DAQMAN’S 23.0 TWIST WITH MIST: After his 36.0 outsider was runner-up to the favourite earlier in the week, Daqman pitches in a 23.0 offer alongside his nap today for another race of playing the BETDAQ variations and attempting another 1-2 forecast. The nap is Bennys Mist.
I’m going in again on Bennys Mist at Wincanton today. He’s unbeaten when the ground and the fences are in his favour. Though I think he rates the nap, I can’t resist an outsider in the race with which to play the BETDAQ options.
The handicapper carried forward his punishment of Requin from his hurdles win to his chasing debut, a harsh introductory weight, and he’s never been able to cope with it. But he has now dropped to a mark which can be described as ‘thrown in’.
It all happens in the 2.40 chase at Wincanton, which I shall treat as similar for betting purposes to the opener at Taunton on Tuesday, though Requin (23.0 on BETDAQ as I write) isn’t such a massive outsider as I found that day.
I took BETDAQ offers of 36.0 Comical Red, and backed him to topple the short-priced but odds-against favourite, Waldorf Salad, knowing that, if indeed those two fought out the finish, there were a myriad of bets which could put me in the money.
With a front-running favourite like that you can bet and trade off later. Waldorf Salad was long odds on during the race, which he dominated.
I think Bennys Mist will tighten up from the 3.45 I took on BETDAQ this morning, one reason being that the offer was in a 106% list in the orange. The SP Total is likely to be nearer 120%.
With the outsider, you can expect wilder fluctuations. He could be even bigger but I took the 23.0 Requin, hoping there would be a move in to much shorter odds before or during the race, so that I could trade off.
In the Waldorf Salad race, I won place money from Comical Red (2nd 28-1) and, personally, had a 43-1 reverse forecast with Ladbrokes that he’d win or finish runner-up to the favourite. I lost on a lay, placed too soon.
This column was charged with the same losing lay on the favourite. That’s because I have to declare something in advance, so I usually dare ‘a result’.
I can’t, for every bet, list all the ifs and buts of betting strategy required to seize on changes in the market place as prices alter during the day and during the race.
Today I will declare first positions on this race as win-20 nap stakes on Bennys Mist and win (small stakes) and place (a bigger investment) Requin. Here’s my form reasoning for all of this:
2.40 Wincanton Bennys Mist landed my nap over CD at the last meeting. I said then that his form was disguised by failed attempts at the Grand National fences and at Cheltenham.
If you forgive him those, and judge his form only on heavy ground, his figures since he broke his maiden over hurdles are 11111. In those circumstances, a 6lb rise for his last win seems surmountable.
Though Requin had been racing over hurdles off 104-106, he was raised a stone for his chase debut because it came after he’d won a hurdles handicap at Exeter.
After scoring over fences at Chepstow, he was then asked to race off 132 and 135, some 29lb higher than for his penultimate hurdles success. He was never going to make it.
But he gradually slipped down the ratings until he got back into the placings last Spring. After a run back at Wetherby 19 days ago, he should be fit to show his true ability off a mark of 115 today, with a claimer taking him down to 112.
The other horse in the race worthy of consideration is Ultragold, with local trainer Colin Tizzard having a fine record in handicaps at the Wincanton track, but Ultragold is a bridle horse who finds little or nothing when asked.
For me, he’s a mix in to forecasts and an exchange as a saver but unreliable for a win bet and likely to be too short for a place.
DAQMAN’S ORDER IN: 1 Bennys Mist 2, Requin, 3 Ultragold.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points each)
BET 8pts win (nap) BENNYS MIST, and 1pt win and 3pts place REQUIN (2.40 Wincanton)
BET 10pts win TRESOR DE BONTEE (3.40 Wincanton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 7 x 1pt win trebles VIEUX LION ROUGE (1.40 Wincanton), BENNYS MIST (2.40 Wincanton) and TRESOR DE BONTEE (3.40 Wincanton) with TAGRITA and KESHI PEARL (3.10 Wincanton)
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