INTERNATIONAL ONE-TWO AT YORK: Daqman delivered a double whammy of two winning bets in one race in the York International yesterday, with a bull’s-eye win-and-place bet at 16.0 on BETDAQ about the runner-up and 10 points on the winner. His one-two was:
AUSTRALIA WON 8-13
THE GREY GATSBY 2nd 12-1
FIVE MORE WANTED FOR THE 100: In fact, you could have had a third winning bet if you’d backed them for a straight forecast with Ladbrokes (paid 7.6-1). Pricewise got one back, so the score between them in the value challenge is Daqman 95, Pricewise 34. Five more for 100 up! His standings are:
* CHALLENGE: Daqman 95, Pricewise 34
* VALUE: Bull’s-Eye Bets: + 213 points
* MAXUMUM: Banker bets + 78.73 points
PROVIDENCE STANDS PROUD AT 12.5 OFFERS
1.55 York Although one of the four was low drawn, the one-two in a pair of sprint handicaps here yesterday all came up the stands side, the winners installed 15 and 16.
I repeat that they were handicaps and this opening sales race is not, with just the top two penalised, and the only ones out of kilter with a level-playing-field 8st 11lb.
It doesn’t help that the official top rated – Fast Act, Kool Company, Union Rose, Mubtaqhaa and Mukhmal – are all, every one, drawn in double figures.
Of these, Fast Act and Mubtaghaa have gained their standing from just four runs each and, on that score, Markaz in the highest stall of the lot, should also be an improver and is added to the list.
Markaz won well at Ascot but was probably more impressive when the moral winner in a Goodwood nursery, beaten only half a length giving weight to the winner.
Supersprint third Fast Act was also at Goodwood, also beaten half a length, but in much higher class, runner-up in the Molecomb, with a hat-trick winner just behind, Mukhmal in fourth and Union Rose fifth.
Mubtaghaa had kept similar good company, third in the Windsor Castle but failing to step up to Group company in the July Stakes.
What is more, the Windsor Castle runner-up was Union Rose, which gives Fast Act a considerable advantage here on collateral form.
In fact, Kool Company is the overall-form horse, winner of the Railway Stakes (on firm) and the Prix Robert Papin (in the mud) before running into Dick Whittington in the Phoenix Strakes.
But, in the decade, only one winner of this could carry a Group penalty – he was a Windsor Castle winner – and, though Kool Company’s class and stamina for 6f are assured, whereas Fast Act steps up from the minimum, the 7lb difference between them is huge at this stage of their careers.
The ‘wrong’ price this morning is long-time-aimed-at-this New Providence, if only the far rail runs well (she’s drawn 3). William Buick is having a great year and 12.5 contains the extra risk. Gets nearly a stone from Kool Company.
2.30 York (Lowther Stakes) This Group 2 enjoyed a purple patch from 1995 to 2003, with three 1,000 Guineas winners taking the prize, and it’s contained two subsequent Cheveley Park heroines in the last four seasons.
As with Kool Company in the opener, Richard Hannon brings an exposed sort to the race in Tiggy Wiggy, whose Queen Mary second divided Sandown National Stakes and Newbury Supersprint successes.
Tiggy Wiggy would be the first in the decade to come to this table and take the centerpiece with more than four runs on her CV.
Looking to confirm York form in the Spring is Patience Alexander, who beat Tiggy Wiggy half a length that day, but has disappointed since, going for the Albany (fair third) instead of the Queen Mary and last of four at Haydock recently.
That race in the Spring at York points to Cursory Glance, who had Patience Alexander back in third. That was two out of two for the daughter of an American stallion who has got Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winners.
Also two from two, but giving away a 3lb Group-2 penalty is Anthem Alexander, which takes this form analysis full circle, since she was winner of the Queen Mary when Tiggy Wiggy was second (Pastoral Girl 9th).
The 3lb difference in weights today may tip the scales in favour of Cursory Glance over Anthem Alexander. This pair and Tiggy Wiggy were within a point of each other in the BETDAQ market this morning.
TONTO TOP NOTCH GAMBLE ON BETDAQ AT 19.5
3.05 York Despite last year’s blip, three and four years olds have dominated this race (9-10) in the decade but so have big prices, with the last three winners 12-1, an 25-1 (twice).
The draw pattern is repeated year on year, with a far-rail runner vying for success with one high drawn taking the stands-side route: so four one-twos out of five have been 13-3, 13-1, 1-10, 14-5.
Kosika will find it hard to get across to lead from stall 16, and a rise of 9lb may have stopped her last time, while Russian Realm has been generally disappointing. There’s not much between him and Gabrial’s Kaka.
