PITMAN’S SHOCK: FAVOURITE OUT: The ante-post favourite for the Northumberland Plate, the Royal Ascot winner Pique Sous, is out of the race, along with another Willie Mullins entry, Simenon. He now relies on Lucky Bridle.
EASY ABC GUIDE WITH X FACTOR: Here is the key to Daqman’s guide to the 20 declared, with the X Factor:
A Aged four to six (8 out of 10)
B Won over 2m (8-10)
C Class-2 minimum win (7-10)
D Rated 92-102 (6-10)
E Won on firm ground since juvenile
X Two or fewer races this season (7-10)
GABRIAL A NUGGET IN GOLD SEAM
ABCDE Angel Gabrial
Richard Fahey has hit a gold seam, with seven winners in the last week, training here for Dr Marwan Koukash. Angel Gabrial stepped up to 2m for the first time at Ripon in April and revealed stamina and courage.
That wasn’t be enough to stop Sueigoo’s late run in the Chester Cup. But they are handicapped to run a dead-heat here, and both have been saved up since that day.
ABCDE Buthelezi
I can’t give this one the X Factor, though he’s raced only twice this year, because both runs were in steeplechases. In fact, though he seems to have all the credentials, he hasn’t won on the Flat since May 2011 and hasn’t been seen on the Flat for more than two years.
ABCDE Noble Silk
The one he beat at Haydock in May (Nearly Caught) has been given a chance to turn the tables at the weights.
It was Noble Silk’s first win on turf and came 14 months after his last AW success. But trainer Lucy Wadham thought the surface was on the easy side at Haydock and this horse loves top of the ground.
ABCDX Suegioo
Kept to a maximum of 14f until the Chester Cup (2m 2f) when landing a touch for Dr Marwan Koukash with Shwaiman (6th) behind. Handicapped to dead-heat with runner-up, Angel Gabrial. Saved up for this.
ABCX Ardlui
2m winner at Ripon last season but well beaten in this year’s renewal of the same race when 30 lengths adrift of Angel Gabrial. Not run on firm ground for three years.
ABC Oriental Fox
Raised to Group level since winning the Cesarewitch trial, then running sixth in the real thing last October. Soft ground against him, and out of his depth on firm when sixth in the Ascot Gold Cup.
ABDX Lucky Bridle
Difficult to keep right and won only once (maiden hurdle) in more than two years. Highly tried as a three-year-old and then as a hurdler – out of his depth – at Punchestown.
ABD Totalize
Penalized for winning a class 3 at York but that’s got him into the mix here. He reached the frame at this level at Goodwood first run back but is 8b higher now.
ACE Glenard
Fifth to Suegioo in the Chester Cup but also behind Noble Silk and Big Thunder in other starts between 14-16f, and 6lb higher than for his last win (12f firm).
ACDE Dark Crusader
Fine hat-trick last term, completed in the Melrose at York (14f soft). No show from her since, and moderate last of eight at Cork in May.
ACDE Van Percy
Scored two from three this year, getting 14f at Newmarket, first win for a year or so. Trainer Andrew Balding claims that this one is an ‘out and out stayer’.
ACDX Nearly Caught
Soft-ground winner on turf. Out of his depth in the John Porter, but giving 9lb to the winner when outpointed by Noble Silk (2m, good) at Haydock in May. Had only eight races.
ADEFX Boite
He’s had only six. Won his maiden on the firm and was then pitched into Group races last season: unplaced Italian Derby but excellent third to Leading Light in the Queens Vase, upped to 2m, on firm. But not seen since last July.
ADEX Big Thunder
Another we have not seen this year, and has not won when fresh. Has won on firm but never higher than class 3 (fifth of seven in sole class-2 try).
ADX Tropical
Beat Repeater’s stablemate, returning from 233 days off when third to Van Percy on firm at Newmarket. Fifth only start at 2m, and won only once since his maiden (AW two years ago).
AB Agreement
Well in rear in the Ascot Stakes and won his 2013 races in Ireland on soft-heavy. In between he’s won a juvenile hurdle but failed to step up on that.
AD Repeater
His last success was over a mile at Ripon in 2011 but he’s kept top-class company (3rd and 4th in successive Doncaster Cups), with nine Pattern races since his last handicap. A kinky Montjeu.
AX Mawaqeet
Behind Suiegoo in the Chester Cup but close second over 2m (firm) at York last summer. Hurdles run latest.
