IRISH 1,000 GUINEAS PREVIEW: Daqman follows up his Irish 2,000 Guineas guide with form, ratings and facts about Sunday’s 1,000, in which two long-shots could continue the trend for high-odds Classic scorers.
FOUR FOR SANDOWN TONIGHT: Daqman’s bets are all at Sandown tonight, where they range from a supernap to a 7.7 value pick.
DAQMAN FINDS FILLY OUTSIDERS
⭕ 3.45 Curragh, Sunday (Irish 1,000 Guineas) Anything you can do! On the heels of an Aidan O’Brien hat-trick in this (including Hermosa, last filly to do the double from the Newmarket 1,000), it’s now Dermot Weld going for three in a row.
Weld won this last year for the Aga Khan with the Moyglare winner, Tahiyra, beaten only half a length by Mawj in the Newmarket version, therefore so close to doing a Hermosa.
Weld’s player for the Aga on Sunday is Azada, whose dam is half-sister to King George winner, Azamour.
Azada was too green to play in the big 2yo tests like the Moyglare but she still stood out a mile on style, an attractive fluency. That was evident in her sole start on heavy at Leopardstown in October, when second and third both followed up with wins.
O’Brien still has four left in on Sunday, giving him room to dictate the pace of the race, though he always says each will run on their merits. Let’s have a look at the top ratings:
118 OPERA SINGER (Aidan O’Brien) Winner of the Marcel Boussac criterium at the Arc meeting, drawing clear but beating the filly who would finish only 9th in the French 1,000.
115 FALLEN ANGEL (Karl Burke) The 2023 Moyglare winner, beating the French 1,000 third, Vespertilio, with the (dd ht) 3rd home, Porta Fortuna.
113 VESPERTILIO (Willie McCreery) Runner-up to Epsom Oaks favourite Ylang Ylang at Leopardstown last July. See Fallen Angel.
110 PORTA FORTUNA (Donnacha O’Brien) Always thereabouts in five consecutive Group 1: 3rd in the Moyglare (see Fallen Angel), won the Cheveley Park and runner-up in the Breeders Cup juvenile fillies.
Kept on, a neck down at the line, to Emalka in the Newmarket 1,000. Ramatuelle was 3rd and Ylang Ylang 5th, so Porta Fortuna looks underrated off 110.
105 SKELLETT (Ralph Beckett) Other than Azada, this big filly could continue the victory roll of outsiders in the English (28-1) and French 1,000 Guineas (31-1) this season.
Beaten only a neck (7f October) by Dance Sequence, who herself went down a neck in the Nell Gwyn, with the French 1,000 Guineas runner-up in third.
CHORISTER STABLE IS SINGING
⭕ 7.07 Sandown, today (Henry 11 Stakes) Hat-trick scorer in the British Champions Long-Distance Cup, Trueshan’s bid for a four-timer failed behind Sweet William last year, after that one had run a half-length second in the Ebor.
Trueshan was well beaten in the Sagaro Stakes in early May over a similar CD on similar ground, with Sweet William seven-and-a-half lengths in front of him in receipt of 7lb.
In the Sagaro, Sweet William was beaten little more than a length by Caius Chorister, second and third to Coltrane.
Caius Chorister’s task that day was to prove she could handle his first entry in the Gold Cup next month, and she came from last to second, now rated a pound better than Sweet William (visor first time tonight).
Chesspiece, rated alongside him, has his first two-miler tonight. William Buick rode him runner-up to recent Group-3 winner Middle Earth.
He was gelded after that and could improve on his reappearance run but his stable is still struggling (Crisfords 1-16) and Sandown is not their track (2-41 in five years).
Prydwen has made late improvement as a six-year-old and is on a hat-trick but his back-to-back strikes on the way here were both in handicaps.
When Zoffee won the Chester Cup earlier this month, it was meant to be revenge on his neck conqueror in that race last year, Metier. But Metier swerved a rematch to run in this Henry 11.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.85 Caius Chorister is on the up and can be another strike for the burgeoning David Menuisier yard which won the German Guineas at the weekend.
THERE’S RHYME WITH REASON
⭕ 7.37 Sandown (Brigadier Gerard Stakes) Some really tough characters win this, like Lord North (2020) and Hukum (2023)
Eight-year-old Certain Lad would do better if this were a handicap, although Euchen Glen was the same age when he won it in 2021. Miss Cantik and Elegancia are rated even further behind.
So it seems to be a two-horse race and, indeed, Royal Rhyme and Isle Of Jura are separated by just a pound.
Isle Of Jura has officially improved a stone for a hat-trick in Bahrain, though the form is always hard to assess; it was firm ground and the yard is currently 0-13 in England.
Royal Rhyme is a Listed-level winner but has won twice after a break for a stable in form (Karl Burke 103010321 in the last four days).
An easy surface is in his favour and he is regarded as ‘very professional’ by Clifford Lee, who has moved into the top six in the jockeys’ table with 42 winners this year.
REMAADD THE HAGGAS CHOICE
⭕ 8.12 Sandown (Heron Stakes) William Haggas has withdrawn Terre De Vega which spoils this race for a straight-eight each-way bet but points up the chances of the same stable’s Remaadd: BETDAQ 5.1 taken.
Remaadd’s form brings in two Derby tests. He was third here in the Sandown Classic Trial, half a length behind old-adversary Macduff; they were second and third at Haydock in September, with the winner reappearing in the Dante.
The improver is Ice Max but he has to step forward from handicaps, in which those he beat have failed to uphold the form.
Frankel’s half-brother, Kikkuli, takes an even bigger leap, from his maiden win at Newmarket straight into Listed company. The two maidens he beat into the places at Newmarket are still maidens.
Almaqam tries a similar leap under William Buick but with the Ed Walker yard on only 1-19.
Sons and Lovers, for the in-form Jane Chapple-Hyam, was third in the Craven Stakes to subsequent 2,000 Guineas placed, Haatem.
CLASSIC BET AT THE WEIGHTS
⭕ 8.42 Sandown (Whitsun Cup) Navagio has Ryan Moore booked but needs it soft, whereas cut in the ground is anathema to Lincoln third Crack Shot, who is 1211 over a mile.
Crack Shot was receiving 9lb from the 7f winner here, Classic, when they finished one-two over the straight mile at Newbury last summer, yet Classic was 7.7 in Betdaq Betting Exchange offers this morning.
Similarly, Hiromichi and Regheeb, one-two at Ripon the soft in April, are rehandicapped to dead-heat.
Dual Identity is 121 over 1m 2f and drying ground would be against him. Magic Memories has scored only once; that was on a turning track but it was in class 5.
DAQMAN’S BETS
7.07 Sandown (win 10)
BET 3.5pts win CAIUS CHORISTER
7.37 Sandown (supernap)
BET 20pts win ROYAL RHYME
8.12 Sandown (win 12)
BET 3pts win REMAADD
8.42 Sandown (win 20)
BET 3pts win CLASSIC
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