DAQMAN 22-10 AHEAD OF PRICEWISE: Daqman’s latest sequence has ended at 25 winners in 14 days, with six naps up in that time. He’s hit 46 naps altogether this year and is 22-10 up on Pricewise for value winners in feature races since the start of the Flat.
SUPERNAP AT SANDOWN TONIGHT: Today Daqman starts by assessing the ratings and maturity of colts in Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas, before tackling the three big races at Sandown tonight, where he has a supernap.
EXPERIENCED COLT REQUIRED..
⭕ 3.40 Curragh, Saturday (Irish 2,000 Guineas) HIDDEN STATS: Pundits will pick the obvious facts and follow the racing-Press stats but I’ve found a couple of hidden omens, one I’ll discuss now and one on the day.
I’ve listed the probable runners in my order of ratings but in parentheses the number of races run in their careers so far:
114 ROYAL SCOTSMAN (7) You could mark up or mark down his rating, according to his proximity to the Newmarket Guineas winner, Chaldean: a head behind on good ground in the Dewhurst; more than two lengths behind on the soft at Newmarket.
But the hidden value in his form is his having raced seven times already, compared with six starts by last year’s winner, Native Trail, seven by Mac Swiney (2021), then – going backwards – four, five, five, seven, seven, four and five and so on in that manner.
In other words, though four starts can win it, five, six or even seven is the norm; plenty of experience required.
111 HI ROYAL (4) Finished in front of Royal Scotsman, second in the Newmarket 2,000, but he led for much of the race and hung badly for the rest of it. Ideally, he needs to settle and aim at 1m 2f plus.
108 GALERON (8) He’s improved in his last three starts; officially upped from a 91 to 108. Short of room, and came through from the rear when fourth at Newmarket.
107 PADDINGTON (4) Landed a hat-trick on soft-heavy but sire and dam’s sire both scored at least three times on good ground.
105 PROUD AND REGAL (6) Experience of Curragh and Saint-Cloud at Group-1 level and bumped out of a good position in the Leopardstown Derby Trial, won by the new talking horse, Sprewell. Back to a mile now.
102 AGE OF KINGS (5), 102 CHARYN (6), 100 CAIRO (6), 100 KNIGHT (3), 100 QUAR SHAMAR (2), 97 BOLD DISCOVERY (4), 80 ALEXANDER JOHN (7 but still a maiden)
STORM WARNING AT SANDOWN
⭕ 6.42 Sandown tonight (National Stakes) Not as prestigious a National Stakes as the one at the Curragh in September, won last year by Al Riffa from Saturday’s Irish Guineas hopeful, Proud And Regal.
But, though no outright favourite has won in the decade, only one winner has been bigger than 5-1 at SP.
That’s because success has always come from the well-supported low draw (results by stall 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 3) such is the nature of the track, even with small fields.
So get on early in the BETDAQ exchange market, if your fancy is from Hackman (1), Blue Storm (2), World Of Darcy (3) and On Point (4). That’s not my order in, it’s their gate numbers, though it could well happen that way!
Hugo Palmer has trained the winner before (Ebro River 2021) with a horse like Hackman; two runs, one win the last day.
Just like Ebro River, Hackman has the one stall. Another prime factor for two-year-olds is that, like Ebro River, Hackman started out on the Rowley Mile course.
In fact, Hackman was third that day to none other than Blue Storm, split by an impressive winner next time out at York who now goes for the Coventry.
The first five home were all winners and Blue Storm had only to be pushed out to score comfortably.
As well as Hackman, Godolphin’s On Point ran at Newmarket. On Point is by the same sire as Blue Storm, namely the prolific sprinter Blue Point, the back-to-back Kings Stand winner.
BETDAQ value: A serious three-way tussle of quality juveniles, with Blue Storm (4.8) the standout on form and Hackman big value at 10.6. Their offers are enhanced by support for Elite Status (3.95), who won in the mud at Doncaster, and for whom being favourite is another red flag.
CROWN GETS SUPERNAP STATUS
⭕ 7.42 Sandown (Brigadier Gerard Stakes) Here’s my Derby winner! I’m talking about last year’s Epsom showdown but I was proud to be on, as Desert Crown went clear and scored, eased down.
It’s a tragedy for his three-year-old career, and the Classic scene, that a minor injury kept him out of the arena again until now. Or is it.
Sir Michael Stoute rarely gambles on a race, chancing his horse. He allows them essential maturity and confidence.
The Brigadier Gerard is a race Sir Michael has won four times in the last six years, and it’s more relevant that second-favourite, Baaeed’s brother, Hukum, has also been absent almost a year, coming back at aged six after a more serious injury.
It didn’t take much persuading for me to back the Stoute stable’s Bay Bridge in this last May, subsequent five-lengths victor (over Derby winner Adayar) in the Champion Stakes.
Desert Crown, who has targeted today’s race and has a pacemaker, seems headed in the same direction, with the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and the Coral-Eclipse next in the agenda, both 10 furlongs.
Stoute has saddled two recent Derby winners to make their return in the Brigadier Gerard: Workforce (rated 128) won and North Light (off 122) was second. Desert Crown is on 123 today and Hukum 122; the rest nearly a stone behind.
AND ANOTHER ONE FOR STOUTE
⭕ 8.12 Sandown (Whitsun Cup) Stoute again. He tries to dominate this mile handicap with two runners; ironically one of them, Assessment, also returned after nearly a year off, so was backable when forging clear at Kempton last month.
It’s two years back since stablemate Aerion Power had winning form but he’s down in class to his successful level and opened his campaign with a decent run on ground he didn’t much like.
Yaanaas is lightly raced and should improve but, from five favourites in the last six days, the Roger Varian stable has got just two of them home and is 2-32. Quantico is 4lb better off for half a length with Yaanaas at Kempton last month, and Helm Rock 4lb better to overturn a neck deficit with him at Ascot. So they are ‘all of a heap’ and beatable.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value 3.05 Assessment, 9.9 Aerion Power
DAQMAN’S BETS
6.42 Sandown (win 20, win 12)
BET 5.25pts win BLUE STORM
BET 1pt win and place HACKMAN
7.42 Sandown (supernap)
BET 20pts win DESERT CROWN
8.12 Sandown (each to win 12)
BET 6pts win ASSESSMENT
BET 1.3pts win AERION POWER
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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