20 WINS IN A WEEK FOR DAQMAN: White-hot Daqman made it 20 winning bets in the last seven days when he scored twice in BETDAQ-sponsored races at Kempton last night, with Brown Eyed Honey (WON 7-2) and White Nile (WON 6-4)
TIDAL BAY RUNS AT AYR ON SATURDAY: Tidal Bay runs. That’s the news of the Scottish Grand National, in which he’s forced a 57lb long handicap from 11st 12lb down to 7st 11lb, with 47 of the 58 acceptors ‘wrong’ at the weights. Here’s how the stats for the race sort them out:
DAQMAN’S SCOTTISH NATIONAL ABC GUIDE
A Aged 8 to 10 (13 out of 17 since 1997)
B Won or in the frame minimum of 30f (7 from 7)
C Rated 132-143 (7 out of 9)
D Between two and four runs that year (9 out of 10)
E Raced in March or April (9 out of 10)
F Ran well NH Chase, Cheltenham
X Black mark: More than 5lb out of the handicap
Maybe being out of the handicap is not such a black mark. In fact, 11 winners of the Scottish Grand National in 30 years have been ‘wrong’ at the weights, like 47 of the 58 acceptors for Saturday.
Last time this happened, the winner came from 26lb out of the handicap but never was there such a spread from 11st 12lb down to 7st 11lb as this year. Minimum weight: 10st
What has not happened since 1971-2 is a seven-year-old winning it back to back. But there are strong contenders to follow up last year’s success by Godsmejudge, only the second aged seven to score in 22 years.
Saturday’s lucky sevens are Sam Winner, Hadrian’s Approach, Green Flag, Merry King, Edmund Kean, Emperor’s Choice, Beeves, Tutchec and Ifyousayso. Three of them are in the handicap proper.
Here’s how the stats are stacked up against them, with a strong ‘A’ team of horses aged eight-to-10 years old:
ABCDE ALPHA VICTOR
Midlands Grand National runner-up at Uttoxeter to Goulanes on only his fourth start over fences, earlier refusing twice (blamed on ‘feeling leg injury’). Summery Justice was fourth and Fill The Power seventh at Uttoxeter.
ABCDE LACKAMON
Durham National winner off 9lb lower a year or so ago. Seen twice over hurdles recently – third to Lie Forrit on the last day – no doubt as a confidence restorer after falling over fences on this Ayr course.
ABCDE MISTER MARKER
Stable not much in the news lately but has 25% strike rate with chasers – best season for some time in that respect – and back-to-form Mister Marker, an Ayr winner over hurdles and fences, was third in this last year.
ABCDEX SUMMERY JUSTICE
One of three – with Emperor’s Choice, Rigadin De Beauchene – left in by Venetia Williams. Fourth Midlands Grand National. Won only a veterans’ race in last two seasons.
ABEF GOSDMEJUDGE
Last year’s winner on a sound surface – only 6lb higher now – after good third in 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham. Resumed with close-up fifth in the Murphys at Cheltenham in November but pulled up last twice, though the going was good both times.
ACDE FILL THE POWER
Fifth, plugging on, last year – 10lb lower – after filling same spot in Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter. Back to form in February but further back, seventh, in Uttoxeter marathon this time around, with Alpha Victor and Summery Justice doing better.
ACDE POUNGACH
Last win, more than a year ago, came blinkered first time and he’s slipped a few pounds with moderate efforts since, never really fluent in his jumping. But stayed on well over 29f on the last day, and bred to get five miles!
ACDE ROALCO DE FARGES
From the same yard as the gallant Aintree runner-up Balthazar King, second to Teaforthree as a novice and to Tidal Bay in the 2012 Sandown Gold Cup but only fifth Midlands Grand National same year. Back to something like his best at Newbury.
ACDEX BAILE ANRAI
Novice-chase sequence (three from four still standing) put him on a high mark from which he did not recover until he won at Leicester in November, down 18lb in a year or so. Good second, staying on, in Great Yorkshire since.
ACDEX HERDSMAN
Improved 11lb last backend, including giving weight, narrowly beaten by Tutchec. But jumping let him down at Haydock and pulled up NH Chase, Cheltenham.
ACDEX TRUSTAN TIMES
Classy enough to be third in the Long Walk Hurdle, runner-up in the Rendlesham and fourth in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham (neck behind Pineau De Re). But only one chase start in two years.
ACD MIDNIGHT APPEAL
Useful chaser until fell 2012 Kim Muir. Hurdles starts since, including tilt at Haydock Long Distance Hurdle. Back to fair form over fences, jumping round in the Grand Sefton.
ACD McMURROUGH
Back-to-back winner last Spring but has struggled off revised mark since and unlikely improver at age 10.
ACE YES TOM
Form at Ayr, hurdles and fences, is 22214123, but needed drop of 12lb in the ratings to win small-field race at Down Royal. Now back to mark of two years ago.
ACE LIE FORRIT
One-time Ayr specialist but not won beyond 27f (hurdle). Best run was Grade-3 hurdle third to Gevrey Chambertin in November.
AC AL CO
Useful hurdler and novice chsser with just one win (3m chase) since May 2012. Was 10th of 12 finishers United house Gold Cup at Ascot in November.
AC PURE FAITH
Al Co’s stablemate, with summer success over hurdles and fences last year. Just one chase win in 21 races since June 2011.
