‘NO OAKS WINNER IN THE MUSIDORA’, SAYS DAQMAN: Five naps in a row, but what happened yesterday, Daqman? ‘Usual York excuses: Yafta missed the break; Crystal King didn’t like the ground. But you can’t win backing favourites at York. I’m glad I was on Entitle at 12-1 not banking on Sparkle Roll at 7-4.’ And the Oaks winner? ‘She didn’t run in the Musidora,’ says our man, whose current tally is:
➡️ FIVE supernaps in a row
➡️ VALUE CHALLENGE (19-10) lead over Pricewise
BEWARE OF MORE BIG GAMBLES ON DAY TWO AT YORK: Daqman again rolls out the Classic ratings, as they stand at the front of the BETDAQ Derby market, with previous trial winners potentially sitting ducks to today’s Dante result. Expect more gambles at York but it wasn’t the best place to follow the money yesterday so make your own offers and trade for value. Headlines:
🔹TODAY’S DANTE COULD KILL THE DERBY
🔹HE HAS A SECOND SHOT IN THE DARK
🔹SUPERNAP! LAH TI DAR TONIC SO FAR
🔹SPENCER RETURNS ON ROYAL WINNER
TODAY’S DANTE COULD KILL THE DERBY
It’s the Dante Derby! The story so far of the Classic colts of 2019 is here told in BETDAQ ante-post betting order for Epsom, with the official ratings on the left.
Those with *asterisks are today’s runners in the Dante Stakes at York, and it’s not difficult to appreciate the result this afternoon being a major factor in the Derby.
In fact, if Japan wins, and Too Darn Hot flops, we are left with Ballydoyle orchestrating the entire race at Epsom, nothing left to challenge the domination of an Aidan O’Brien colts quartet.
120 SIR DRAGONET (Aidan O’Brien) Treated the Chester Vase as an exercise gallop, quickened and drew clear.
126 *TOO DARN HOT (John Gosden) Won Champagne and Dewhurst but missed the Guineas (slight setback)
115 BROOME (Aidan O’Brien) Driven clear in the Derrinstown, showing action of a stayer.
118 ANTHONY VAN DYCK (Aidan O’Brien) Clinical but not impressive Lingfield Derby Trial winner.
111 *JAPAN (Aidan O’Brien) Beresford scorer, related to Oaks second and Arc winner.
114 *LINE OF DUTY (Charlie Appleby) Breeders Cup Juvenile winner. Galileo with dam’s line stamina-packed.
115 MADHMOON (Kevin Prendergast) Champion Juvenile win over Broome. Ran on, fourth 2,000 Guineas.
101 *SURFMAN (Roger Varian) Big step up for Kingman colt. Left AW field standing by 14 lengths.
089 *ALMANIA (Sir Michael Stoute) Australia colt. Dante the likely target, as not certain to get Derby trip.
Golden Horn (2015) was the last colt to do the Dante-Derby double but the strength of today’s field suggests we’re on the edge of another sequence like the 2004-7 run of North Light, Motivator, Authorized, three Dante winners taking the Derby in four years.
Sir Michael Stoute has won six Dantes (Shahrastani, Alnasr Alwasheek, Dilshaan, North Light, Tartan Bearer, Carlton House).
There have been four each for John Gosden (Benny The Dip, Golden Horn, Wings Of Desire, Roaring Lion) and Aidan O’Brien (Saratoga Springs, Septimus, Black Bear Island and Cape Blanco), while Mark Johnston has scored once (Permian)
3.00 York (Dante Stakes) Analysis: Aidan O’Brien doesn’t win the Derby with his Dante winners but mops up weaker versions of the York trial with those not right at the top of the Ballydoyle batting order.
John Gosden, on the other hand, wears the heart of his Classic team on his sleeve. They win this and do well in Derbys afterwards.
