WINNERS AT 100-30 TWICE AND 7-2: Give Daqman a halfway decent meeting and his winnings go up. After 123 points profit over the weekend with seven strikes, he was back in that kind of form yesterday but has only missed one day in the last five without a winning nap.
Profit on the day yesterday: 33.25
WON 10-3 SKELLET nap
WON 10-3 WINDCRACK
WON 7-2 OVERTURE
Fourth winning nap out of five
★ WON 10-3 SKELLET yesterday
★ WON 4-7 SHADER Monday
★ WON 2-5 KYPRIOS Sunday supernap
★ WON 7-4 ECONOMICS Saturday
BIG-RACE PREVIEWS TOMORROW: The Ayr Gold Cup meeting opens today and Daqman will be looking at big-race stats and facts tomorrow.
I SEE A DARK MOON RISING
FIRST day of the old Ayr Western Meeting and second day of the Eastern Festival at Yarmouth, but only two prizes above class 4 to distinguish the day from any other weekday.
⭕ 3.42 Ayr This is the first, the Kilkerran Handicap (1m 2f) which may have an each-way opportunity, since the last two winners have started 12-1 and 18-1.
The stats say that horses aged only 3 and 4 have won this class-3 handicap in the decade, with just the one outright favourite.
Edward Bethell is having a great run (25% strike rate); so, too, rider Callum Rodriguez (27%), who steered Oviedo into fourth in last year’s Cambridgeshire.
But, if the four-year-old wins this, visored first time, he needs a follow-up better than this race usually provides. Oviedo’s winning form is on top of the ground and he’s 5lb lower than for his first run back after being gelded.
But look at the stats in the mirror and you’ll be shocked by the reflection on the quality of the winners: the last three were all upped a few pounds afterwards and flopped, two of them blowing their chance in the Cambridgeshire.
Also visored first time is Have Secret, who has never been out of the frame in class 3 on turf (3132) in the last two years, and was fourth at Royal Ascot last season.
Aviemore won here in July and has climbed the weights with a heavy-ground romp at Chester, which suited his penchant to dominate. Dark Moon Rising has made gradual improvement and drops back in trip here but Aviemore’s pace and the left-handed track should set him up for a challenge in the half-mile finishing straight.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 5.4 Have Secret, 18 Dark Moon Rising.
ZESTFUL ‘WRONG’ AT 22.0
⭕ 4.05 Pontefract Sir Mark Prescott is going for a hat-trick today after landing gambles with one runner at Kempton on Monday and one at Yarmouth yesterday.
The race he has chosen for Judgementofsolomon has a 100% record for three year-olds in the last eight years (form figures 111). Each winner was the only three-year-old in the race.
It does not mean we can make the judgement of Solomon on the race but he wears cheekpieces today and should also improve for better ground on a tougher track and over the longer trip.
The gelding seems certain to land one hat-trick; he will start favourite for the third race in a row, which suggests that he has been ‘expected.’
Zestful could be the blot on the landscape. The mare is 63lb lower on the Flat than over hurdles; the average difference is 35-45lb, which means there is up to two-stone discrepancy; whether she can narrow that gap remains to be seen but she looks ‘wrong’ at 22.0 on BETDAQ.
DREAM OFFERS ON MURPHY
⭕ 4.25 Yarmouth Oisin Murphy, who was in brilliant form for me on Windcrack at Sandown yesterday, has seven rides in seven races at Yarmouth today.
If I wait until this class-3 handicap, I have to bet in a sprint, but it’s one he’s won before and he’s 23112 on Amazonian Dream in the last year, including success in class 2 at Windsor.
There are ‘hidden horses’ here: Inishfallen, The XO and Habrdi, who landed a class-4-and-5 hat-trick last autumn but tried and failed to get some black type in Listed races and in the Group 2 German 2,000 Guineas. Has changed trainers since.
Inishfallen has had six races in the Pattern without much reward and was last of 14 dropped back into a handicap the last day.
Smart Hero has to leap in class and Amazonian Dream looks good value on BETDAQ at 7.2, with Habrdi (11.0) worth a pound to see if he can regain his form in this company.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.42 Ayr
BET 1pt w/p to win 20 DARK MOON RISING
BET 2.75pts to win 12 HAVE SECRET
4.05 Pontefract
BET 1pt w/p to win 25 ZESTFUL
BET 8pts to win 10 JUDGMENT OF SOLOMON
4.25 Yarmouth (win 30, nap)
BET 5pts win AMAZONIAN DREAM
BET 1pt to win 10 HABRDI
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