AC NUTS N BOLTS
Progressive early last year and won over 29f on his return to action after pulling muscles at the third in this race but no show since in Grand National Trial at Haydock behind Rigadin de Beauchene.
ADEX STORM SURIVOR
Narrowly beaten by Al Co at the backend of last year before falling in the Becher Chaser at Aintree. Returned to form when second in the Grimthorpe last month (Monbeg Dude behind) but 11lb out of the handicap here.
AD MENDIP EXPRESS
Novices have won this three times in the last decade (eight wins in 20 years) but this one has had only five races – four chases – in his life. Impressive win at Cheltenham in January (27f), though swerved Cheltenham NH Chase tilt after poor Newbury run on heavy.
A BATTLE GROUP
Brilliant hat-trick jumps and hurdles, including at the Aintree Festival, last Spring but was the cause of the mayhem at the start of last week’s National when he refused to race, not for the first time.
A RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE
Beat Godsmejudge in the 2013 Warwick Classic (3m 5f) but worse off at the weights now, and pulled up in this last year. Won Haydock Grand National Trial first run back (Emperors Choice second, Nuts And Bolts fourth) but that’s cost him a 16lb rise.
BDE TIDAL BAY
Hugely compressed this handicap – only 11 of 88 acceptors were officially on 10st or more – as a former Sandown Gold Cup winner and Hennessy runner-up (2012).
Didn’t get far enough in the Aintree National last week to over-exert himself but has not won on a track like this for six years, and has always been more at home at more rugged venues, Cheltenham, Wetherby and Carlisle.
CDEFX EMPEROR’S CHOICE
Distant seventh in last year’s NH Chase at Cheltenham, sixth and seventh Southern National and Warwick Classic. But back to form on heavy to win West Wales National.
Another good performance in deep ground when 10-lengths runner-up Haydock Grand National Trial. Now 10lb better off with the winner, Rigadin De Beauchene.
CDE GREEN FLAG
Novices have won this three times in the decade but this one looks vulnerable as a seven-year-old who has so far tackled only around 3m. But course form 1221 and fine fourth to the big improver Holywell at Cheltenham.
CDE MERRY KING
On the premises at a young age, second in the United House Gold Cup at Ascot, fifth in both the Hennessy and Welsh National, third in the Peter Marsh. Yet he’s a pound lower than at this stage last year, so still to make the breakthrough.
CDE ROBERTO GOLDBACK
Top-class novice but not won since United House Gold Cup at Ascot, November 2012. Fourth in same Ascot race last year and slipped 20lb down the ratings. Good recent third in Kim Muir at Cheltenham festival.
CD EDMUND KEAN
Very lightly raced seven-year-old, five times scorer on soft-heavy up to 3m. Jumps well, travels well, enjoy a galloping circuit.
DE SAM WINNER
Still only seven, though novices have won this three times. He hasn’t raced beyond 26f but Paul Nicholls designated him for the four-miler at Cheltenham.
Ditcheat didn’t have an RSA candidate so he was the stable’s representative for the novice title instead, and the way he ran it seemed to be a case of: if you can’t win, don’t leave the Scottish National behind at Cheltenham.
D HADRIANS APPROACH
The 2012 RSA third was much shorter than winning stablemate Triolo D’Alene for the Hennessy but unseated rider. Also down the field at Cheltenham and no improvement in his rating over the last 14 months. Still only seven.
DEX IFYOUSAYSO
Up 23lb after back-to-back 3m wins but good second in 3m Brown Chamberlin Trophy at Ascot recently.
TODAY’S RACING: Has Gosden scared them all away ?
John Gosden looks to have an outstanding chance of a double tonight and it’s time to play BETDAQ MULTIPLES as the pair coupled are paying around 2.88, or, 15/8 in old money.
Anglo Irish has just three rivals in the 7.40 and should be able to build on a maiden win at Lingfield last time out when he overcame trouble in running. The market is held together by the presence of the Sir Michael Stoute trained Festival Theatre who built on a promising debut at Salisbury to win a Kempton maiden here last August. The two Newmarket trained rivals look roughly the ‘same horse’ to me, so it’s is puzzling to see the handicapper rate Anglo Irish eight pounds inferior. On my ‘weights and measures’ I’ve therefore got 8lb up the sleeve with the Gosden runner.
It’s another four horse race at 8.40 and this time I am with the John Gosden trained Terhaab who won her maiden here last time out (Speed Hawk who was third, went on to win at Wolverhampton next time out). Back over the same C&D Terhaab should make a winning debut in handicap company.
Earlier in the day Solar Sky catches my eye in the 3.20 on the marathon eight race card at Taunton. Solar Sky, trained by David Elsworth was a Haydock winner for Sir Henry Cecil on the flat and ran the race of his career when a neck second to Namibian in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot in 2011. He was a 20/1 shot on his hurdling debut at Kempton and shaped well for much of the race – eventually dropping back to fifth. That experience, combined with the longer trip today makes him a standout in a very modest contest – and we are getting over 2/1 for our money too.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 8pts win (nap) SOLAR SKY (3.20 Taunton)
BET 4pts DAQ MULTIPLES DOUBLE on ANGLO IRISH (7.40 Kempton) and TERHAAB (8.40 Kempton)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
