33-1 KING DOUBLE ON THE CARDS: Daqman goes through the six-race jumps part of the card at Wincanton today, including a 33-1 Alan King double, and this evening finds a long-odds front-runner to back and lay.
TOMORROW: Start of the two-day meeting at Sandown.
BOY BIDS FOR HAT-TRICK
⭕ 12.45 Wincanton Kilbrew Boy has won this amateur’s chase for the last two years off 112 and 107, yet will today carry 10st 13lb off a rating of only 104.
He’s got his ground again but has usually been seen out several times before the race, whereas this time around he’s had just the one run, when he struggled out the back at Ludlow in October. Has Ben Case got him straightened out for the hat-trick?
Though consistent over hurdles and in bumpers (212213), Galileo Silver has not made a success of chasing (form 040) and trainer Sam Thomas reaches for the blinds.
⭕ 1.15 Wincanton Nicky Henderson enters the den of local lions Paul Nicholls, Colin Tizzard and, prowling not far away, Philip Hobbs.
Parisian Blue is pitched at the right trip on breeding, so he seems to mean business first time with the five-year-old mare, who ran in a couple of bumpers in the Spring, third in one.
Since Nicholls’ runner, the strapping Rainyday Woman, is a Kayf Tara mare, upping her in trip here, after tweaking her wind surgery, looks the right trajectory.
She jumped left-handed at Ludlow but we’ll see what happens this time, going right-handed again; maybe a different bridle or a pricker.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 6.0 Parisian Blue
BETDAQ BUSINESS AT 7.9
⭕ 1.45 Wincanton In Rem, who goes up a stone in future, can try for his hat–trick here under a 7lb penalty.
Since he’s up a grade, and his winning claimer, Chester Williams, stays on board, he carries the same weight as when winning eased down at Exeter 11 days back.
All others in the race are maidens, with BETDAQ 7.9 offer Earth Business ‘the one most likely to,’ stepping up in trip as a Westerner out of a Flemensfirth mare who is sister to a Welsh National winner.
⭕ 2.15 Wincanton (Silver Buck Chase) Colin Tizzard is on the hat-trick trail in this race but his previous winners of this had more form in the book than Butterwick Brook.
‘Butterfingers’ has dropped the baton every time in eight chases, including when runner-up here the last day, when a field of four was strung out in slow time.
Alan King has also won it before and, if The Devils Drop performed as he did when runner-up to the subsequent Grand Sefton winner in the Brown Chamberlin Trophy at Newbury in March, he’d just about win this.
He ran a stinker at Lingfield just 16 days ago and you have to rely on first-time cheekpieces to put him right, and be sure to get a good price.
David Pipe has also won the Silver Buck but it will be a major surprise if D’Jango, winner on soft-heavy in France, can score first time for his new yard on this firmish ground.
Crealion tried to do just that. He came from soft-ground wins in France to finish third twice over here on a sound surface, including at Wincanton the last day.
Captain Tommy won in May after a stable switch but seemed back to his old ways, beaten a total of almost 50 lengths, fifth then sixth, in two races this autumn.
BETDAQ value 8.4 The Devil’s Drop
KING IN 33-1 DOUBLE BID
⭕ 2.45 Wincanton Paul Nicholls has won this handicap hurdle (1m 7f) before with a four-year-old who was favourite, and Tulin opened his novice career by scoring on good ground at Taunton.
Mistakes at the final flights cost him the last twice so cheekpieces are fitted and he meets a formidable opponent in On To Victory (BETDAQ 4.0), who can complete an Alan King double of around 33-1.
The busy Rock of Gibraltar seven-year-old was in fine form over hurdles from last summer right through winter to the Spring when second to Hukum on the Flat and then campaigned for the Ebor.
⭕ 3.15 Wincanton Another staying chase and another chance for Colin Tizzard with the only distance winner, My Lady Grey (BETDAQ 4.8 taken), whose name precedes her: she’s a grey mare.
A winner twice on good ground as a hurdler and kept on well, giving 7lb to a threequarters-of-length winner on today’s course in the middle of November.
Jony Max was second in similar circumstances here, when Team Tizzard had the third horse home, so should know where they stand.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.45 Wincanton (win 10)
BET 4.5pts win KILBREW BOY
1.15 Wincanton (win 20, nap)
BET 4pts win PARISIAN BLUE
1.45 Wincanton (win 10)
BET 1.5pts win EARTH BUSINESS
2.15 Wincanton (win 10)
BET 1.35pts win THE DEVIL’S DROP
2.45 Wincanton (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win ON TO VICTORY
3.15 Wincanton (win 10)
BET 2.6pts win MY LADY GREY
7.00 Chelmsford (17.5 back and lay)
BET 1.2pts win FORZA DEL DESTINO
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
