TOP RATED FOR VALUE AT CHELTENHAM: In the lead-up to Cheltenham and the Grand National, Daqman is talking about systems. Yesterday’s Golden Rules (more to come) are followed today by an ante-post method that, on ratings, throws up a 25-1 shot on BETDAQ for the Gold Cup which also runs in the Grand National. It’s Irish, of course.
SANDOWN NAP: After a frustrating 222 from Daqman’s three Wednesday picks (including 5/1) he heads to Sandown today for a recommended Betdaq nap.
HEWICK 26.0 GRAND CUP PLAY
Gold or fool’s gold? Once upon a time, a sporting paper ran a competition for ‘the best racing system’. To win it, you had to produce an easy formula for spotting ante-post value.
I remember the successful entry fluked the Grand National winner. I didn’t follow his formula; it seemed flawed (My view of systems anyway is that they are too simplistic and narrow).
The competition winner compared the percentage chances of the top half dozen in the ratings for an advance event to contrive their odds as if it was a six-horse race.
Totally flawed mathematically, I’m sure. But this is how it might look with the ratings for the Gold Cup.
Hewick ‘wins’ at 26.0 in the BETDAQ exchange ante-post list, and he’s the same price for the Grand National.
An €850 buy, he has already won the Sandown Gold Cup, Galway Plate and American Grand National.
Gold Cup: Ratings order in
175 Galopin des Champs 2.86 on BETDAQ 17% should be 5.75
172 Bravemansgame 9.4 on BETDAQ 17% should be 5.75
170 Protektorat 16.5 on BETDAQ 16.75% should be 6.15
167 Hewick 26.0 on BETDAQ 16.50% should be 6.25
167 Noble Yeats 8.6 on BETDAQ 16.50% should be 6.25
163 Stattler 10.0 on BETDAQ 16% should be 6.50
Value order in (ante-post)
1: Hewick 26.0 on BETDAQ
2: Protektorat 16.5 on BETDAQ
HERE’S TO YOU MR ROBINSON
⭕ 1.15 Sandown A little bit of overnight rain in Esher has left the ground good to soft on the hurdles circuit.
The opening handicap hurdle should be fought out by the lightly raced pair Beau Balko (Paul Nicholls) and Freddy Robinson (Brian Ellison).
Preference is for the northern raider who is well in at the weights and has the considerable bonus of Niall Houlihan in the saddle for this conditional riders race.
Freddy Robinson got off the mark when winning by eight lengths at Musselburgh and also shaped well on his return there last time out to finish a close-up fourth in a Listed race running much better than his 50/1 price tag might have suggested.
Beau Balko has proven form on soft but was very disappointing at Taunton last time out and needs to find considerable improvement on that effort.
IRISH RAIDER CAN PLUNDER BIG RACE
⭕ 2.25 Sandown (Jane Seymour, Grade 2) The fact that Gordon Elliott sends over one runner today and Davy Russell comes over to ride could well be taken as a tip in itself but Deeply Superficial also has a solid chance on the form book for this mares’ novices’ hurdle.
She made a winning start under rules at Galway when sent off a warm (but drifting) favourite but was then only fourth in a similar race to today at Naas when behind Inthepocket and two of her stable companions. I say similar in that is was also a Grade 2 but this looks an easier race than the one in Ireland.
Chief rival and likely Betdaq Betting Exchange favourite is You Wear It Well who has been really impressive in lower grade races and proved she was up to mixing it in deeper water when an excellent second to Hermes Allen in the Grade 1 Challow at Newbury.
Her chance is obvious but the stable form 0-10 would be a worry for me if taking short odds.
MOORE FROM INNESTON
⭕ 4.45 Sandown Inneston has always looked as though the step up in trip would be a positive and the Gary Moore trained runner doesn’t look overly harshly treated on his handicap debut.
He stayed on strongly when winning a bumper in his native France and has shaped well in two starts since for Moore at Newbury and Fontwell with two third placed efforts.
Amrons Sage looks the clear danger. Nicky Henderson’s runner was no match for Pembroke at Ludlow but the winner franked the form with a solid effort at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 at the Trials meeting.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.15 Sandown (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win FREDDY ROBINSON
2.25 Sandown (win 10, nap)
BET 5.5pts win DEEPLY SUPERFICIAL
4.45 Sandown (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win INNESTON
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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