AX Waterclock
No show Chester Cup and Ascot Stakes. All his best form at Newmarket, including Cesarewitch runner-up last season. But not won since his maiden in 2011.
BD Sir Ector
Seven-year-old and high in the handicap, as winner of the Ulster Derby and Irish November Handicap. Second in a Listed on firm last season.
* RESERVES: Poyle Thomas and Hassle
JUST FANTASY OR IS 9.0 ‘ENORMOUS’?
2.20 Yarmouth The one they all wanted early mouse this morning was Belardo, highly regarded and related to top juveniles, a shade of odds on with BETDAQ layers.
But, as a result, those who bet the experience in two-year-old races could get 5.0 Siren’s Cove who, as a filly, receives 5lb from the favourite – that’s around a two-lengths start – and I fancied taking that with a view to some cover on Belardo. I left in an ask for even money.
2.30 Newcastle Richard Fahey, the angel of the North to many punters, is going for a hat-trick in this race, though his form figures over five years (31-11) suggest it’s more of a four-timer.
His Vimy Ridge has so far raced with cut in the ground, but the sire’s progeny have their best record on firm, and Vimy Ridge is crying out for this step up from the minimum.
Vimy Ridge finished in front of Sea Wolf at Beverley and I’m not sure that the firm ground will suit Michael Dods’ long-striding sort. Aktabantay has found one too good at 5f, then at 6f, but he was odds on this morning because the one that beat him at Nottingham on the last day was seventh in the Coventry at Royal Ascot.
However, he ran around at the finish of the race and was a 4-1 on loser. Greenness or a kink? I don’t want to guess at the very short price today.
The horse immediately behind Vimy Ridge in each of his last three starts has been a winner, yet he is 4.8 on BETDAQ as I write for a yard that targets the race. I again left in an ask for evens the favourite as a saver, but I doubt I’ll get it.
3.20 Yarmouth John Quinn, who will be dining off The Wow Factor for the rest of the season, brings Fantasy Gladiator down from Yorkshire to Newmarket-by-the-sea for a repeat of last year’s win.
The favourites Pearl Nation and Vallarta haven’t scored since 2012 and Fantasy Gladiator is enormous at 9.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
The snag is whether Sir Mark Prescott is ready to start running rings round the layers in the way of sequence horses, rising through the ranks.
Or are those heady days over for this master trainer (one runner on Flat turf this year). They’re certainly laying Don’t Me! She was out to 15.5 early mouse.
3.30 Newcastle (Seaton Delaval Handicap) Richard Fahey has withdrawn his soft-ground horse, Hi There, but rival Yorkshire trainer, David O’Meara runs a seven-year-old, Marcret, that’s won only once in more than two years and, again, only on soft ground.
Fort Bastion is 5lb higher than when winning the Thirsk Hunt Cup and only 2lb higher than for his short-head defeat in the (Listed) Hambleton, a line through Ingleby Angel suggesting that was an improved run.
Dance And Dance is often thereabouts but is eight now and lacks that final drive. It could be Norse Blues’ turn but he was behind another old-timer, Dubai Dynamo, at Ayr.
Baraweez is up two grades and 7lb. but is lightly raced and, when he beat Dubai Dynamo at Ayr in the Spring, the ground was firm, though not summer-firm.
Heavy Metal was a very useful two-year-old but, skip a long losing season, and he’s been struggling recently until driven out to win last time. He’s also up in class and in rating, and Bold Prediction is a bridesmaid – form figures 3222 – needing help form the handicapper.
There’s an old racing adage (system doing well; send more money) about backing ‘top and bottom of the handicap’. The theory is that the one has earned his high mark and the other has an ominous pull in the weights.
At 4.4 Baraweez and 8.2 Fort Bastion on BETDAQ, I could dutch the pair in a 106% list in the orange, but I wouldn’t blame you if you just went win and place Fort Bastion at excellent value in an eight-runner race.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points. Divide 20 by the stake and add one, then you know what BETDAQ offer was taken this morning).
BET 5pts win SIREN’S COVE (2.20 Yarmouth)
BET 5.2pts win VIMY RIDGE (2.30 Newcastle)
BET 2.5pts win (nap) FANTASY GLADIATOR (3.20 Yarmouth)
BET 5.8pts win BARAWEEZ and 2.7pts win FORT BASTION (3.30 Newcastle)
BET 8pts win FELWAH (7.10 Leicester)
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