ASCOT OUTSIDERS SCOOP £1.8m: The good-to-soft of the first two days has changed to good-to-firm at Royal Ascot; will it help? Only three winning favourites so far (River Tiber, Vauban and Gregory) and today is usually their worst day. ‘Shock’ winners of £1.8m in first prizes have included 7-1, 9-1, 10-1 (twice), 14-1, 16-1, 20-1, 22-1, 25-1, 33-1. Says Daqman. ‘I’ve had two returns a day but, as ever, will only remember the one that got away: Random Harvest, 22-1 to win 100 points, beaten a neck.’
EMILY FIRM? NO SHE’S A DRIFTER: It’s Gold Cup day today and Emily Dickinson was a big drifter on the firm ground, out to 12.5 on BETDAQ.
TREBLE OF FAVORITES TO LAY?
LAYS LOGIC: The Norfolk Stakes (2.30), Britannia Handicap (5.00) and Buckingham Palace Handicap (6.10) are very poor races for favourites. Total winners of the three put together in 10 years is nil: 0-26
⭕ 2.30 Royal Ascot (Norfolk Stakes, 5f) STATS: See Daqman last Thursday.
Wesley Ward claims that American Rascal is as good as 2013 winner No Nay Never. The colt’s dam, Lady Aurelia won the Queen Mary and the Kings Stand, both at the royal meeting of course.
The other American runner in this, No Nay Mets, is a son of No Nay Never. ‘Rascal’ and our FORTUNE COOKIE, the National Stakes winner Elite Status are drawn 1 and 4, while No Nay Mets (15) is on the other side.
BETDAQ value 2.5 Elite Status, 6.8 American Rascal
BIG BERTINELLI AT THE GALLOP
⭕ 3.05 Royal Ascot (King George V Handicap, 1m 4f) STATS: See Daqman last Thursday.
Six out of seven winners carried below 9st; then along came Secret State to score last year, a cut above the usual handicapper.
That might apply to Bertinelli this year, the step up in trip much needed after his winning the London Gold Cup (1m 2f), and going clear in the ratings for this.
Last year’s London Gold Cup winner, Israr, was third to Secret State in this race, beaten a head off 95. Bertinelli has 104. But he is a big horse and a galloper, a beautiful mover who can’t be ignored.
Davideo is another in-former galloper and Valiant King is still in the Irish Derby and St Leger; he’s won with plenty of cut in the ground but close relatives have scored on firm.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 7 Bertinelli, 9.8 Valiant King
RIBBLESDALE FOR FRANKEL FILLY
⭕ 3.40 Royal Ascot (Ribblesdale Stakes) STATS: See Daqman last Thursday.
Team Gosden has won four out of the last six Ribblesdales and now saddles the Frankel filly Al Asifah, who was impressive at Goodwood 11 days back.
Novakai this week let down Soul Sister’s Musidora, in which Infinite Cosmos was third and Midnight Mile fourth.
Warm Heart and Bluestocking were first and second in the Newbury trial at the Spring meeting
ELDAR v EMILY ABOUT THE GOING
⭕ 4.20 Royal Ascot (Ascot Gold Cup, 2m 4f) STATS: See Daqman last Thursday.
1 ELDAR ELDAROV A Dubawi, like Emily Dickinson, but won the Queen’s Vase here last year on good to firm before taking the St Leger on good to soft.
2 EMILY DICKINSON (FORTUNE COOKIE) ‘Hope is the thing with feathers that perches in the soul and sings the tune without the words and never stops at all.’
Aidan O’Brien has always expected the filly to come into her own over a trip and my hope is that there’s enough juice in the ground for her.
3 SUBJECTIVIST Winner of the Dubai Gold Cup before landing the Ascot ‘gold’ and finally putting Stradivarius in the shade. Second to Broome at Meydan this time around but sure to be cherry ripe, Johnston style, for this.
Coltrane is consistent; won the Ascot Stakes here last year and the Sagaro this. Echoes In Rain seldom runs a bad race but is just short of class.
Courage Mon Ami has that ‘could be anything’ look, carrying the Frankel flag but so far successful only at a low level. This sort of thing has probably passed Trueshan by, but Hollie Doyle has had an amazing week.
