4-1 NAP AT WINDSOR TONIGHT: Daqman finds two progressive three-year-olds today, one at Leopardstown and one worth the nap at Windsor tonight, around the 4-1 mark.
FORTUNE COOKIES YORK PLANS: First Daqman sifts his Fortune Cookies to arrive at six for York next week
FORTUNE COOKIES’ YORK SIX
⚠️ HEADS UP: 20 winners so far: WON 11-8 Emily Dickinson, WON 5-6 Adayar, WON 3-5 Blue Rose Cen, WON 7-2 Chaldean, WON evens Little Big Bear, WON 2-5 Tahiyra, WON 11-4 Soul Sister, WON 9-2 Auguste Rodin, WON 16-5 Blue Rose Cen, WON 11-5 Paddington, WON 8-13 Tahiyra, WON 4-11 Auguste Rodin, WON 8-11 Paddington, WON 5-1 Perotto, WON 11-10 Nostrum, WON 10-11 Savethelastdance, WON 1-1 Elite Status (first 2yo runner), WON 10-11 Kinross, WON 4-9 Paddington, WON 1-8 Ace Impact.
⚠️ HEADS UP: The York squad for next week’s Ebor Meeting currently gives Fortune Cookies six chances to get four winners:
109 AGE OF KINGS (Aidan O’Brien) City of York Stakes, Saturday week.
110 DESERT HERO (William Haggas) Great Voltigeur Stakes, York, next Wednesday.
119 KINROSS (Ralph Beckett) City of York Stakes, next Thursday.
125 PADDINGTON (Aidan O’Brien) Juddmonte International, York, next Wednesday.
114 SAVETHELASTDANCE (Aidan O’Brien) Yorkshire Oaks, next Thursday
115 SOUL SISTER (John and Thady Gosden) Yorkshire Oaks, next Thursday
STOUTE’S REALITY STILL CAPABLE
⭕ 4.10 Salisbury (Sovereign Stakes): Sir Michael Stoute brought back his 2021 winner of this race, Regal Reality, to take the Diomed Stakes at Epsom in June.
Both races are Group 3, both were on firm ground and, before we write him off as an eight-year-old looking to complete the tough task of back-to-back wins, he landed a third Group 3 a quarter-mile further (good to soft) a year ago.
And Sir Michael, who has given him a holiday since Epsom, knows all about the favourite, Embesto, because he beat him easily, three lengths in a grade lower race at Newmarket in July with Nostrum.
BETDAQ value 5.7 Regal Reality
SHAYZANN VALUE TO WIN FRESH
⭕ 6.05 Leopardstown (Desmond Stakes): First, looking at this from the stats angle: not the strongest running of this race, with no chance of cracking the average recent rating of the winner (110). Goldana (105) would have won it in a moderate year.
But colts are 9-1 over fillies and mares, which has Alfred Munnings (first-time cheekpieces) and Shayzann as standouts.
From a form viewpoint, Alfred Munnings, Goldana, Pretreveille and Thornbrook are the only ones to have won or been placed in a Group race, Pretreville the only winner of one.
You can shuffle the pieces and come up with several conclusions; use a Venn diagram and find Alfred Munnings and Goldana overlapping several areas we’ve looked at.
As for me, I am irrationally hooked on the Aga Khan’s likable Shamardal colt, Shayzann, who comes here fresh at 13.0 win and place in the Betdaq Betting Exchange .
MERCHANT IS ON HIS METAL HERE
⭕ 7.00 Windsor: Maywake, Mobashr and Chartwell House do not have assured stamina for this, with Mobashr apparently deteriorating and switching to 7f since the better form of his youth.
Metal Merchant has run well in better races than this, and Stormbuster has been dropping down the handicap.
BETDAQ value 5.5 Metal Merchant
TIFFANY NAP OFF FEATHER WEIGHT
⭕ 8.00 Windsor Tiffany has been going through the ranks in the manner of a Sir Mark Prescott animal with a future, and is getting a stone-and-a-half from Cumulonimbus, who is now five wins from eight.
Reach also has a sequence going but is being asked to win 11lb higher than in her last open race.
Much depends on whether cheekpieces help Teumessias Fox, a winner in this grade in the Spring.
He tried Group-3 level which was too much but, dropping back to class-2 company here, two furlongs shorter and with the new aid, he might be able to defy his high mark.
But, again, that light weight for progressive CD winner Tiffany suggests that she can foil the Fox. BETDAQ value 5.0 Tiffany
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.10 Salisbury (win 14)
BET 3pts win REGAL REALITY
6.05 Leopardstown (win 30, win 10)
BET 2.5pts win and place SHAYZANN
BET 3pts win ALFRED MUNNINGS
7.00 Windsor (win 12)
BET 2.5pts win METAL MERCHANT
8.00 Windsor (win 20, nap)
BET 5pts win TIFFANY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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