HOW TO GET FULL MARKS FROM THE RATINGS: They tell us ratings don’t matter. but.. TUESDAY DAQMAN: ‘Ajero is down to the mark at which he completed four wins in a row last Spring’.
WEDNESDAY DAQMAN: ‘Vintage Clouds is back on the mark off which he won the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival last March’. One heavily backed; one drifter.
WON 11-4 AJERO (from BETDAQ 6.2) Tuesday
2nd 14-1 VINTAGE CLOUDS (beaten threequarters of a length) Wednesday
ADD BETDAQ VALUE TO YOUR OWN RESEARCH: Today Daqman advises you not to be put off by so-called professionals trying to make a name for themselves. You can do just as well from your own research with the benefit of the value on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
BE YOUR OWN PROFESSIONAL
🔢 Ratings don’t count, says the man in the headlines. But, for me, he gets to be the holder of my mug-of-the-year award.. and it’s only February.
I’m talking about the so-called ‘professional punter’ who is telling everyone ratings are some kind of myth.
He’s certainly never heard of the trainer at the top of my Manipulation List, a man who can steer his horse up and down the handicap and not press the ‘go’ button until he’s spot on, or within a pound or two, of a previous winning mark.
Only a few ‘pro punters’ survive; the rest are Trumpian figures, who create a farrago of ‘secrets of success’, usually in an attempt to publicise a tipping site, which keeps them in cash to pay for their losers.
These ‘pros’ and bloggers come and they go. The big winners among them usually do it by owning their own horses (on which, strange as it may seem, ‘information’ is available only after they’ve won)!
They won’t tell you how they win but tell you why you lose. Example: ‘I don’t consider jockeys; they can’t come without the horse.’ Trainers? ‘Just when they are labeled out of form, they win at a big price.’ Systems? ‘That idea may win for you; it didn’t win for me.’
Therein lies the answer: how you choose to bet IS your system; stay with it, build on it, work hard at it, hone it by keeping records yourself.. and take only value offers on BETDAQ!
You won’t win all the time but you’ll have far more satisfaction and confidence in yourself than you’ll get following any ‘pro’.
The only secret is: YOUR method is YOUR business; dedicate yourself to being able to successfully speculate the price – to give you value – that you need about a horse, when relating it to others in the race.
Official ratings relate and compare and, in handicaps, are used as an equaliser. When they don’t equalise the chances, the critics say: there you are, you see. That they do on so many occasions, particularly on the Flat over the shorter distances, is an absolute eye-opener.
But don’t forget to temper your enthusiasm with other key factors of going, pace, distance and so on.
Unless you consider all elements on the day, you can’t be a slave to basic ratings or even to the alghorithmical compilation of the many facts and figures you may feed into your computer.
I personally leave something to the imagination: intuition (perhaps the accumulated knowledge of years of betting) has such a big part to play that digital anoraks eventually despair and say: How do you do that? I wish I had your horse sense.
I went to Ascot races with a top man in the computer game. He had a bank of computers in his hotel suite, which were geared to bet every time odds were available higher than the prices his future rating dictated.
‘Oh, look!’ he said, ‘I’ve just won at Belmont,’ then ‘ah that was a 3% earner from 12 bets at Victoria.’
We then went to Ascot and he showed not much interest in the horses, except to call his computer man at the hotel after each race and ask: ‘Did we win on that?’
That’s not my scene If it’s yours, good luck to you; BETDAQ will help you create a link with the market. You could make a steady living in the digital age.
Whether the official ratings or your own base weight-mark for a horse or the final figure, the future rating, spewed out by your computer after feeding it with all known factors, ratings are an essential ingredient of betting to win.
On any given day, they may not be the be-all and end-all, no more than any single item in a recipe for a cake. They are a strong sweetener, but you still need to make the dough!
SAMATIAN’S FIRST REAL RACE
⭕ 1.00 and 3.55 Huntingdon Kim Bailey’s had seven winners in the last fortnight, including Lots Of Luck at the last Huntingdon meeting at 15-2.
That was in line with his record at the course of 96 winners, his best on any track, and a level-stakes profit there of more than 50 points. Right place; right price.
Samatian could be another one. Related to a string of winners between 2m 4f and 3m, his dam’s sire is Cadoudal, responsible for such as Long Run and Big Buck’s.
Samatian runs today in his first handicap, stepped up from 2m for the first time, getting weight from all bar one in a class-5 field. It’s his first real chance and you can have Lots Of Luck (3.55) as a saver for the day.
His main adversary, Dorking Lad, has run twice at Huntingdon and been beaten, and he has been placed without winning every time his rating has been put up to 117, as it is today.
Lots Of Luck, a CD winner just 14 days ago, had been racing off 112 until dropped to 102 the last day and 107 today looks within his compass withe stable in such good form.
BETDAQ value 12.0 Samatian, 3.95 Lots Of Luck
KNIGHT MOVE TO FRONT RANK
⭕ 3.47 Southwell Corinthia Knight has been given a big shout here, dropped down two grades, having spent most of his life in class 2.
It was the first time he’d been rated in the 80s when he took in a class 4 in June 2020 and made virtually all, as they say.
Also significant that day was his drop back half a furlong from his usual 6f. Today’s race at Southwell is even less than 5f – six yards short, in fact – and I reckon that he could get over to lead and set up a back and lay.
Corinthia Knight is down 13lb since the autumn, as he goes for a 10th all-weather win for Archie Watson’s Lambourn yard which struck form 10 days back and is 3-8 since. Your BETDAQ value armour: 14.0
RIGHT TIME AND RIGHT RATING
⭕ 5.30 Newcastle Another one down in grade is Saisons d’Or, who has been placed every new season on his return, all of them at Newcastle. BETDAQ 5.5.
Last year he landed a February-March double at thankyou-very-much prices of 14-1 and 11-2 off marks of 68 and 71. He’s slap bang in the middle today on 70, and fresh as Spring.
After those two strikes in class 5, Saisons spent most of his season in class 4, often over a mile, but he is back down to the lower grade today and running over the 7f trip which has brought him four wins.
Whatever the grade (class 4 to class 6) – the last seven times at Newcastle! – Vindobala manages to get beat most of the time, a bridesmaid extraordinaire with form figures of 3313222.
Less expensive to follow, with two wins among returns at Newcastle this year (241014) is Abnaa, who has routinely performed off 61 and 62 all that time but is without his 7lb claimer this evening.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.00 Huntingdon (win 20)
BET 1.75pts win SAMATIAN
3.47 Southwell (win 20)
BET 1.5pts win CORINTHIA KNIGHT
3.55 Huntingdon (win 12)
BET 4pts win LOTS OF LUCK
5.30 Newcastle (win 20 nap)
BET 4.50pts win SAISONS D’OR
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
