BETDAQ VALUE: DOUBLE YOUR MONEY: Daqman, who jumped in at 25.0 the ante-post Arc favourite on BETDAQ, leaps on another bargain buy today, a 30.0 offer in Saturday’s Cesarewitch, despite fixed odds of only 14-1 with Ladbrokes. Daqman ups his win target to 50 points for the bet.
BETDAQ VALUE: 208 POINTS PROFIT: Today’s bets on the everyday races are to 5pts win, as Daqman modifies his staking to the time of year, after a run of 208 points profit in 13 days. Look out for more news on the Daqman Plan tomorrow.
BETDAQ VALUE: PUNTER-FRIENDLY MARKETS: Another big-race weekend is almost upon us, with the Cesarewitch the second part of the Autumn Double. For the opening leg, the Cambridgeshire, BETDAQ offers totted up to 103% as Daqman took his pick. The bookies’ Total SP was 142%.
BETDAQ VALUE: DAQMAN, THE BIG-RACE KING: Daqman is going for a big-race four-timer in the Cesarewitch, following the Ayr Gold Cup (Highland Colori (WON 20-1), the Cambridgeshire with Educate (WON 8-1) and the Arc heroine, Treve (WON 4.8-1).
CESAREWITCH BARGAIN: BUY 30.0 BROXBOURNE ON BETDAQ
There’s double your money on BETDAQ. Again! I shot my mouth off several times – ‘Broxbourne will win the Cesarewitch’ – in my horses-to-follow lists, so feel obliged to have the mare in my wallet for Saturday’s race, even if she’s not my main choice on the day.
The price-wise punter who scours the bookies’ lists and comes up beaming with the best price (in this case 20-1 Broxbourne) is always at two disadvantages, often at three.
Firstly, he will need to take the odds from one specific bookmaker (does our hungry punter have an account?). Secondly, it’s amazing how quickly that bookmaker falls into line with the others. In fact, the price may already have gone by the time our man calls them for a bet. Surprise, surprise.
But, third of all, he is ignoring the easy option, far less time consuming: bet with BETDAQ and get better odds.. in this case a huge 30.0 Broxbourne, despite the announcement that William Buick will ride.
The 30.0 flies in the face of 14-1 with some leading bookies, including the extremely-price-wise Ladbrokes, who are more often than not a barometer for the market. You are on more than double your money Broxbourne with a bet in the BETDAQ orange.
Broxbourne had a tremendous run of staying races – six wins out of nine – including the Brown Jack Stakes and the Goodwood Stakes, until she fell down a rabbit-hole the last twice.
But she’s a beautiful bunny at 30.0, now only 4lb higher than for her win at York in August, though – such was her amazing run – 40lb up on the mark she started the year with on the AW.
Draw: Another surprise. We need a low draw on the turning Cesarewitch course, despite the long trip. The results by stall in the last eight seasons (numbers counting outwards from the far rail) have been 7, 3, 11, 22, 7, 3, 36, 1. So six out of eight from the lowest 11 stalls.
Right-hand preference: Yes, like the Arc, and Kempton yesterday, we’re in that right-hand down, turn and turn again situation. On Saturday, I will be looking at horses who prefer righthanded tracks, and I will be looking at the draw.
Meanwhile, here are those that fit other vital stats:
Class: Like almost every big handicap, prizemoney is up, the handicap is tight and quality horses are moving in for the kill. In the last five years, four winners had run in Group or Graded (NH) races.
On Saturday that points to Chiberta King, Domination, Earth Amber, Highland Castle, Smoky Hill, Big Easy, Mamlook, Cousin Khee, Nanton, Eagle Rock, Recession Proof, Los Nadis, Flashman and Cloudy Spirit.
Distance: Nine winners of the Cesarewitch in the last decade had won over 2m, seven of them further than 2m.
Those on Saturday’s card with success on the CV beyond 2m are: Broxbourne, Chiberta King, Cloud Spirit, Domination, Lieutenant Miller, Los Nadis, Mamlook, Oriental Fox.
Trainer: 50% of winners in the decade have been sent out from NH (jumps) stables or yards operating under both rules.
If you think that trend will continue, look closely at Earth Amber, Platinum, Highland Castle, Lieutenant Miller, Moidore, Big Easy, Mamlook, Nanton, Recession Proof, Los Nadis.
TODAY’S RACING: REASON FOR ‘RIME’ TO SCORE AT AYR
Behind every good man is an agent. Some of you expected me to say ‘woman’ and, in the case of Oisin Murphy’s trip to Ayr today, you’d be half right, since he’s there for just one ride, on Linda Perratt’s grey, Silver Rime.
But how smart his booking agent, when the season’s star-find rider has made just four trips to Ayr, and all four horses have won. He’s Mr 100%.
Silver Rime, a course-and-distance winner twice, including for Oisin 19 days ago, is one of only two horses in the race to have scored at this English class-3 level.
The other one, David O’Meara’s Ingleby Angel, is also claimed off. In fact, like Oisin Murphy allowed 5lb, David Bergin is 2-2 on the Dark Angel gelding.
Ingleby Angel has also won at Ayr, and doesn’t mind the soft ground. He’s on a four-timer here but only 8lb higher than for the first of his wins, and has clearly improved that much and more.
Star Links, Toufan Express, Tectonic and Another For Joe should be thereabouts but they are difficult to win with and need a going day.
All bar Another For Joe are racing off a higher mark than they’ve ever won off in the last two years, and Another For Joe has won only at Hamilton.
On the Ladbrokes-sponsored card at Worcester, I’m napping Nicky Henderson’s Makari (5.30). Makari has won before after a long lay-off.
Henderson has a 50% win-and-place strike-rate from eight runners – three winners – in the last fortnight and has booked the top two jockeys, Ryan Moore and Richard Hughes, for his Cesarewitch tilt. Moore rides Lieutenant Miller (nominated by me in my horses-to-follow list as a place ‘must’)
Hughes is on Earth Amber, who already fits more than one of my stats for the race. That’s where I came in. Good hunting!
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes 5pt win on each at SP, except ante-post)
BET 5pts win TRANSFER and POTTERS DREAM (4.00 Worcester)
BET 5pts win on each INGLEBY ANGEL and SILVER RIME (4.40 Ayr)
BET 5pts win (nap) MAKARI (5.30 Worcester)
BET 5pts win MUCH PROMISE (6.10 Kempton)
ANTE-POST (WIN 50): BET 1.7pts win BROXBOURNE (Cesarewitch, Newmarket, Saturday)
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