TWO-HORSE RACE A TOUGH TEST FOR THE PUNTER: The toughest task for the punter is choosing between two horses who seem supreme in the same race. It will be all about taking sides in a little contest on Saturday that was supposedly an easy return for Arc winner Enable. Daqman sets the scene, and finds to his surprise that the horse that’s never won a Group 1 is top rated. Impossible?
DOUBLE WHAMMY LIVENER FOR A DULL WEEKDAY: Daqman tries to liven the wait for the weekend with a back-and-lay double whammy at Haydock and a supernap at Salisbury this afternoon.
HOW COME CRYSTAL IS TOP RATED?
Avoid the Impossible answer. I watched that new quiz game on TV, the one that’s replaced Pointless (but does a good job of living up to the name of its predecessor).
The Impossible answer is one that can’t be true. What they do is drop in a tricky one, something like which American president – George Bush or Donald Trump – always told the truth on Wednesdays. Impossible answer on any day of the week!
Racing fans often face the trap of trying to answer an impossible question, a potentially expensive pursuit, highlighted on Tuesday and again tomorrow. It’s the conundrum of which one to choose in a seeming two-horse race.
Pick the Johnston: Racing at Goodwood, and Mark Johnston has a brace of chances in Tuesday’s two-miler. Nothing new there, then.
But which one would set the pace (one always does); would he stay in front or would he set it up for his stablemate?
In the event, Austrian School led, and was beaten for the third consecutive time as 6-4 favourite. Despite that telling bridesmaid sequence, he was shorter than stablemate Soldier In Action, who cruised by and scored at 11-4, eased down.
The Crystal ball: What’s going to win the September Stakes at Kempton on Saturday between Arc heroine, Enable, and one of those Sir Michael Stoute late developers, Crystal Ocean, up 15lb this year from only four starts. Impossible question?
Crystal Ocean has never won a Group 1. Enable won five in a row. Yet Crystal Ocean is rated 129, Enable 128. How is that possible?
But, though she hasn’t been seen since her Arc, 342 days ago, she gets 8lb from Crystal Ocean. Nearest rival among the rest of the field is Weekender, a stone behind.
BETDAQ 9.8 IS FONDEST GOOD VALUE
3.40 Haydock: Mon Beau Visage caught the eye on the last day, is now rated 8lb below his last winning mark and has Daniel Tudhope taking over from the apprentices of his three last races.
Three-year-olds are on a hat-trick in this, and connections of the filly, Fondest, will be hoping the ground doesn’t dry out too much. Her win was here over the mile but the going was soft and she had an easy lead.
Another three-year-old, Moxy Mares, did the exact same thing (it’s the age of tautology). The gelding – no not a she; just almost a she – won over the Haydock CD on the soft in April but hasn’t shown much since. ‘He’, too, tried to lead at a steady pace but finished only third at Leicester.
Parys Mountain and Pilot Wings have also been known to lead but the form and the market all shouted Mon Beau Visage this morning (5.8 BETDAQ offers), with nothing else fancied, except Sinfonietta, who is worse off at the weights despite being 18 lengths behind ‘Visage’ in June.
If the stats have their way, Fondest looks best of the three-year-olds, and 9.8 offers gave me a second chance in an open race.
BRIDESMAID’S BOUQUET MJJACKED..
4.10 Haydock Salateen is likely to set the pace, and won a similar race here over the CD in July.
Rated half a stone higher yet in receipt of 5lb is So Beloved, the even-money favourite until punted this morning but one of the saddest bridesmaids, with form figures among his last 19 starts of 3342424242222.
An unruly So Beloved can leave his race behind in the stalls but he does like Haydock (two wins here) and cut in the ground.
Ultimate Avenue has shown nothing much this year but is also dropped in class, with Jamie Spencer called in to help. Has won only his maiden, which is always a bad sign.
Inshiraah is down in grade from Listed level but is well held by Mjjack on Newmarket form in the Spring.
If So Beloved wins, I shall be happy to cheer his first success since May 2016 but the grey Mjjack, who faced an enormous task in a handicap on the last day, has waited on the easier ground, while his stable has been doing really well.
I took 4.6 Mjjack and laid So Beloved at 1.8 on a day of subdued action.
MAGELLAN TO STEER WINNING COURSE
4.40 Haydock At least we have this class 2 to bring a bit of quality to the day but only three in the race have scored at this level.
It may be called ‘graded racing’ but climbing the grades needs a willing young horse and an astute trainer. Step forward Magellan and Roger Charlton.
Nicely named as a Sea The Stars colt, Magellan tries to leap two grades here but has had plenty in hand in back-to-back class 4 success.
Huge Future showed some form on the last day for the first time since 2016 but is clearly unreliable for a stable that doesn’t inspire.
Temple Church is also without a win since 2016, while Star Of The East (held by Mukhayyam at Pontefract last month and off his highest mark) is an in-and-out performer who doesn’t put two wins together.
Mukhayyam’s sole success in 15 races since July, 2017, was in an apprentices-only affair, and interesting that David Allan has now handed the reins to Robert Dodsworth (7).
Mukhayyam, Clowance One, Busy Street and Star Of The East all like to lead or be in the van, so a big opportunity for James Doyle on Magellan to navigate around them.
THE NAP: I warned the other day that Henry Candy would emerge from the doldrums and I reckon Past Master (2.62 BETDAQ this morning) can make all the running under Ryan Moore in this small, lack-lustre field.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points)
BET 4pts win MON BEAU VISAGE and 2.25pts win FONDEST (both 3.40 Haydock)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: BET 5.5pts win MJJACK and LAY 10pts SO BELOVED (4.10 Haydock)
BET 5.75pts win MAGELLAN (4.40 Haydock)
SUPERNAP: BET 20pts win PAST MASTER (5.20 Salisbury)
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