22.0 AND 17.0 CHELTENHAM ANTE-POST: Daqman dips his toe in the mighty ocean of Cheltenham, hoping to make waves with 22.0 and 17.0 ante-post bets in the BETDAQ orange as part of his See How They Won countdown to next week’s festival.
5.8 THE VALUE NAP AT WINCANTON: He thinks there’s more big value at Wincanton today with a 5.8 bet which loves a clockwise turning track and has only poor opponents in the market place.
WHISPER A 22.0 FESTIVAL OFFER
1.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (JLT Novices’ Chase)
Horses aged six and seven only have won this in the six years of its existence, three of them trained by Willie Mullins.
Every winner had a rating between 146 and 154, which has you checking out these ninepins:
Yorkhill 154, Whisper 153, Clan des Obeaux, Politologue, Top Notch 152, Waiting Patiently 151, Charbel 146, Rock The Kasbah 146, Shantou Village 146.
Daqman/Betdaq With Yorkhill from the Daqman Cheltenham Cavalry the hot favourite, there are some good value offers in Whisper at 22.0. He’s as low as 7-1 in several places with bookmakers
2.10 Cheltenham, Thursday (Pertemps Final)
Winners in the Final have scored in a qualifier but, more often, they are in the frame or close up without winning.
The last eight were third in the Punchestown qualifier, fourth in the Kempton qualifier, won the Exeter qualifier, second at Warwick, won at Haydock, fourth at Haydock, eighth Cheltenham, and placed Newbury.
2.50 Cheltenham, Thursday (Ryanair Chase)
Five of the six winners up to 2015 were rated 166-169, including Cue Card, but Vautour was a league apart a year ago, scoring off 176.
Next Thursday’s ratings reveal Un De Sceaux (169), Fox Norton (167), Empire Of Dirt (162), Sub Lieutenant (162) and Uxizandre (162) fronting the BETDAQ market.
3.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (Stayers Hurdle)
Not since the era of Big Buck’s (2009-12) had a World Hurdle winner – as was – thrilled like Thistlecrack last season.
His absence leaves a gap in the Gold Cup as well as in this newly-titled Stayers Hurdle, in which Unowhatimeanharry is very short.
But only one winner aged nine or over has scored since 1986, unless as the end of a sequence of success (Inglis Drever, Big Buck’s).
Daqman/Betdaq With Limini not supplemented as too inexperienced for the Champion Hurdle, Vroum Vroum Mag could run there on Tuesday – now 10-1 offered on BETDAQ – or she could take in this Stayer’s Hurdle, for which she is 17.0 and gets a 7lb mares’ allowance.
I’ll take a bit of that, well aware that both Vroum Vroum and Limini could take each other on in the Mares’ Hurdle but not if they were in my ownership.
4.10 Cheltenham, Thursday (Plate)
The last eight winners have carried 10st 11lb or less and, with one exception, have been huge SPs in the decade: 12-1 (twice), 14-1, 16-1, 18-1, 25-1, 33-1 (twice) and 50-1.
Venetia Williams, with three starters, and David Pipe, with two, are chasing more glory after winning it three times each since 2007.
The four previous winners were all rated between 136-140, but last year Venetia was just held when runner-up to a future star stayer in the then 142-rated Empire Of Dirt, who scored off 10st 11lb..
This time it’s even stronger. If Venetia keeps Tenor Nivernais in as top weight, the horses on 10st 11lb will be rated 147.
4.50 Cheltenham, Thursday (Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle)
This race launched Limini in its first running a year ago, and the same Willie Mullins stable is hot this year with Let’s Dance and Airlie Beach heading the BETDAQ market.
That was Limini’s third hurdle in her life, whereas those two have raced over the sticks six and eight times respectively.
It will be worth betting that something improves past them from among the outsiders, particularly when a place bet on such a mare of potential could be bigger than the win odds at the front of the market.
5.30 Cheltenham, Thursday (Kim Muir Challenge Cup)
This is a race for amateurs, dominated by stars in their field (Jamie Codd has scored four times) but it takes a top stable to win it (Elliott, Twiston-Davies, Pipe, O’Neill) and only one horse of double-figure age has been successful in 12 seasons.
SNOWBALL A BIG VALUE NAP
2.55 Wincanton today Top Wood and Dawson City shouldn’t even be here. This is a 0-125 but they’ve been allowed in off 127 and 126, a new way of filling up handicaps.
Is it also a new way of easy money for the professional punter (was there ever such a thing)? That’s why they are joint favourites as I write.
Dawson City is a bridesmaid with form figures 2232222023 allowing no respite from the handicapper but still eligible for novice chases!
Top Wood, on the other hand, is down 17lb since the summer and won the Forbra Gold Cup off a higher mark a year or so ago.
These are all unreliable animals but, aged only six and seven, Colin Tizzard’s Sartorial Elegance and Bears Rails can yet redeem themselves.
Bears Rails is back to his best trip and what I shall thank Top Wood and Dawson City for is giving me an eight-runner race so that I can back Bears Rails win and three places.
4.40 Wincanton Snowball is a different horse going right-handed: won three, also placed four, out of 11 starts. He’s very anti ante-clockwise, failing to place in 15 such races.
Back to form last time, loves the mud, and still 9lb lower than his last successful heavy-ground experience. Tasty 5.8 on BETDAQ.
In fact, rates a big-value nap alongside the next four in the betting: Tikkapick doesn’t know how to win (maiden after 17 starts) ditto You Too Pet after seven starts.
Moorlands Mist hasn’t scored for three years; and Knight Ofthe Realm has won just the one (current figures include a hat-trick of parking tickets: PPP2F).
6.45 Newcastle Striking at 38% with a handful of runners so far in UK this season, but 63% (5-8) at Newcastle overall, Saaed Bin Suroor (just had two Group winners at Meydan) sends up Dubai One.
A winner here in November, he shot up the ranks from class 4 to class 2 success at Wolver, travelling really well, and was immediately targeted at the big Good Friday AW championships.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.3pts win and place BEARS RAILS (2.55 Wincanton)
BET 7pts win (nap) SNOWBALL (4.40 Wincanton)
BET 6pts win DUBAI ONE (6.45 Newcastle)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and a 1pt win treble the three above.
ANTE-POST BETS: 5pts win WHISPER (JLT Chase); 3pts win VROUM VROUM MAG (Stayers Hurdle); both to win 50 at Cheltenham next Thursday.
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