BACK-TO-BACK NAPS IN TWO WINNING DAYS: Daqman is the author of his own luck. It’s about hard work and insight, good contacts and big BETDAQ value. But it’s always a dream come true to land a 3-1 nap. In fact, Author’s Dream gave him back-to-back naps yesterday, after a 10-lengths strike on Tuesday, and 21 points profit in the two days:
Wednesday: profit on the day 17.60
WON 9-2 MILITIA
WON 3-1 AUTHOR’S DREAM (nap)
Tuesday: profit on the day 3.40
WON 13-8 STAG HORN (nap)
DAQMAN BITES THE BULLET AT BEVERLEY: Today Daqman checks out Beverley Bullet day, analysing two quality fields. He hopes to cover three bets there with an early nap at Sedgefield. He keeps the jumbo stake for the Beverley Bullet itself..
ODDS ON FOR A BETTER WEEKEND
There’s a big weekend ahead. You can say that about most weekends as the concertinaed season remains packed tight with established cards and new races. But, particularly with rain about, there’s been a shoal of outsiders winning in a sea of uncertainty about the form.
Last week eight favourites came up at Chester on the Thursday, and the entire card at York returned around 7-1 or shorter. Friday at Salisbury and York were similar.
So punters could be forgiven for splashing out on the weekend big races. But most trainers are caught out by a change of going, so there are runners who shouldn’t be there, and others ‘chancing it.’ What happened on Saturday? Stormy weather, a washout for punters.
LAST SATURDAY: York winners at 10-1 (twice) and 12-1. The Curragh 28-1 (twice) and 50-1. Uttoxeter 11-1 and 14-1. Chelmsford 10-1, 11-1, 18-1, 28-1 and 33-1 (twice).
LAST SUNDAY: Sandown winners at 14-1 (twice). Naas 12-1, 20-1, 22-1 (twice) and 50-1. Wolverhampton 28-1. Cartmel 22-1 and 66-1.
The prognosis is good at Newmarket on Saturday for a better outcome for ailing weekend punters, if past results are anything to go by.
This is the fairest of fair tracks, with wide open spaces, so generally no draw trap and the form likely to work out.
NEWMARKET, SATURDAY: The 1.30 Newmarket has had five winning favourites in the decade; no SP bigger than 9-1. In the 2.05, none bigger than 11-1.
Best race of the day there, 2.45: eight out of 10 SPs no bigger than 9-1, including four successful favourites.
GOODWOOD, SATURDAY: In spite of the undulating track, and draw consideration, it looks possible to pick your way through the quality races on Saturday and Sunday in a Ladbrokes-sponsored weekend. These are the Saturday specials:
1.50 Ladbrokes Prestige Stakes has had 10 consecutive winners between 6-4 and 5-1 SP.
2.25 Ladbrokes Handicap Five favourites; outsiders at 12-1 (twice) and 16-1. More like the norm for a big-field handicap.
3.00 Ladbrokes March Stakes Just one outsider at 16-1 but, as you’d hope for in a stakes race, nine winners returned evens to 4-1.
3.35 Ladbrokes Celebration Mile One outsider at 20-1 (in 2012) but around evens to 9-2 for the nine other races.
4.45 Ladbrokes Handicap Two out of two favourites in the 4.10 (new race), and it’s the 4.45 which, on past results, is likely to throw up more outsiders than the rest of the card put together: 12-1, 16-1 and 25-1 (twice) in the last eight seasons. So, if you’re ahead, that’s the time to have a little flutter.
GOODWOOD, SUNDAY: Two races to note of those that have history (some races are new), but a tricky getting-out race, where you should do small win bets with place stakes.
1.50 Ladbrokes Handicap Six out of seven winners 7-2 to 7-1, and 3.00 Ladbrokes Handicap Seven out of eight from 2-1 to 11-1.
3.35 Ladbrokes Supreme Stakes Nine out of 10 SPs from 13-8 to 9-1, and the 4.10 had five out of nine winning favourites.
Again the lucky last at 5.20 has been the race for a flutter: winners at 8-1 (twice) 12-1, 20-1 and 25-1 in seven seasons.
