EIGHT STRIKES IN SIX DAYS: Daqman’s current winner-a-day sequence reached eight returns in six days yesterday and he tries a value nap at Salisbury.
Wednesday
WON 6-4 RAHEENA
Tuesday
WON 5-6 EAST INDIA DOCK ROAD
WON (3rd 12-1) w/p REGAL ULIXES
Monday
WON 6-5 BOBACIOUS
Sunday
WON 85-40 SHE’S QUALITY (nap)
Saturday
WON 13-2 GLENFINNAN win-50 bull’s-eye bet
Friday
WON 17-2 HARB
WON 3-1 MIN HUNA
TODAY: FIRST CHECK THE GOING: The morning weather forecast suggested that half the country will get sunshine and half will get rain. It always seems to be a predicament at Haydock (which is halfway up the country!) so Daqman suggests following market adjustments to the going.
HAVE GOOD GROUNDS TO BET
THE weather is trouble at Haydock. Its first four Flat meetings this year were run on soft-heavy ground.
But its last meeting in early August had eight withdrawals on the morning of racing on good-to-firm ground.
So rain or shine it’s a trap for punters looking for some certainty before Saturday’s 22-strong Sprint Cup.
In fact, it’s very much rain (currently good to soft) before shine (a sunny weekend is forecast) which is reminiscent of the July meeting there, which was also three days. Or it should have been.
Haydock lost 11 late withdrawals on the Thursday and Friday and was forced to abandon during Saturday, though good to soft had turned to good.
Races four, six and seven, including the Old Newton Cup were lost after an inspection of the home bend where horses were slipping up.
The market is often revealing. In spite of – or perhaps because of – the ground fluctuations, I found two meetings where 50% winners were favourite or second favourite at SP and one where four favourites, a joint fav and a 2nd fav won on a card of six races.
My attitude is: make an early play on BETDAQ where you think your selection is a fair offer, then follow the race to the off and check the going.
Bet any NEW favourite, i.e. one for the money at the front or near the front of the market. I regard that as ground preference revealed!
⭕ 4.50 Haydock The opening day is not brilliant. It’s gimmicky and has an amateur-jockeys’ race, a maiden, a nursery and two novices before we get to this class-3 fillies handicap. Plenty of time to check the ground and how the markets are performing.
Stalls 1, 3 and 4 win this; 75% three-year-olds, mostly first or second favourites.
Elladonna has had to accept regrading for beating Roarin’ Success and High Spirited at Salisbury (Warda Jamilla behind) but the race was nearly 9secs slow and she hung under pressure.
Zenjabeela has tried Listed and even Group 2. Ran well to be fourth in a big-field handicap at the Ebor meeting. She would have been closer with a clear run. BETDAQ 8.6 taken.
JEWELRY DAZZLES TRAINER
⭕ 3.50 Salisbury (Dick Poole Fillies Stakes) This race seems to have been around for years and is one of those seasonal markers: oh dear, the Dick Poole is here; it must be autumn!
Don’t be afraid to have a stab at a big price. Though she had won on the July Course, a Richard Hannon called Anna Nerium won at 40-1, and there have been winners in the last three seasons at 16-1 and 28-1. Both had raced in the Pattern already.
That applies here to Betty Clover, who has run in the Queen Mary, the Princess Margaret (2nd to subsequent Group 2 winner Simmering) and the Lowther Stakes.
Tabiti and Troia impressed on debut but the one who gets excited quotes from her trainer is Jewelry, with William Haggas claiming he didn’t really expect her Newbury win; she had done it all on natural ability. Betdaq Betting Exchange 5.0.
MORE LOCHSONG ROMANCE
⭕ 4.25 Salisbury (Lochsong Fillies Handicap) Andrew Balding won this race – named after his father’s European-champion filly Lochsong – in 2018 with Poet’s Vanity and in 2023 with Frankness, Oisin Murphy up both times.
Three-year-olds have won four years running and the Balding-Murphy combo could make it five via Dance And Romance at BETDAQ 4.1
Dance And Romance was favourite, third, in a three-way photo at Goodwood, when Kitai made all, scraping home from Katey Kontent. The draw favoured the winner that day.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.50 Salisbury (win 20, nap)
BET 4.6pts win JEWELRY
4.25 Salisbury (win 12)
BET 3.8pts win DANCE AND ROMANCE
4.50 Haydock (win 20)
BET 2.4pts win ZENJABEELA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