ROYAL CAN RULE BRITANNIA
⭕ 5.00 Royal Ascot (Britannia Handicap, 1m) STATS: See Daqman last Thursday.
The effect of the draw has been a big debating point as any apparent bias swings one way and then the other. With the massive fields this week, you have little choice but to take one on the low side, one on high…at least!
The difference between the two sides might be checked out today in the finishing positions of Quantum Impact and Saxon King, who should be neck and neck on the ratings from their York one-three, but are drawn wide apart.
1 ROYAL CAPE (gate 2) If John Gosden and the ante-post market are right, Covey, winner of the Silver Bowl at Haydock (1m, good to firm), will go well in Saturday’s Group-3 Jersey Stakes.
In that case, the Haydock runner-up, Royal Cape, who might have finished closer but for hitting the rail, should be placed at least today.
2 FORT VEGA (33) could have been in that Jersey Stakes line-up but connections have thought better of it because of his strong-traveling style, potentially better suited to this lower level with its cavalry charge. The rail should help him last out.
3 QUANTUM IMPACT (stall 6) It’s not been Frankie Dettori’s week so far but it was quite a day for Ralph Beckett yesterday with the one-two in the Royal Hunt Cup.
Quantum Impact went clear away at York on fast ground, with third place going to Saxon King (in 30 today), who won before and afterwards.
4 BLESS (stall 10) Bred for stamina but is a distance winner at speed on AW and Stephane Pasquier should make good use of this mix. Could be let in lightly on estimate of French form. A win-100 each way at 27.0.
BETDAQ value 9.1 Quantum Impact, 22 Royal Cape, 29 Fort Vega
PADDINGTON DRUMROLL POINTER
5.35 Royal Ascot (Hampton Court Stakes, 1m 2f) STATS: See Daqman last Thursday.
The low stalls should whizz around the corner on the firm today: 5, 7, 7, 2, 6, 12, 8, 6, 3, 2 in the last 10 years but sometimes smallish fields.
Oaks third Caernarfon, Epsom Derby sixth Waipiro and French Derby fifth Epictetus (out of a worrying one stall) are obvious candidates, I was impressed more by Torito at Epsom, and Frankie may be on the wrong Gosden today.
But despite his penalty for winning the Gallinule, I am with Drumroll. He had been comfortably beaten by Paddington in the Tetrarch, but only half as far as Chaldean in the battle of the Guineas winners earlier this week.
FINAL SPIN TODAY FOR CROUPIER
6.10 Royal Ascot (Buckingham Palace Handicap, 7f) STATS: See Daqman last Thursday.
Montassib (stall 6) failed to get a clear run from the one stall when a good fifth in this race last year and was back to form the last day with this in mind again. BETDAQ 13.5.
Lir Speciale (7) is on the upgrade for a stable that’s already had a winner here this week, and could reward for a place at big odds.
The wheel of fortune has turned for 10.0 offer Croupier; he needs it firm. If you delete his soft-surface form and his seasonal debuts, his returns are 1111.
DAQMAN’S BETS
FORTUNE COOKIES (20pt stakes)
2.30 ELITE STATUS
4.20 EMILY DICKINSON
2.30 Royal Ascot (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win AMERICAN RASCAL
3.05 Royal Ascot (win 30 each)
BET 5pts win BERTINELLI
BET 3.5pts win VALIANT KING
3.40 Royal Ascot (supernap)
BET 20pts win AL ASIFAH
4.20 Royal Ascot (win 20)
BET 5pts win ELDAR ELDAROV
5.00 Royal Ascot (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 6.25pts win QUANTUM IMPACT
BET 2.4pts win ROYAL CAPE
BET 1.75pts win and place FORT VEGA
5.35 Royal Ascot (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 7pts win DRUMROLL
6.10 Royal Ascot (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5pts win CROUPIER
BET 4pts win MONTASSIB
Ascot win-and-place to win 50
BET 2pts win and place BLESS
(5.00 race)
BET 2.5pts win and place LIR SPECIALE
(6.10 race)
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