11-4 SAGARO WINNER NAPPED: Daqman landed a big-race nap and lay double yesterday across the cards at Ascot (Sagaro Stakes) and Punchestown, following his big-odds start at 16-1 and 9-1 on Tuesday. Yesterday’s winning bets, adding up to seven in two days for 77 points profit, were:
WON 11-4 Mizzou (nap)
WON (lay) Supasundae (unplaced 15-8f)
WON 2-1 Bellshill (saver)
14 WINNING LAYS OUT OF 15: Mizzou gave Daqman a 1-1 draw with Pricewise on the day (scores now 18-7) and Supasundae was lay number 14 out of 15 (for a 93% strike rate), as follows:
WON (lay) Cold As Ice (unplaced 4-6 favourite)
WON (lay) Lancelot Du Lac (2nd 4-1)
WON (place lay) John Reel (unplaced 12-1)
WON (lay) Mister Universe (unplaced 7-1)
WON (lay) Kayf Moss (2nd 4-1)
WON (lay) Space Oddity (4th 11-4 favourite)
WON (lay) Found (3rd 9-10 favourite)
WON (place lay) Silviniaco Conti (pulled up 12-1)
Lost (place lay) The Last Samuri (2nd 8-1 favourite)
WON (lay) Alice Springs (3rd 5-4 favourite)
WON (lay) Landofhopeandglory (unplaced 15-8 favourite)
WON (place lay) Henri Parry Morgan (UR 5-1 favourite)
WON (place lay) Bishops Road (fell 20-1)
WON (place lay) Saint Are (unplaced 25-1
WON (lay) Supasundae (unplaced 15-8 favourite)
THE MAN WHO MAKES HIS OWN HEADLINES: Here are Daqman’s headline selections today, with his nap a 15.5 outsider and other bets at 11.5, 12.5, 21.0, 30.0 and 45.0, plus a favourite to lay.
DOUVAN TO GET BEAT? IT’S ANYBODY’S GUESS
ELUSIVE! BUT SHE’S HERE AT LAST AND 30.0
THE DUKE AND THE LADY ARE J. P. JOKERS
BLESS THE WINGS COULD LAND A TOUCHE
TRIPLE WHAMMY IN MIND WITH GOLD AT 45.0
IT’S GOING TO BE LIKE FATHER LIKE SONNY
DOUVAN TO GET BEAT? IT’S ANYBODY’S GUESS
Here’s a six-timer you wish you’d had. Imagine betting in the BETDAQ green that all these Willie Mullins horses ‘got beat’ consecutively: Valseur Lido, Un De Sceaux, Yorkhill, Vautour, Djakadam, Don Poli.
It’s all happened in the five days since Sandown on Friday through Punchestown’s first two days, the first four of them no bigger than 5-4 SP; three of them odds on.
The lesson, rubbed in by the Punchestown Gold Cup yesterday – as if we didn’t know already – is that horses are not machines and at the end of a tiring season may have no more, or less than usual, to give.
Today Douvan may throw in the towel. Or he may not. Unless I hear something detrimental, I won’t lay him, and we can keep our hand in with his inclusion in our Daq Multiples.
But there’s nothing to stop you laying short-odds favourites like these at little expense, and you could have had a field day, adding Cue Card to your Mullins sextet.
But those were lays based on the one principal: that the horse may, or may not, be knackered! That’s not form.
I like to have several reasons for laying a horse, as my lays are designed to pay for your betting. I pledged to go for a target (currently more than 93%) that is reliable as a feed for your wallet. I need more than guesswork to do that. But today’s is still brave!
ELUSIVE! BUT SHE’S HERE AT LAST AND 30.0
3.40 Punchestown This is likely to have a massive overround in the bookmakers’ market. I tried to warn you yesterday that they’d reached 133, 134 and 139% on the opening day.
But, in a race which I analysed at 111% on BETDAQ, that green-eyed yellow idol called greed reached a new level when the big-field handicap opener was tagged in the Racing Post as ‘Total SP Per Cent: 148’.
If you remember, I was hoping Elusive Ivy would get into that race, the Martinstown Final, but she missed the cut by one and ended up first reserve, despite having the same weight as today in a similar handicap (123 top rating).
Maybe it’s a blessing in disguise. This race is usually won by an improving five-year-old, but they look thin on the ground today.
Best of them may be The Brock Inn, a good second in a big field at Fairyhouse, when Elusive Ivy – now better off at the weights – was fifth.
I took 21.0 The Brock Inn and 30.0 Elusive Ivy early mouse in the BETDAQ orange. The jockeys booked for them have 43% and 50% records with the trainers involved.
THE DUKE AND THE LADY ARE J. P. JOKERS
4.15 Punchestown One horse that won’t be jaded today is Jacksonslady. She’s been seen only twice more since winning this last year off 135.
Though 5lb higher, she has first-time blinkers to sharpen her up for a stable in form, and she is preferred by Barry Geraghty over Bold Henry, who needs rain.