HOLLIE TO MAKE HER POINT AGAIN
⭕ 2.30 Beverley Three three-year-olds do battle here, all winners of one of their last two races, with Hollie Doyle keeping the faith on Harrison Point, after their winning partnership at Ayr.
Absolutely no money for his two runs in between (14-1 and 80-1), but evens, 3-1 and 11-4, always ridden by Doyle, when he won. A clear case of ‘who else knew!’ His Lambourn trainer Archie Watson certainly knows the time of day.
Watson landed two winners from three runners on Tuesday. I napped one of them, Stag Horn (Hollie Doyle), who made all at Catterick to score by 10 lengths.
The chances of Shawaamekh winning should also be evident if you keep an eye on the market. He won back to back last summer on soft ground, favourite both times.
Returned to form, third, at Chester earlier this month under today’s jockey, David Nolan, who was on board for last summer’s double.
But you really will have to wait on the market, because there is no obvious encouragement from connections, with trainer Declan Carroll 0-19 and with his last two runners beaten a total of 106 lengths, albeit one of them over hurdles.
Of the two other three-year-olds, Amaysmont has won only his maiden, always a bad sign.
Le Chiffre was a Beverley CD winner in June (13lb higher now) and has won since at Hamilton, but both were in class 5, and he was beaten here at Beverley on the last day, when upped to class 4. Today is class 3. He makes the price for Harrison Point (BETDAQ 4.0) as the market stands, but you have been warned to keep an eye on Shawaamekh.
HE’S JUMBO THE JET IN BLINKERS
⭕ 3.30 Beverley (Bullet) Some tough old boys have won this sprint, Borderlescott when aged 10, and Take Cover at 10, doubling up when aged 11.
So you can’t strike out two of the three CD winners, Alpha Delphini (he’s nine but won this in 2016) and Caspian Prince (now 11), unless you have more than one reason for marking them down.
Black marks can be cancelled out by class, certainly in the case of Alpha Delphini, winner of the Nunthorpe of 2018 and second to Battaash at Haydock 14 months ago, although not seen after until fading badly at York in July.
Caspian Prince is also from a stable out of form (Michael Appleby 2-45), prefers top of the ground and is badly drawn in 10 to do his usual dash for glory straight from the starting blocks.
With Michael Dods also on just two winners in two weeks (2-28), last year’s Great St Wilfrid winner, Dakota Gold, has a second black mark: drawn 8. Stalls 1, 2, 3 and 4 have won this eight times out of 10.
Tarboosh, from the one stall, has scored six times on soft or good to soft and his trainer is in good form, but he was down the field in this race last year.
Keep Busy (stall 2) is only three, but her form on soft-heavy is 22411, and she was just touched off at the York Ebor meeting.
These are not the conditions liked by Fool For You (out of stall 3) or Makanah (4), but I’ve always thought that Major Jumbo (5), Group placed five times and winner of the Coral Sprint at York on soft in 2018, is an ideal candidate for this stiff Beverley five. Blinkered first time.
Verdict: The stalls bias at Beverley has continued this year, with 73% of sprint handicap winners coming out of the low four stalls. Major Jumbo likes to get on with it, and he should be able to take over from stall 5.
Only Art Power could stop Keep Busy at Ascot and she, too, loves plenty of cut in the ground. She won a Listed on heavy at Chantilly as a juvenile; that’s French heavy not English. Keep Busy at 4.3 and Major Jumbo at 6.5 gives me two good BETDAQ chances.
THE ONE FOR THE DAY’S NAP..
⭕ NAP: Dr Richard Newland sends Marine One (12.50) on a solo mission to Sedgefield. The mission of the nap is to cover the stakes on the big races at Beverley.
Dr Newland has a 31% strike rate at Sedgefield, and has booked Brian Hughes to ride. Prolific at Sedgefield where he has ridden 157 winners, Hughes makes his first visit there this season.
Marine One goes well fresh, as he did when scoring at Market Rasen in July in the same conditions he has today. He can carry the penalty.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.50 Sedgefield (nap to win 10)
BET 8pts win MARINE ONE
2.30 Beverley (win 10)
BET 3pts win HARRISON POINT
3.30 Beverley (win 20, win 10)
BET 3.5pts win MAJOR JUMBO
BET 3pts win KEEP BUSY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro.. Or just 10p to win!
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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