DUBLIN FESTIVAL: SUNDAY FACTS AND STATS: The Dublin Festival is on this weekend unless the weather worsens at Leopardstown, which has late declarations to try to accommodate and adjust the running orders if any one race cuts up or has to be switched. Here are Sunday stats and facts from Daqman.
KEEP SMILING: IT’S A FUN DAY FOR A YANKEE: England has lost today’s Jumps meetings at Fakenham and Wincanton, but Daqman tries to find a nap and a fun yankee on the AW cards at Southwell and Newcastle.
HAT-TRIX AMONG THE MARES
12.40 Leopardstown, Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle (Sunday) If Jessica Harrington runs last year’s winner, Alletrix, it’s probably part inspiration from Liam Cusack: he won it three years in succession with the same horse, Who’s That (2015-17), and Alletrix scored when two years younger than Who’s That when he landed the first leg of his treble.
Unfortunately, a Grade-1 third to Laurina in the Mares’ Novice Championship at Fairyhouse in the Spring has kept Alletrix’s rating lofted a stone since this time last year when she was second to the same Laurina in the Solerina before winning today’s event.
1.15 Leopardstown, Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Sunday) This race launched Footpad for Willie Mullins at 14-1 in 2016. Wouldn’t it be a steal if we could find another Mullins long-shot with hidden magic? We’ll try!
3.00 Leopardstown, Flogas Novice Chase (Sunday) Beware ‘nearly horses!’ JLT second and third, RSA second and fourth. That’s how winners of this Grade 1 have fared afterwards at Cheltenham in the last five years.
3.35 Leopardstown, Irish Gold Cup (Sunday) In theory this is on a par, ratings wise, with Sizing John’s double in 2017 in this race (off 164) and then the Cheltenham ‘gold’ (167), with six declared for Sunday off 164 to 169. We’ll see!
4.10 Leopardstown (Sunday) Only one winner of this Grade A handicap has carried more than 10st 13lb in seven seasons.
But seven of the last nine were priced between 6-1 and 10-1 at SP, so start hunting a horse with decent form at a winning weight.
PORTLEDGE LOVES THIS TRACK
2.40 Southwell With David Evans currently training a winner a day, Not So Shy might get off the mark in this Ladbrokes Handicap, receiving a lump of weight from the two last-time winners.
Huge at 14.5 on BETDAQ today, Not So Shy improved for the step up to 6f at Lingfield and has the advantage here again of the one stall, which helped him no end on the Surrey track and is a big bonus round Southwell.
Melgate Magic’s win came in first-time blinkers and a follow-up depends on whether they work again. Tobeornottobe trotted up at Newcastle but suffers a painful 11lb rise in consequence for a yard showing 0-5 this month.
6.25 Newcastle Portledge has Newcastle form since October 2017 of 111031, the four CD wins coming off ratings of 71, 76, 76 and 78, two of them in today’s Class 4.
So today’s 80 mark is hardly a burden – you could say generous – and the stable is in form with a 40% strike rate this month
Ivan Furtado has two goes at the race but his 0-19 with the older horses this year is not encouraging. David Barron (Reckless Endeavour) is 0-18 with his string.
The Great Wall would normally look poised for a win after a reappearance run but he bled that day. He’s had a month for treatment since then but hard to trust your money.
7.00 and 7.30 Newcastle I don’t want to bet odds-on to maximum stakes in these low-class contests, though Eve Harrington (7.00) and Lion Hearted (7.30) look as if they ought to win. Let’s just have some fun and put them in a Daq Multiples yankee.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.40 Southwell (win 30)
BET 2.25pts win and place NOT SO SHY
6.25 Newcastle (win 20)
BET 7.5pts win (nap) PORTLEDGE
DAQ MULTIPLES
1pt win yankee
NOT SO SHY (2.40 Southwell)
PORTLEDGE (6.25 Newcastle)
EVE HARRINGTON (7.00 Newcastle)
LION HEARTED (7.30 Newcastle)
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