EASTER MONDAY GRAND NATIONAL: Daqman today traps the top 10 Irish Grand National runners for Fairyhouse on Easter Monday between the limitations imposed by the stats. Two for Willie Mullins and two for Gavin Cromwell pass the tests.
BULL’S-EYE BETS AT WETHERBY: Daqman reckons he’s found big BETDAQ value in a Wetherby handicap so goes to the oche with bull’s-eye bets today.
IRISH NATIONAL: THE TOP TEN
⭕ 5.00 Fairyhouse, Monday (Irish Grand National) STATS: 9 out of 10 winners carried below 11st 1lb; some 16 of the last 20 had 10st 8lb or less. The last 8 out of 10 were aged 7 to 9; novices do well
RATINGS RECORD (since 2014): 142, 136, 137, 153, 139, 144, 137, 137, 149.
148 MINELLA COCOONER (Willie Mullins) Grade-1 hurdles winner and Albert Bartlett runner-up 2022; missed out most of 2023, bouncing back in January with defeat of Senior Chief (levels) over fences at Navan. Not much chasing form but superbly bred for the job, by Flemensfirth out of an Old Vic mare.
147 CHURCHSTONEWARRIOR (Jonathan Sweeney) Success in the Ten Up chase at Navan a year or so back hiked his rating but he failed to finish in autumn comeback in top-Grade chases.
146 NICK ROCKETT (Willie Mullins) Second in this year’s Ten Up, with Minella Cocooner 13 lengths behind, though favourite, and Favori De Champdou a poor fourth.
145 FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU (Gordon Elliott) Has won hurdle and chase at Grade-2 level but in last two runs he has dropped out as if something amiss.
144 DESERTMORE HOUSE (Martin Brassil) Won three chases out of four last year, the sequence ending with success in the Kerry National. No show since a long break until third put back over hurdles the last day.
141 SENIOR CHIEF (Henry De Bromhead) Never out of the first three, hurdles and fences, third at Punchestown to Cheltenham star Gaelic Warrior, comfortably beaten by Minella Cocooner at Navan, but pushed out to overcome 142-rated Duffle Coat the last day.
140 ANY SECOND NOW (Ted Walsh) Aintree Grand National third in 2021 and second the following year put poor form has dropped him 27lb since pulling up in third attempt at Aintree last April.
140 INTENSE RAFFLES (Thomas Gibney) Has relished soft-heavy ground in back-to-back novice-chase wins at Fairyhouse in the early new year (2-2 since moving from France). Progressive but a difficult task for a six-year-old (just two winners in 38 years).
140 YEAH MAN (Gavin Cromwell) One of few in the race with marathon success; won the Haydock Park Grand National Trial in February (raised 7lb) from the Warwick Classic winner and subsequent Midlands Grand National third, My Silver Lining.
137 HARTUR D’ARC (Gavin Cromwell) Unbeaten (2-2) since moving from Thomas Gibney, the last day taking the Leinster National at Naas – on top of a beginners’ success at Clonmel – despite a doubt about him staying.
GOOD LUCK HAS IDEM TO BEAT
⭕ 3.55 Wetherby today (2m5f handicap hurdle) This is a class-4 hurdle, which is a low, low grade for Good Luck Charm in the last two years, though she hasn’t progressed much in that time (112>116).
She has won and been placed in class 2 recently and was a close fourth in a Grade 3 at Sandown against a one-two of 130/128 rated. Is there strength in the opposition today?
Knowwhentoholdem won at Newbury on the second day of March but the runner-up was giving 17lb and hadn’t won a race since November, 2019.
Magical King won his first hurdle the last day, with cheekpieces fitted, but his rating is static.
First-time in cheekpieces today is Protektorat’s half-brother Montregard, favourite for his win last April and for his disappointing return in December. Both were on good ground. Has been withdrawn when the ground was heavy.
Yes Day likes it soft and has had wind surgery (precautionary tongue-tie added) since his third on heavy in a class 2. Jonjo O’Neil has had five consecutive losing favourites in the last two weeks, his sole success from 18 starters a 25-1 surprise to everybody!
Al Kalila (first handicap today) is unexposed but Idem, also in a promising situation, has actually won races.
Betdaq Betting Exchange Daqman value: 9.9 Good Luck Charm and 15 Idem
JUST ASK FOR BETDAQ VALUE!
⭕ 3.42 Fontwell Venetia Williams has just won 6-12, still standing; one of them, In D’Or, scooted up at Ludlow a week back.
His 12lb rise is a severe punishment, not yet effective and the 7lb penalty in its place puts him 5lb ahead of the game, with owner-rider David Maxwell claiming another 3lb.
Connections really had no choice but to hope his form holds for seven days against a stablemate of the Anthony Honeyball favourite he turned over that day.
That stablemate seeking revenge is the mare, Ask Lileen, heavily backed when books opened last night but 4.7 on BETDAQ this morning as I write, surely value against odds-on In Dor after such early speculation and with an animal of his level rarely able to put two races together..
Ask Lileen has run a couple of decent preps for this handicap debut but still has to live up to her six-lengths Point defeat of the subsequent 141-rated Apple Away.
⭕ 6.00 Southwell There was a move this morning for Kings Fountain, who has narrowed the gap on the favourite, Suspicion (2.0 offers), from early odds on.
Though 6lb worse off, Suspicion should hold Vibrato and Devois Choice on their Kempton running.
But it takes a quality colt to be gambled on at Newmarket and, when that happened for Kings Fountain in the autumn, the ground was surprisingly firm and he didn’t run his expected race. He was put away until this Spring. BETDAQ 2.88.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.42 Fontwell (win 12)
BET 3.25pts win ASK LILEEN
3.55 Wetherby (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5.5pts win GOOD LUCK CHARM
BET 3.5pts win IDEM
6.00 Southwell (win 12, nap)
BET 6.25pts win KINGS FOUNTAIN
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