12.5 AND 10.0 OFFERS ARE VALUE ON BETDAQ TODAY: Daqman analyses the cards on the first day at Ayr (going heavy) and at Yarmouth (good to firm, watered). Ayr opens with a cloud over it, literally and, right into trading this morning, punters only able to guess what might run in the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday. Daqman’s bets include 12.5 and 10.0 offers. Today’s headlines:
AYR GOLD CUP AS CLEAR AS MUD
BETDAQ SERVES UP GRAND SLAM
THE NAP LOOKS SMOOTH AS SILK
MORANDO CAN SHOW HIS CLASS
LEATHER THE LAYERS WITH TAN
AYR GOLD CUP AS CLEAR AS MUD
It’s heavy going at Ayr. And I don’t just mean the mud. Punters who were reading about plunge horses for the Ayr Gold Cup over their cornflakes this morning still saw 429 ’runners’ left in for the gold, silver and bronze cups, waiting for the three-way split for tomorrow and Saturday.
I did a semblance of an ABC guide yesterday, expecting the usual deletions and hoping that the Gold Cup winner and the Silver consolation star were floating on top, like the two weekend St Leger winners.
But, while declarations for all other races for Ayr’s three days, starting today, have been made in stages in the usual way, only the bookies seem to know the score in the big race.
The plunge horses are led by Son Of Rest, runner-up for Fozzy Stack to Havana Grey in the Group-1 Flying Five at the weekend, and in from 40-1 to 6-1 and 7-1 favourite in places. He will have to carry 10lb more in future.
Then the Racing Post kindly informed us this morning that mud-loving Muntadab was ‘proving popular with punters’ and had been slashed to 16-1 to 25-1.
Trainer Roger Fell: “I don’t know who’s been backing Muntadab. If it were seven furlongs instead of six I would probably be backing him myself!’
The headline was also negative: ‘Roger Fell not putting punters off Muntadab as Ayr Gold Cup gamble gathers pace.’
Here’s another one, which is more to the point: ‘Weatherbys not putting punters off any of 429 entries for Ayr gold, silver and bronze’, with the declarations stage so late that the bookies grapevine has had to declare their version of the runners or there would be no markets for a major Saturday event.
BETDAQ SERVES UP GRAND SLAM
2.00 Ayr Horses in the low six stalls have won every time in the decade: carrying no more than 9st 2lb and aged no older than five.
The stats ideal is probably the morning 10.0 BETDAQ offer Golden Slam, whose form with ‘soft’ in the going return is 2-2.
Quote Andrea Atzeni: ’Soft ground is the key to him, and he’s set to win again (after Yarmouth in August) for his owners who had to be patient when he needed nearly two years off.’’
After struggling on the firm surfaces, Queens Sergeant (5.4 offers) also returns to soft ground. The grey has slipped 7lb down the handicap.
THE NAP LOOKS SMOOTH AS SILK
3.25 Yarmouth With four winners in five days, Roger Varian’s yard should go close with Sharja Silk (3.7 taken), getting a lot of weight – up to a stone and a half – all round here.
Magellan is up in trip and grade, and Elegaic’s mark looks tough. So I’m going nap on Silk.
MORANDO CAN SHOW HIS CLASS
3.35 Ayr (Doonside Cup) Saeed Bin Suroor (4 wins and now saddles Dubai Horizon) and Andrew Balding (2 wins as he sends out Morando) have shared threequarters of the winners in eight seasons at all ages (3, 4, 5, 6).
Dubai Horizon bids for a hat-trick 15lb higher than when his sequence started but Morando (4.3 offers) is a soft-surface Group performer who has been inconvenienced by the long, hot summer.
The one they have to beat is the nine-year-old Air Pilot (5.4), a Group winner twice on heavy in France in the Spring, and who goes well fresh.
LEATHER THE LAYERS WITH TAN
4.35 Yarmouth Polybius, not beaten far in a higher grade at Ascot and Goodwood the last twice, has dropped 16lb in the ratings since last autumn and drops from class 2 for only the second time in England in more than three years’ racing. Ran on late at Ascot last time, as if returning to form.
Lady Freyja won over 7f here in June, and her recent 6f success puts her back up in grade to a level she’s been unable to handle thus far.
Front-runner Tan has just had a run back after a break since landing three wins from four starts in the Spring, climbing the levels from class 6 to class 4. I took 12.5 this morning.
5.10 Yarmouth Owen Burrows is dynamite right now, going for a hat-trick today after results in the last fortnight of 122433211.
He’s left with just one runner here at Yarmouth (two at Pontefract): Khamry is 1-1 on turf and 2-2 after a break, so seems certain to get involved in this.
After Human Nature beat Colonel Frank here in August, the Colonel came out quickly and franked the form over CD a grade higher.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all to win 20)
2.00 Ayr
BET 4.5pts win QUEEN’S SARGENT
BET 2pts win and place GOLDEN SLAM
3.25 Yarmouth
BET 7.75pts win (nap) SHARJA SILK
3.35 Ayr
BET 6.25pts win MORANDO
BET 4.5pts win AIR PILOT
4.25 Yarmouth
BET 1.75pts win and place TAN
5.10 Yarmouth
BET 6.6pts win KHAMRY
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