SATURDAY’S BIG FLAT RACE ACCORDING TO THE STATS: Daqman reduces Saturday’s Lincoln Handicap field to those of the right age and rating, according to past results revealed in his A-E stats guide which serves to assess the chances of each horse.
DAQMAN STAKES A TREBLE CHANCE AT LUDLOW TODAY: Staying with the Jumps today and three bets which, taken with Daqman’s staking plan, need only one to win to shade a profit but he spends that edge with a small-stakes treble on the three.
LINCOLN HANDICAP ABC GUIDE
⭕ 3.10 Doncaster, Saturday (Lincoln Handicap) Going: GOOD
A: STATS: AGE (10 years since 2010): four (5 wins), five (2) and six (3). Only two aged seven and older since 1965.
B: RATINGS: 98, 104, 95, 90, 102, 100, 100, 100, 99, 100 (so 98-102 seven out of 10). Weight carried: 9st 1lb to 9st 4lb (9-10). This year’s 100 rating carries 9st 5lb.
C: DISTANCE WINNERS: 82% strike rate.
D: TRAINERS (Lincoln Handicap): William Haggas 4, Charlie Appleby 2, Richard Fahey 2. JOCKEYS: James Doyle 2.
E: Trainers in form (Flat win since March 10)
FAVOURITES: Four winners out of 17; ten out of 17 unplaced (place betting on favourites poor value).
ABCDE EASTERN WORLD
Ticks all the boxes but 5lb penalty for February win in Meydan and won only a class-5 maiden in England; 5th to Brunch at York, 9th to Haqeeqy at Doncaster.
ABCE BRENTFORD HOPE
Class-3 hit at Haydock on heavy, after favourite all four starts since winning maiden at Newmarket. Trainer Richard Hughes currently striking at 50% (4-8).
ABCE GROVE FERRY
Penalty for class-2 win at Lingfield in February; placed all three starts in the autumn, favourite when second 7f heavy at Doncaster.
ABCE ORBAAN
Ex-French 1-7 in England, all in class 2; York winner 1m good to soft but unfancied and moderate form since.
ABC DANYAH
Benchmark for this: beaten favourite third to River Nymph (Newbury, 7f soft); beaten favourite, nearly two lengths by Hortzadar (1m soft, Ripon Rowels); favourite beat Alternative Fact (1m Haydock good), 8lb worse off now.
ABC DASHING ROGER
Recent last of seven, Kempton; beat dual 7f winner Ascension nearly five lengths (1m Leicester, heavy, October)
ABC HISTORY WRITER
Last form was in 1m (heavy) Listed in France autumn, 2019. Outclassed three consecutive Group races in England last summer. Home wins only at Sandown.
ABD BRUNCH
Back-to-back wins at York last summer (including 1m class 2, good); short-headed by Johan (Ayr, GS) and now 7lb better off. Trainer only 2-14 in 2021.
ABE HAQEEQY
Gelded after 3-4 last summer, culminating in 7f surprise at 12-1 (Doncaster, 7f, good). To be ridden by 7lb claimer.
ABE RIVER NYMPH
Dual winner Newmarket and Ascot (7f good, class 3) last summer. Flopped (Ascot, 1m, soft) raised to class-2 Balmoral Handicap in the autumn. Stable nine winners this year (25%).
ACDE JOHAN
See Brunch; gelded since. Form after maiden, if deleting Listed and Group: 114011. William Haggas leading Lincoln trainer and on a hat-trick on Saturday after 2-2 last week.
ACE OUZO
Eighth Royal Hunt Cup: York winner (1m, soft) in autumn, third run after being gelded.
ALSO: AB King Ottokar, AC Hortzadar; AE Ascension, Man Of The Night; BCE Born To Be Alive (penalty); BC Kynren.
LADY IN 600-MILE ROUND TRIP
⭕ 1.45 Ludlow Scottish trainer, Keith Dalgleish, makes a 10-hour round-trip of almost 600 miles with one horse today, anxious to see the effect of a wind op on the once-consistent Glorious Lady.
The Lady had glorious form (112221) in 2019 and came back to her best last February, landing a gamble at Musselburgh.
Her poor autumn form drops her 6lb and Billy Garrity takes off another 3lb. At the same time in the autumn, her main opponent today, Apache Creek, was scoring back-to-back wins in a lower grade and a novice event.
A 16lb hike in the weights was followed by a 146-day holiday, two obstacles in the way of an instant return to form. Glorious Lady was too big at 7.0 on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this morning, though you might want to save on the favourite at 3.65.
‘ROBIN’ HAS A STONE IN HAND
⭕ 2.45 Ludlow It was always on the cards that Robinshill (BETDAQ 6.9) would return to Ludlow when the better ground came.
He hated the mud on his return last month but now has the kind of going that helped him to a hat-trick, including a double at Ludlow, in the autumn.
Though raised 7lb, he still looks well handicapped over hurdles off 124, more than a stone below his 139 chase rating.
Ginistrelli was very in and out in 2019 (wind surgery and moved yards after winning on the Flat for Ed Walker). Same last year when he again fell apart after a solitary success.
It is hard to put your money down after more wind surgery and more unpredictable form: last of 10 at 33-1, then won at 33-1.
Takeit Easy is 9lb higher than for his sole success in a lower grade. Ran well, third, at Newbury but the one-two were still maidens over hurdles before the race.
Hirjan is a CD winner who has also had wind surgery for a second time, and I prefer the solid form of Robinshill.
MAY I PRESENTE TODAY’S NAP
⭕ 3.15 Ludlow El Presente, said to be David Bass’s favourite horse, was put away for the Spring after rising 24lb from novice-chases to Listed in four wins from five last year. Goes well fresh, and BETDAQ 2.78 is his value in this mofest field.
After a home win at Wincanton, Capeland has gone badly the last twice in line with his stable’s low, low strike rate (3-51) and poor Cheltenham.
Checkitout beat a maiden at Southwell with bridesmaid form figures of 22222, and it’s 28 months since King Of Realms scored off today’s mark.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Ludlow (win 10)
BET 4.25pts win GLORIOUS LADY
2.45 Ludlow (win 12)
BET 2pts win ROBINSHILL
3.15 Ludlow (win 10, nap)
BET 5.5pts win EL PRESENTE
Daq Multiples: 1pt win treble the three.
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