Jessica Harrington’s stable is flying with eight winners in a week, two here at the festival, and Rock The World, was third when favourite in the Grand Annual (Sizing Codelco unseated early), but has to bounce back from a poor effort at Aintree.
I can’t have Sizing Codelco, with Henry De Bromhead’s losing run an additional factor in laying Supasundae yesterday.
At only seven Codelco could improve, as could another Jessica Harrington runner, Mr Fifty One, but I can’t imagine him giving 12lb to that good jumper Gentleman Duke.
The Duke is something of a hidden horse, because top of the ground is essential for him. His form on good/good to yielding ground is 210110301.
I’ll back the J P McManus pair, Jacksonslady (6.4) and Gentleman Duke (11.5), on the grounds that they have been saved up for this and both go well fresh.
BLESS THE WINGS COULD LAND A TOUCHE
4.50 Punchestown (La Touche) Twice a winner of this, including last year, Uncle Junior is 15 now, a year older than when Spot Thedifference scored at an evergreen age, and this is his last race.
Quantitativeasing was a neck behind Uncle Junior last year but fourth the year before to Jacks Island (winner) and Uncle Junior (3rd), left with too much ground to make.
Nina Carberry rejects him in favour of Josies Orders, who has to give 9lb to the progressive Bless The Wings (5.6 in a 107% BETDAQ orange), little more than a length behind him when they were placed in the Cheltenham Cross-Country last month, with the other principals in today’s race in rear.
Wings was stepping up on his form with some of the same horses over the CD last November, and Jamie Codd has got to know him.
The snag is that Bless The Wings then ran second in a photo-finish to the Irish Grand National, and obviously that can take it out of a horse.
We’re back to that Douvan guesswortk about the jading of a horse, but Gordon Elliott seems confident that Bless The Wings is ‘tough and very durable.’
TRIPLE WHAMMY IN MIND WITH GOLD AT 45.0
5.30 Punchestown (Ladbrokes Champion Stayers’ Hurdle) This has long been the target for One Track Mind, who swerved Cheltenham. He has never before raced on a clockwise track and but is one of several potential improvers in a cracking contest.
Alpha Des Obeaux is dining out on his seven-lengths second to Thistlecrack in the World Hurdle but, in fact, he’s been six times second from seven starts, still standing.
His one success came on heavy ground in a race more than a minute slow, and I feel a lay coming on.
Shaneshill got just as close to Thistlecrack at Aintree, and is three times the price in offers on BETDAQ this morning in an orange of sensational value (102%).
Diamond King was impressive in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham but now has to step up the extra distance. He will get 3m as a chaser – that’s his new role next season – but will he as a hurdler?
If In Doubt has been placed over the 3m at both Cheltenham and Aintree but a third festival in six weeks has been the undoing of better horses than this one so far this week.
One that’s been overlooked, and is getting the mare’s allowance, is Legacy Gold, second to Annie Power on today’s course in February and staying-on third to Vroum Vroum Mag in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham.
We’ll oppose the favourite as too short at 2.52, too often the bridesmaid and needing far more rain than is likely.
One Track Mind is the fresh horse, big at 12.5, and Legacy Gold the rank outsider at 45.0 win and 9.6 a place. Yes, it’s Triple Whammy day!
IT’S GOING TO BE LIKE FATHER LIKE SONNY
6.05 Punchestown Cork trainer John Walsh is the punter’s pal, leading jumps trainer in Ireland in terms of level-stakes profit on all bets.
He landed back-to-back wins with Sonny B under Brian O’Connell, then put a boy up (who was unseated) in Sonny’s prep race for this.
O’Connell is back in the saddle and, despite superlatives from the race readers at his local Cork track (‘cantering from start to finish’ and ’his hurdling was better than ever’ ), he is 15.5 on BETDAQ as I write.
Success has come on soft-heavy and his ability to handle the sounder surface may be questioned. But not if you look at the legacy of his sire: progeny of the stallion Spadoun get their best results (21%) on good to firm!
6.40 Punchestown (Ryanair Novice Chase) Douvan
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless otherwise stated)
BET 1.5pts win and place THE BROCK INN and 1pt win and place ELUSIVE IVY (3.40 Punchestown)
BET 5.5pts win JACKSONSLADY and 2.8pts win GENTLEMAN DUKE (4.15 Punchestown)
BET (to win 20) 4.3pts win BLESS THE WINGS (4.50 Punchestown)
LAY to win 10pts ALPHA DES OBEAUX, and BET (to win 20) 1.75pts win and place ONE TRACK MIND, and (to win 20 on the place) 1pt win and 2.3 place LEGACY GOLD (5.30 Punchestown)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 3.4pts win and place (nap) SONNY B (6.05 Punchestown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Jacksons Lady and Gentleman Duke (4.15 Punchestown) with Douvan (6.40 Punchestown) and Sonny B (6.05 Punchestown)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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