DAQMAN LIFTS THE NAP BLUES: After his unlucky 10-1 ‘hidden horse’ on Monday, Daqman stuck to a top stable for the nap yesterday and was rewarded with a six-point profit on the day, thanks to Charlie Appleby’s Blue Trail (WON 5-4) at Kempton last night.
TAKING SIDES AT CHELTENHAM: Daqman yesterday revealed the recent story of his big winners at Cheltenham. Today he’s checking out which races at the festival are good for the Irish and which ones they lose. He also applies Lays Logic to find the best and worst races for backing or opposing the favourites.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE has Cheltenham ante-post price now.
CHELTENHAM LAYS LOGIC
First base. Which races do favourites win and which are the hot-pots likely to lose? Which races do the Irish expect to dominate again?
That’s one way to launch your search for ante-post bets, now available in BETDAQ Sportsbook on every race of the four-day Cheltenham festival next week.
It’s part of Daqman’s Lays Logic, which has so far scored 6-6 this season and has a huge Cheltenham record to protect. He will get down to individual names next week in his day-by-day analysis one week in advance.
Dig deep for yourselves, with these facts and figures for starters: the England v Ireland score and the winning favourites in each conditions race (handicaps next week)
❌ Potential favourites to oppose. NB: Stats based on SP return.
CHELTENHAM TUESDAY
1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle Only two winning favourites in the decade. Even Shishkin (6-1) and Altior (4-1), both trained Nicky Henderson, were NOT favourite when they won. Ireland win 6-4.
2.10 Arkle A favourite’s race (7-10). Ireland 5, England 5.
3.30 Champion Hurdle A favourite’s race (6-4). Ireland win 6-4.
4.10 Mares Hurdle Favourites lose 6-4, and three of those were by the same mare, Quevega. Ireland wins 9-1.
❌ 4.50 Boodles Juvenile Hurdle A car-crash race for favourites; only 1-10. Winners 25-1 (twice), 33-1 (three times), 40-1 and 80-1. Ireland 5, England 5.
❌ 5.30 NH Challenge Cup Novices Chase Eight consecutive losing favourites; most winners 8-1 to 14-1 SP. Ireland 6, England 4.
CHELTENHAM WEDNESDAY
1.30 Ballymore Novices Hurdle Favourites 5-5 but only one SP bigger than 8-1. Ireland 7-3.
2.10 Brown Advisory Novices Chase Favourites lose 6-4. Ireland lose 6-4.
3.30 Champion Chase Favourites lose 6-4. Ireland lose 8-2.
4.10 Cross-Country Favourites lose 8-2. Ireland 7, England 2, France 1
5.30 Champion Bumper Favourites lose 7-3, with plenty of outsiders winning: 25-1 (twice), 16-1 (twice), 11-1. Ireland wins 8-2.
CHELTENHAM THURSDAY
1.30 Turner Novices Chase Favourites lose 7-3 (including one co fav) but only one winner bigger than 9-1 at SP. Ireland wins 7-3.
2.50 Ryanair Chase Favourites lose 6-4. Ireland 5, England 5.
3.30 Stayers Hurdle Favourites lose 7-3, including big outsiders. Ireland loses 6-4
4.50 Mares Novices Hurdle New race: favourites 3-3. Ireland 6-0.
CHELTENHAM FRIDAY
1.30 Triumph Hurdle Favourites lose 7-3. Ireland wins 6-4
❌ 2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Favourites lose 9-1, with winners up to 33-1 (twice) and 50-1). Ireland wins 6-4.
3.30 Gold Cup Favourites lose 7-3. Ireland wins 6-4.
4.00 Hunters chase Favourites lose 7-3. Ireland wins 6-4.
4.50 Mares Chase New race last year, won by Ireland with the second favourite (the favourite was runner-up).
ROXZOFF IS A PROPER HORSE
⭕ 4.16 Newcastle Charles Hills has big plans for Roxzoff, who has won his first two starts over 7f this year, surprisingly as a relative – both close and down the dam’s line – of winners up to 2m.
To say that it helped to be short of room and switch several times when winning comfortably at Wolverhampton is to ignore how comfortably he travelled, how stylishly he moved when given the breaks. This seems to be a proper horse.
IT’S JUST INTUITION
⭕ 7.00 Southwell Intuitive is 4lb well in here compared to main market rival Al Rufaa and he may also enjoy a race fitness edge over his opponent who has been off the course for 152 days.
Intuitive’s trainer Simon and Ed Crisford are targeting races with extreme precision at the moment – four winners from their last six runners – and the four winners were all favourites so the ‘right’ ones have been doing the business.
Intuitive ran well here last time in a similar class 2 but seemed to struggle at the end of the mile so the drop back down to seven furlongs looks a big positive.
The Gosden’s run Al Rufaa who is quite hard to assess. He is a previous winner on the all-weather over this trip at Kempton but his record after a break doesn’t fill with confidence: 252 day break (9th), 336 day break (7th).
ART LOOKS IN THE PICTURE
⭕ 8.30 Southwell Myriad looks set to be sent off a short priced favourite after a decisive win at Chelmsford where he showed improved form for both the step up in trip and handicap debut.
He’s been given a 6lb hike and I wouldn’t be in a huge rush to back him at short odds to go back to back. He has the potential but Art Expert has the experience and overall the more convincing CV.
He was only narrowly beaten at Wolverhampton last time out and off the same mark can pounce if there are any weaknesses in the favourite.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all staked to win 10 points)
BET 8.3pts win (nap) ROXZOFF (4.16 Newcastle)
BET 6.1pts win INTUITIVE (7.00 Southwell)
BET 5.0pts win ART EXPERT (8.30 Southwell)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
