HAT-TRICK LANDED, AS DAQMAN ANTICIPATES THE GAMBLES: Daqman landed his naps hat-trick yesterday with Union (WON 6-5), a morning 2.6 offer on BETDAQ, gambled on like the two even-money shots that started the sequence.
Monday: profit on the day 8.55pts
WON 8-13 BEAUFORT WEST (supernap)
Tuesday: profit 13.75 (before Rule 4)
WON 8-11 MASTERS LEGACY (nap)
WON 5-1 MOSAKHER
Wednesday: profit 5.50
WON 6-5 UNION (nap)
LEICESTER IS ABANDONED: THE NAP SWITCHES TO NEWCASTLE: Daqman hoped for a high-stakes bet in the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick today but the race looks tricky. Leicester has been abandoned with the track waterlogged in places, so the nap switches to Newcastle (AW).
BRUCE STAYS AND FITS THE STATS
2.40 Catterick (North Yorkshire Grand National) Though Catterick was good/good to soft in places last night, showers were forecast. It’s a tricky race with six of eight runners within 4lb of each other, not what I was looking for to continue my run of National success.
In-form Philip Kirby’s Little Bruce was beaten six lengths off 122 in this marathon last year, and has had a prep run over hurdles to attack the prize again.
He’s 10lb higher now after he improved to take the Cambridgeshire National at Huntingdon in April. Both these races were on a sound surface, but he won on soft ground and on heavy as a hurdler.
The stats recommend an eight-year-old (three wins in a row) with 11st 10lb to 11st 12lb, and he’s bang in the middle, and is still unexposed.
Tom George’s Sumkindofking needs it on top. He’s never tried going this far before, and needs amateur Noel George (7) to ride the race of his life in a family affair. Well backed last night.
Kingswell Theatre was dropped 9lb last year after his second in the West Wales National and fifth in the cross-country at the Cheltenham festival. He’s run in six cross-countrys, a discipline that seems to mentally slow them down.
Milansbar won the Warwick Classic and was second in the Midlands Grand National at the start of 2018. Has raced only six times since fifth in the Aintree Grand National of that year and is long in the tooth now at 13.
Winner of the Durham National in 2018 on good ground, Brian Boranha weakened out of it on the soft when favourite for the same race in October.
Pickamix has a poor strike rate (1-12), winning just the once over fences in a first-time visor. They haven’t worked again since.
Manwell landed back-to-back success a year ago surrounded by five times second but he’s never tried this kind of trip and needs a personal best.
Chase The Wind is a consistent bridesmaid, seven times second since he started chasing, but he was a winner in October and stayed today’s trip (second) at Bangor last Spring.
Verdict: Little Bruce (BETDAQ 3.5 taken) is consistent and fits all the stats but, if they race on mainly good ground, Brian Boranha (8.5 offers) could bounce back. His form over fences since he broke his duck is 11031003044P, but sifted to 3m and 3m 5f on good ground is an attractive 1131034. Chase The Wind should be on the premises but seems to lack finish.
WOODIE’S THE WINNER: YES, NO..
3.45 Catterick Captain Woodie, well backed on all three hurdles starts – never in his entire career bigger than 4-1 at SP – looks a standout on his handicap debut against a low-class field.
He defends Nicky Henderson’s 100% record on this track (3-3) after running up to a subsequent Grade-2 runner, with 13 others well beaten off.
I’m Too Generous is 3-4 but raised 10lb (23lb overall) for beating Trongate and Trapper Jack on the Edinburgh track at Musselburgh.
Trongate was beaten a total of 99 lengths in two races, one before and one after Musselburgh, and Trapper Jack has been twice out of the frame since, unable to cope with a 7lb penalty for back-to-back wins in October.
Enfin Phil is 0-8 since leaving France in October, 2018. Groveman who won here a year ago might be a bigger threat: it’s nearly a month since his trainer, Jedd O’Keeffe, had a winner but he has a 50% record (4-8) on this course.
Yes No Maybe So has been bogged down in heavy ground on his local track the last twice but hurdled well when placed at Sedgefield earlier and will be suited by the longer trip on his handicap debut today.
Verdict: Yes No Maybe So (BETDAQ 15.0) is better than the bare form and is the alternative to Captain Woodie (3.5), if the rain stays away. I saw I’m Too Generous making a price for Captain Woodie but Groveman was a stronger order.
BRAZIL COULD BREAK HIS SPIRIT
THE NAP (1.55 Newcastle): I saw that Bendy Spirit has a penalty and is three times a failure on Tapeta here at Newcastle, and that Dark Regard is up in trip after hanging on grimly over shorter. Not sure to stay the 7f as a pace horse, with stable out of form.
So I took a chance on the 3.9 BETDAQ offer for come-from-behind Bella Brazil who burst into form after a change of stables to Jessica Harrington’s yard, with the same jockey, Hollie Doyle, retained for another go. I’ve manipulated the stakes and targets to try to balance the books.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.55 Newcastle (win 12)
BET 4pts win (nap) BELLA BRAZIL
2.40 Catterick (win 10 each)
BET 4pts win LITTLE BRUCE
BET 1.25pts win BRIAN BORANHA
3.45 Catterick (win 20, win 10)
BET 1.5pts win YES NO MAYBE SO
BET 4pts win CAPTAIN WOODIE
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