The questions for Red Avenger, drawn 1, are whether, as a hold-up horse, he will be able to keep his place on the inside, and whether he can reproduce hos first-time blinkered win at Goodwood.
Top Notch Tonto, whose stable had a 25-1 winner here yesterday, was a Group-3 horse last year. He’s been dropped 10lb since the start of the season and Mikey Ennis claims another 7lb.
Brian Ellison is bubbling over about this one but he really needed a shower or two of rain for Tonto. It rode slow in five of the six races yesterday and I just hope it hasn’t dried out too much.
The three-year-olds, Passing Star and Parbold, were well in rear in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and seem to be on high marks for what they’ve done.
But Passing Star could be hidden, as an AW hat-trick winner, dropped from the Pattern but with 7f at Goodwood too short for him last time (switched twice). Further Group entries suggest that he has a big chance here.
I took 13.5 Passing Star and 19.5 Top Notch Tonto with a bull’s-eye bet in mind, and I tried to use the leverage of their big offers to boost the return of doubles with Taghrooda.
PLAN IT! VENUS PLACE BET TO TAG TAGHROODA
3.40 York (Yorkshire Oaks) Thousands of punters yesterday were putt off betting their hard-earned on Australia after Aidan O’Brien’s worries about his fitness. The horse proverbially sluiced in.
Another famous Ballydoiyle phrase about a horse after a break is ‘he’s just starting out’. Are these wobblies, nerves or is someone getting a better price?
It is deemed not seemly to criticize the holy men of racing but, if Joseph O’Brien was ‘wasting’ down to 8st 12lb for a part-ufit horse, and that horse then bolts clear of King George form, the least we can observe, tongue in cheek, is: what’s the beast going to do when he IS fit?
Yer man was worried that Australia had put on weight ‘alarmingly’ and was now ‘like a five-year-old’. But, Aidan, didn’t you tell us earlier in the year that he was still a baby and would grow into himself as the year went on. You now have the machine you thought you had when you said ‘he’s the best I’ve trained.’ So can we all enjoy this horse, please!
O’Bxien came out with another of his routine gems after the race, when asked where Australia will go next: ‘The lads will decide that.’ Frankly, Aidan we need a bit more decision from you which will enable us to have a proper bet. We know that racing relies on betting but that it isn’t run for punters, but don’t rub it in, sir.
John Gosden, on the other hand, is already planning his Arc raid with Taghrooda, according to the Racing Post, by-passing the Vermeille ‘because it would be two races in three weeks.”
While Australia was backable as a banker, Taghrooda is not going to give us an attack of the swollen wallets. Again I want a place bet, then, but this time the price about the winner (that’s another name for Taghrooda) is so thin, I can’t even use her as the saver.
In such circumstances, I shall have a heavier place than win bet on an alternative selection but you can still do a forecast with Ladbrokes.
On a line through Lustrous (and Bracelet), Venus De Milo, back to her winning trip today, narrowly has the beating of Tapestry and Volume, and Joseph O’Brien rides her instead of Tapestry. I’m betting at around 4.0 the place.
4.20 York Dermot Weld sent Pale Mimosa (2012) straight from a maiden to win this over a Sir Michael Stoute favourite. Now his Starlet could perform the same feat over the Stoute hope Waila. One-two, one two today, then.
4.55 York Dutch Rose goes for a hat-trick in this race, 9lb higher than last year, with the mare’s form figures at York 111100. But Stoute seems to have the Bragging rights here with a late developer.
Bragging was not raced as a two-year-old but demolished her field at Newmarket and has been working like a Pattern-race possible on the Newmarket gallops. Looks short at 3.85 but could cruise up. I’m bullish!
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes as declared):
BET (to win 20) 3.7pts win FAST ACT, and 1.7pts win and place NEW PROVIDENCE (1.55 York)
BET (to win 20) 7pts win CURSORY GLANCE and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) ANTHEM ALEXANDER (2.30 York)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 4pts win and place PASSING STAR, and 2.7pts win and place TOP NOTCH TONTO (3.05 York)
BET (to win 20, both win and place) 1.1pts win and 6pts place VENUS DE MILO (3.40 York)
BET (to win 20) 4pts win STARLET (4.20 York)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 16pts win (nap) BRAGGING (4.55 York)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 3pts win doubles Passing Star and Top Notch Tonto (3.05 York) with Taghrooda (3.40 York), plus 2 x 2pt win trebles the same ones with Mondlicht (5.25 Newton Abbot)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£50 FREE BET
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
