3.20 Newbury)
BET 3ppts win URBAN KODE (3.45 Market Rasen)
BET 5.5pts win TROPICAL ROCK (7.45 Chelmsford)
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