Sir Michael Stoute tends to suss out a weak Dante. If you think Almania is very unexposed at this stage to be thinking of Dante or Derby, be warned that the colt has a similar profile to North Light: two runs with a low-class maiden victory in the late summer of his two-year-old season.
I have Too Darn Hot and Almania for 20-point standard stakes in my Fortune Cookies and I’ll leave it at that, except to have a Coral-Ladbrokes forecast!
HE HAS A SECOND SHOT IN THE DARK
1.50 York Gambles on Tim Easterby’s pair in yesterday’s big-field sprint both went astray. So I’m not keen on Copper Knight today. Ee Bah Gum, no!
There are three other CD winners: the in-form Fendale, badly-handicapped Marnie James, and firm-ground-lover Harome, which the locals pronounce ‘Air-rum’ (spot the ill-informed TV commentators).
As ever in a York sprint, it’s a question of: whose turn is it? The stats tell you to check out the older horses, aged seven+ (7 out of 9).
Dark Shot (14.0 on BETDAQ early mouse) was beaten a neck for this prize last year. Tommy Taylor (11.0) showed blistering pace at Doncaster in a first-time visor. Cowboy Soldier is on the upgrade but his stable is currently 0-22.
Saaheq is penalised and comes out of the coffin-box one stall. Foolaad is a couple of pounds too high. Royal Birth hasn’t run on grass for nearly two years. It’s nearer three since Outrage did. Henley is in a rut in class 4.
SUPERNAP! LAH TI DAR TONIC SO FAR
2.25 York (Middleton Stakes) If you could run this race in a few weeks time, maybe Rawdaa would have the maturity to challenge Lah Ti Dar, who is one favourite who shouldn’t ‘get beat,’ a 10-lengths tonic for this column here at York last August.
Rawdaa, a Sir Michael Stoute work in progress, still has to find 17lb on the Gosden favourite, and her stablemate, Sun Maiden, was 20 lengths behind Lah Ti Dar in that York race last summer.
This is a confidence booster for Lah Ti Dar, who has raced from 1m 2f (won the Pretty Polly at Newmarket at this time last year) to 1m 6f (second in the St Leger), with four Group-1 title races on her schedule at Epsom, Royal Ascot, the Curragh and Sandown.
SPENCER RETURNS ON ROYAL WINNER
3.35 York (Hambleton Handicap) These big-field handicaps are a question of playing for a big return because you are expecting fewer favourable outcomes. The BETDAQ ‘prices’ allow for that to small stakes.
The Lincoln third, Beringer, won at the Craven Meeting and was narrowly beaten by Cambridgeshire winner Wissahickon here at York last summer.
A long, long way behind in the Cambridgeshire was What’s The Story but he was going extremely well at today’s trip in the John Smith’s Cup at York last July, has been gelded since and the Keith Dalgleish yard is motoring.
Another who’s been gelded is Bless Him, a Royal Ascot winner over a mile in 2017, who was a gamble back there in August. Jamie Spencer, his winning jockey that day at the royal meeting, is back in the plate.
Mutafani has beaten nothing well, and this is a big step up after a long lay-off. Hortzader is up 15lb for two quick wins in April.
I took 9.2 What’s The Story and 17.0 Bless Him from the BETDAQ orange, covered by a saver on Beringer.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 York (bull’s-eye bets to win 50)
BET 5pts win TOMMY TAYLOR
BET 3.8pts win DARK SHOT
2.10 Salisbury (win 20 at 9.0)
BET 2.5pts win QUINTADA
2.25 York (supernap)
BET 20pts win LAH TI DAR
3.35 York (bull’s-eye bets to win 50)
BET 6pts win WHAT’S THE STORY
BET 3pts win BLESS HIM
(2pts win stakes saver BERINGER)
7.30 Newmarket (win 20 at 3.2)
BET 5.5pts win ALBADR
FORTUNE COOKIES
3.0 York: 20-point level stakes
ALMANIA
TOO DARN HOT
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