BIG DAY FOR A FORTUNE COOKIE AND 2YO GROUP PROSPECT: Daqman’s Fortune Cookies are on the line today with a big bet at Salisbury, where a 10-1 Irish raider could be in the thick of it with the hot favourites. A novices race at Leicester may have thrown up Group horses: one of them is napped at Newcastle.
FORGET THE HYPE! EPSOM GLORY COMES FROM ‘UNKNOWNS’: Press and bookmaker will hype the hunt for the 2021 Epsom Derby winner from these very early days. Forget it. Though two-year-old trials may sometimes flag the mile Classics (see Daqman yesterday), Derby winners are increasingly staying underground, wrapped in cottonwool or late developers among the ‘unknowns’ in the top yards of England and Ireland.
THE ‘INVISIBLE’ DERBY WINNERS
Are you sitting comfortably? Then I’ll begin the Strange Case of the Epsom Derby. Once upon a time, not so long ago, Classics betting for the following year came alive in the autumn.
Some of it hyped up, but much of it because the top races for two-year-olds in September and October produced Guineas and Derby crackerjacks which kept Flat fans alive during the winter.
Unbeaten colts were lauded and these two-year-old stars became three-year-old champions and Classic heroes. Or so it seemed.
Yesterday I mapped out the season for the 2020 juvenile trials that matter to the Guineas, but only hinted at a new reality: they are now rarely relevant to the Derby.
In fact, some Derby winners in the decade were ‘invisible’ as two-year-olds: either not seen at all or making a modest appearance in a maiden race. The last 10 years:
🏇 Serpentine Ran once as a juvenile, 10th of 11 at Galway.
🏇 Anthony Van Dyck Landed Tyros and Futurity double at the Curragh but beaten in the National Stakes, Dewhurst and Breeders Cup Juvenile.
🏇 Masar Novice winner; third in the Chesham.
🏇 Wings Of Eagles Well beaten on juvenile debut; won his maiden at Killarney.
🏇 Harzand Fifth of 16 in Gowran Park maiden.
🏇 Golden Horn Won a Nottingham maiden on sole appearance.
🏇 Australia Winner and second in Curragh maidens before taking a Leopardstown Group 3
🏇 Ruler Of The World Unraced as a two-year-old.
🏇 Camelot Perhaps the last of the old champions: won his maiden and then the Futurity at Doncaster, known then as the Racing Post Trophy. Landed the Guineas and Derby double.
🏇 Pour Moi Unplaced before winning a small-field two-year-olds race at Longchamp at 15-1.
➡️ Next: finding the fabulous fillies.
COULD BE DOODA DOODA’S DAY..
⭕ 2.30 Newcastle Slowly away, Lights On gradually ran through the field on her debut in a juveniles novice at Leicester, and began to make inroads into the clear lead of Stunning Beauty.
Stunning Beauty, an imposing Shamardal, was afterwards declared a Group-1 filly for Godolphin, so switching Lights On from novice to potential player in the pattern.
But Sir Michael Stoute (38% at Newcastle) would already know something about that and we shall look back with gratitude at the better than evens here on BETDAQ.
⭕ 3.10 Salisbury A Group-3 sprint for juvenile fillies won twice in the last three seasons by Richard Hannon, who saddles Happy Romance after taking her out of a big prize the other day when the ground became heavy.
They don’t need the money after her amazing double, the Super Sprint and the York Sales race, totalling more than £170,000 to the winner.
This is a mere £17,864, so it all reads to me like making the most of a good thing while you can. Not one for 2021 though, like the same stable’s Anna Nerium (won this in 2017), she could go for a Spring strike before she remembers all this lung-busting at such a tender age.
Eight of the last nine winners have been drawn 6 or lower, and Hannon also saddles Rhythm (from 5), who won going away over the stiff Beverley five. But this is a level-weights stakes race and she is officially 18lb below Happy Romance, who is rated 97, out of stall 11.
Time Scale (8) won a 6f Listed on the July Course before a Group-2 fourth, also on the July Course (soft), to the unbeaten Albany winner Dandalla.
None of Jessica Harrington’s last 10 runners has been out of the first four (three winners), and on two lines to form Dickiedooda, well drawn in stall 2, warrants a rating of 96 or 97.
Rather than juggle between Happy Romance and Time Scale at similar offers around 5-2, I’ll ‘bet my money on a bobtailed nag’ and back Dickiedooda for a place at BETDAQ 10.0.
IT’S A KINGSCLERE CELEBRATION
⭕ 3.40 Salisbury A 6f handicap named after the flying Lochsong, the Stewards Cup and Nunthorpe winner who had earlier scored in the Ayr Gold Cup, aged four.
That’s the same age as Chil Chil, who is a half-sister to King Power Racing’s first superstar Beat the Bank, also trained by Andrew Balding. Lochsong was trained by Andrew’s father, Ian.
So I think we can safely say that today’s race is a Kingsclere celebration, and it will be a surprise to me – and Fortune Cookies followers – if Chil Chil ‘gets beat.’ Good value at around 3.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Bimble and Spring Of Love have won only their maidens so far, while Theotherside was readily outrun by Chil Chil at Ascot and, though better off at the weights, doesn’t appear to have the same scope as the winner.
⭕ 3.50 Haydock Showers are expected on the good-to-soft surface and that will suit the improver Without A Fight, who will relish the step up in trip.
Hochfield has a modest record on soft ground – 042000 – and is 040 at Haydock. He and front-runner Tribal Craft are likely to set it up for Without A Fight.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.30 Newcastle (win 10 nap)
BET 8pts win LIGHTS ON
3.10 Salisbury (win 10, place win 10)
BET 1pt win, 4pts place DICKIEDOODA
3.40 Salisbury
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 20pts win CHIL CHIL
DAQ MULTIPLES
4 x 1pt win trebles
1pt win acca
WITHOUT A FIGHT
(3.50 Haydock)
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