5-2 NAP WAS ON DAQMAN’S ‘WISH’ LIST: Daqman continued to gear up for Cheltenham, with a winning nap yesterday, Sudden Wish (WON 5-2).
FIVE WINNERS IN TWO DAYS: He doubled Sudden Wish with Bishop Of Ruscombe (WON 8-13), both on the BETDAQ Kempton Park card, following a 20-1 treble on Tuesday.
TODAY AND TOMORROW: CHELTENHAM A WEEK AHEAD: Today and tomorrow, Daqman continues his day-by-day look at Cheltenham, one week ahead.
SATURDAY: Another big-race head-to-head with Pricewise. Daqman leads 25 returns to 9.
SUNDAY: Daqman’s Betdaq-betting strategy for the festival
MONDAY: The 30 facts and figures that will change your Cheltenham
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: IS THIS HOW TO GET DAY 3 OFF THE GROUND?
1.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (JLT – Golden Miller – Novices’ Chase): The former Jewson is officially three years old but, in its short history, it has already established a very tight ratings parameter for the winner: 146-148.
Will the half-dozen 150-plus-rated horses this year change all that? Historically not; last year those rated 161 (Dynaste), 152 and 151 were second, fifth and sixth, and the year before 160 (8th), 152 (PU) and 151 (3rd) were thrashed by the 148-rated Sir Des Champs.
So, if the stats hold good, the new ‘golden’ boy should be one of Double Ross (he’s on 148), Off The Ground or Taquin Du Seuil (needs soft ground), both on 147.
Taquin De Seuil punters could get 8.4 on BETDAQ last time I checked, when it was 14.0 Double Ross and 22.0 Off The Ground, all three marginally better than with bookmakers.
But Double Ross has three engagements at the meeting and Taquin De Seuil two, whereas Off The Ground has just the one. This one.
2.05 Cheltenham, Thursday (Pertemps Final): Jonjo O’Neill has trained the winner of this three times this century, 25-1 and 50-1 the last twice.
Those two were rated 20lb apart (off 120 and 140); one came to the race with form figures 00P0, the other 2222; one had had 25 hurdles runs, one only six. What chance have we got!
Well, the ratings lore of the race seems to be: carries 10st 8lb to 11st 7lb (six out of eight); 35 horses off 143 or more have all failed in the last 13 years.
Fingal Bay and Champagne West, two of the four market leaders with bookmakers, get black marks, since they are racing off 148 and 145.
Ladbrokes are intriguingly short about two Irish horses, Inish Meain and Clonard Lad. And, at 16-1, they are nine points lower than the consensus 25-1 about a horse called Milan Bound. Trained by? Jonjo O’Neill.
2.40 Cheltenham, Thursday (Ryanair Chase) The last three winners have been rated 165, 168 and 166, with six of the last nine already successful over course and distance..
Dynaste, Last Instalment and Menorah (169), Sizing Europe (167), Arvika Ligeonniere (166), Al Ferof (165) and First Lieutenant (164) are all round about the ratings parameter.
Last Instalment is expected to run in the Gold Cup and Arvika Ligeonniere and Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase, which leaves you with three of the first four in the BETDAQ market, of which Dynaste and Al Ferof are CD winners.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: Al Ferof
3.20 Cheltenham, Thursday (Ladbrokes World Hurdle) The hot-pot rivals Annie Power and Big Buck’s, four in a row until absent in 2013, both have to defy the trends.
Big Buck’s would be only the second 11-year-old winner since 1972, and Annie Power the first to win with fewer than eight previous hurdles starts since Rustle in 1989 (Iris’s Gift had had eight in 2004), and probably the first ever to be so lightly raced and without a run beyond 21 furlongs.
DAQMAN’S HORSES TO FOLLOW: At Fishers Cross
TODAY’S RACING: FLYING FORM AWARDS WINCANTON PRIZE TO YELLOW BALL
4.05 Wincanton Benbens is back quickly after his Ludlow win a week ago, too quickly for a glass horse. His wins and seconds have been spaced out like this since November, 2009: November – June – December – March – December – February.
Thomas Wild was a lucky winner at Exeter last time out when the leader baulked at the paddock entrance, and was well held when he fell behind Flying Award early last season.
Flying Award has won two Nationals for me this year but Yellow Ball was the ‘moral’ when they met at Wincanton in January, giving the winner 5lb on heavy but beaten less than three lengths. I shall lay Benbens at 1.77 this morning and back Yellow Ball at 4.3
5.05 Wincanton: If ever there was a conundrum, it’s this race, which fields three CD winners, Rossa Parks, Webberys Dream and Milans Well.
Milans Well is two from two at Wincanton, both between January and April last year, but in the first of them two of his three rivals fell or unseated at two of the last three fences, and there was more mayhem in the second one.
The two leaders came down independently four out, hampering three of Milans Well’s four other rivals and leaving him clear.
The Limpley Stoke, Bath, stable of Neil Mulholland (Rossa Parks) is in winning form (3-9) and Victor Dartnall (Tolkeins Tango) is doing well right now, if only he had a better record at Wincanton (won nothing for nearly two years with 30 starters).
But their form on soft-heavy ground is Rossa Parks P0002 and Tolkeins Tango 00400, so Milans Well has a chance yet.
Mon Chevalier has been first and second in the 3 o’clock race in this card and it’s a bit late in the day – at age 11 – to try him over 21 furlongs.
So Milans Well’s problems may be Webberys Dream, carrying 24lb less than a year ago, and ex-hunter-chaser Mic Aubin, a glass horse but, if right today, more than a stone lower than for his early Rules runs and a winner of his only heavy-ground chase.
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY 10pts BENBENS and BET 6pts win (nap) YELLOW BALL (4.05 Wincanton)
BET 7.5pts win ALLIED ANSWER and 4.5pts win (stakes saver) BLAKE DEAN (4.15 Carlisle)
BET 5.5pts win MILANS WELL (5.05 Wincanton)
BET 3pts win MIDNIGHT FEAST (5.55 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 6 x 1pt win doubles Yellow Ball (4.05 Wincanton), Milans Well (5.05 Wincanton), Midnight Feast (5.55 Kempton) and Sporting Gold (7.55 Kempton)
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