16-1 LADBROKES HURDLE BET: It’s the first day of the Ayr Gold Cup meeting today and Listowel continues with the high- class Ladbrokes Hurdle. Daqman has bets at both, including a 16-1 shot in the big race in Ireland.
BANKER STAKES AT YARMOUTH: Daqman’s nap is a banker at Yarmouth, where he also goes win and place against an odds-on favourite. He was pipped in the Kerry National yesterday (Pass The Hat 2nd 12-1), so the scores remain Daqman 101, Pricewise 37.
HORSE THAT WASN’T RUNNING WINS
YES How often have you had a place bet on a horse that was fourth only to find that a late non-runner has reduced the field so that fourth is no longer a pay-out; only the first three count.
How often have we seen races decimated – perhaps by a change of going – after the limit on the number of runners had cut out several horses which might have raced, had they been allowed to replace the defectors.
So, yes: reserves in races are a good thing. It happens in Ireland. And it happened in yesterday’s Kerry National.
NO How often in an Irish handicap have you spent hours on the form and the result comes through that your selection was beaten by a reserve.
How often have you fancied one of the reserves but didn’t back it – after all, it was ‘only’ a reserve – then you come home from work to find it has won.
So, no: we don’t want reserves in races; they’re a bad thing because the real runners are known only to the few nearer race time. It happens in Ireland. And it happened in yesterday’s Kerry National.
VERDICT I’m talking through my pocket after a reserve beat my bet, Pass The Hat (2nd 12-1), at Listowel yesterday. But what else can a punter do but complain when his wallet is affected, even though he knows he won’t be heard. The winner was the third consecutive reserve to take the race.
I have deleted all the question marks on all the questions in the above. Because, for me, there’s no question about it.
GO WITH HOURIGAN IN THE HURDLE
Here’s another Irish mystery. What was the ground really like at Listowel yesterday and what will the going be this afternoon? Joanna Morgan reckoned ‘excessive watering’ was forcing it from good to firm to the easy side of good.
But yesterday ‘s results suggested it was firmer than declared: three consecutive races where there was a proper pace on were run between three and six seconds fast.
4.35 Listowel (Ladbrokes Hurdle) Without betting there would be no racing, but punters are the last people in mind when the authorities bring in reserves and watering.
However, there is one betting ‘rule’ which keeps us all going. It is this: we live to fight another day. And today, it’s the Grade-3 Ladbrokes Hurdle.
Trainer Michael Hourigan (form for this 111404) has not been out of the first four in five of six tries at the race, so each-way, or win and place, punters will want to be on Run With The Wind to reach the first four, and they won’t want to see a drop-out from the field of 16 (no reserves).
The quality of the race keeps on improving, with five of the last six winners rated 123 to 128. Like the Kerry National, young horses win it (no older than eight in this hurdle) but, like the Kerry National yesterday, there is an exception to the rule every 10 years or so.
Check out the ratings and you have just four to choose from in the Ladbrokes, one of them trained Michael Hourigan, who had a winner here yesterday.
Coincidence? No, stats don’t just tell us where to look for the winner, they tell us where a smart trainer has cleverly placed his horses to win a particular race.
The three Hourigan winners have been perfectly placed by the man from Limerick, five or seven years old, very little weight on their backs, and with a recent run that summer, Flat or jumps.
Run With The Wind has every credential and more (he won at this meeting last year and is three times a course winner), except that he fell in a chase at Listowel on Sunday.
Hourigan has another runner today, False Economy, fourth in the same Sunday race, but he much prefers a right-handed track and has no chance with The Game Changer on Cork form of last month.
The Game Changer was impressive at Killarney earlier but the favourite, Macnicholson, never got going that day and, as a Geraghty man, I give him another chance here. I took 6.6 Macnicholson and 16.0 Run With The Wind.
‘ROC’ SOLID ON FIRST DAY AT AYR
4.40 Ayr (Kilkerran Cup) Take sides with improving three-year-olds in this: they have had two winners, a second and a third from nine runners in the last six years.
Their three representatives here are among the first four favourites on BETDAQ this morning, and I’ll give a ‘yes’ vote to the Scottish runners, Mistiroc and Wee Frankie, both entitled to improve after only three runs each.
Wee Frankie is particularly interesting, as one by a firm-ground sire but who has spent his time on soft ground so far, doing well. He could show marked improvement for this switch to a sound surface.
Ayr’s opening day has plenty of support – 99 runners – but it’s tricky stuff, with big-field, low-class animals.
We are interested in the first sprint of the meeting (2.40), not for betting purposes but as a possible check on any bias in the draw for the Ayr gold, silver and bronze cups that are coming up.
YARMOUTH There’s just six in it as Ryan Moore and Richard Hughes continue their duel for the title, with some intriguing situations for Hughes.
He misses out on a simple start to the day with odds-on Aledaid (2.20), a Team Hannon Acclamation two-year-old but ridden by Frankie Dettori for an Arab retainer.
But Hughsie might turn over a second consecutive Yarmouth odds-on favourite, riding the Kodiac colt, Jakodamia, a big price at 7.0 this morning when the BETDAQ place was better than the win odds about Bartholomew Fair.
This is the last meeting at Yarmouth until next summer and it could reveal a Cesarewitch winner in Dare To Achieve (4.50). ‘We’ll see after this,’ says trainer William Haggas.
But surely Willie won’t want to dare a rise in weight for this four-year-old who is already above the weight normally carried – four of the last five winners – in the big Newmarket handicap.
Semeen has a near-50% strike rate in handicaps and, whatever happens to Andrea Atzeni on the same stable’s Bartholomew Fair, I reckon the step up in trip will suit Semeen (4.50) in this, and 5.4 looked good value.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) ALEDAID (2.20 Yarmouth)
BET 3.3pts win and place JAKODIMA (2.50 Yarmouth)
BET 3.5pts win MACNICHOLSON, and 1.3pts win and place RUN WITH THE WIND (4.35 Listowel)
BET 4.5pts win MISTIROC and 3.5pts win WEE FRANKIE (4.40 Ayr)
BET 5pts win SEMEEN (4.50 Yarmouth)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£50 FREE BET
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
