BONUS NAP ON BETDAQ TO PAY FOR SANDOWN TONIGHT: Daqman tilts at the Sandown draw tonight in three sprint jousts which he hopes to pay for with a value nap at Uttoxeter, where he works a bonus by staking to his own pricing up of the race. He reckons 2.5 big value when the horse is odds on by his reckoning, even money at the very worst. Then he sticks to top jocks Oisin Murphy and Frankie Dettori to negotiate the speed races.
14-1 FINE, BUT THERE’S VALUE AT 2.5
You have to work with what you’re given! Trainers have to; jockeys have to; professional punters have to: so why not you?
That was an early piece of advice from the racing editor when I moaned as a young journalist about my workload for the day of a moderate midweek card.
That’s the truth of it. I tell you now as the first three races at Sandown tonight are 5f sprints with a stalls bias that may or may not give you the winner. That diagonal track tries to play you in a holy game of poker, not letting on.
It helps if you try to envisage how a race might shape up, given the proclivities of the runners. It was the key to my napping Pivoine (WON 14-1) in last year’s John Smith’s. His style is perfect for the race, though he still had to get the breaks.
At Sandown a sprinter has to get a rails draw or have the speed and stamina to get across from a wider stall and see them all off. It requires jockeyship, so I’m angling towards Oisin Murphy and Frankie Dettori on the diagonal tonight.
Listen, I’m starting out (as Aidan O’Brien would say) with a nap at Uttoxeter, hoping it pays for the day. The horse was 2.5 on BETDAQ this morning but the form of the race makes him an odds-on chance.
To be on the safe side, I’ll rate him even money, which would require 10 points to win 10. I’ll stick to that 10 stake and so get me 50% bonus at 2.5. That’s a value earner.
A BETDAQ SPORTSBOOK TEMPTATION
⭕ 2.45 Uttoxeter I’m napping Kings Temptation to repeat his Uttoxeter performance of 10 days ago, when he won six lengths over 3m 2f on good ground.
Bryan Carver’s claim cuts out most of his penalty, and he’s put two races together twice before. Trainer Ben Case is getting 100% out of his runners, according to the Racing Post assessment.
The 2.5 is big value on BETDAQ this morning, with Kings Temptation helped by some massive negatives against his rivals in this small field. Lord In Red has pulled up in three of his last four starts, yet he’s actually crept back up in the weights!
Fr Humphrey can go well fresh but is 12 now and trainer Neil Mulholland hasn’t had a winner for 139 days (current form 0-23).
His team is really starting to look down in the mouth.
His last nine runners have been beaten a total of around 270 lengths, and a measure of stable confidence is revealed in SPs of 22-1, 28-1 (twice), 40-1, 50-1, 100-1 and 200-1 in the last week!
Ian Williams is also struggling on 1-23 and his runner, Almost Gold, is on 1-13, with just one success (over hurdles), always a bad sign. That leaves Thomas Shelby, also with just one win under Rules and a beaten favourite on the last day in February.
MURPHY IS THIS INDIAN’S TONIC..
⭕ 4.20 Sandown Our Oystercatcher is a front-runner, with form figures at Sandown of 2312 but he hasn’t won above class 5 and I think he might set it up for Indian Raj.
Indian Raj (BETDAQ Exchange 4.3) is another CD winner but a grade higher; runs just off the pace and I reckon he could come and grab it. This is his preferred ground and Oisin Murphy is 113 on him.
He didn’t run his race last time he met Our Oystercatcher (he was 3-1 favourite ‘nowhere’) but is now 11lb better off.
Broadhaven Dream will be winning races but not much encouragement today from trainer Ron Harris’s form (0-18), particularly his last six finishers: 9th, 10th, 9th, 9th, 10th, 9th.
⭕ 4.55 Sandown Another 5f sprint but up a grade again, to class 3. This time there are no CD winners.
Konchek, once second in the Group-2 July Stakes, has only ever won his maiden (he’s 1-14), which is always a bad sign. Yet here he is giving weight all round on the strength of a placed effort 10 days ago.
Magic J is another maiden-only winner with bridesmaid form ever since (3322), though first-time cheekpieces might concentrate the mind.
Puds is a bridesmaid, too, outside the kinky tracks of Goodwood and Windsor, and can’t beat Blue De Vega (Sportsbook 9.0) on Chelmsford form; he could step up with the return of the visor. Outage reserves his best for Newcastle.
IT’S ONE IN THE EYE FROM FRANKIE
⭕ 5.25 Sandown (National Stakes) Third sprint in a row, this one of course a Listed two-year-old test, famous for Tiggy Wiggy’s runaway win from the one stall in 2014.
Winners by stall in the last eight seasons have been 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 4, theoretically giving Frankie Dettori a tricky drive on Eye Of Heaven from gate 5, even in this small field.
Two behind him at Newmarket, Tactical (hampered) and Get It, turned around the form at Ascot in the Windsor Castle Stakes but Eye Of Heaven didn’t seem to like the soft ground.
If a Mark Johnston goes to the front, he stays at the front, and I’m prepared tco bet that Frankie gets enough speed out of Heaven that none can Eye ball him.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.45 Uttoxeter (to win 15)
BONUS NAP: 10pts win KINGS TEMPTATION
4.20 Sandown (win 10)
BET 3pts win INDIAN RAJ
4.55 Sandown (win 10)
BET 1.25pts win BLUE DE VEGA
5.25 Sandown (at SP)
BET 10pts win EYE OF HEAVEN
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