WHERE THE WINNERS COME FROM: Pricewise names his Cheltenham Festival ante-post picks in the Racing Post from today but Daqman warns that winners of the championship races come from a specific set of trials. Daqman is 20-8 up on Pricewise in the current jumps season.
LADBROKES STAGE CLASSIC TEST: Only Ludlow survives the NH racecourse mudbath today. Newcastle on Wednesday and Leicester Thursday are already off. The going is heavy for Saturday at Wetherby, which has lost its last three meetings. The highlight today is a Guineas trial at Lingfield, sponsored by Ladbrokes.
CHAMPIONS FILE: DON DOUBLY QUALIFIED
Cheltenham Gold Cup (Cheltenham, 18 March) There is just one more top trial left in the big-race build-up, if the usual paths to the Gold Cup are to be trod by the winner again this year.
Kauto Star, Denman, Long Run and Coneygree, a superb quartet of Gold Cup winners between 2007-15, had all taken the Denman Chase (formerly the Aon) at Newbury on February 13.
The qualifiers for gold so far, if the pathfinder stats are to work out, are in order of BETDAQ betting offers:
6.6 Don Poli (won RSA Chase, Cheltenham; Lexus Chase, Leopardstown 2015)
7.2 Cue Card (won King George, Kempton, Boxing Day 2015)
52.0 Smad Place (won Hennessy Gold Cup, Newbury 2015)
310.0 Coneygree (won Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015) and Uxizandre (won Ryanair Chase, Cheltenham) both doubtful runners.
CHAMPIONS FILE: THURLES THURSDAY KEY
Champion Chase (Cheltenham, 16 March, 2016) There is still a long way to go before you have all the pieces to the Champion Chase jigsaw.
The Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles on Thursday, weather permitting, is the next big stepping-stone. New Mill (2006) took it on his way to festival glory.
After that, we still have the Clarence House Stakes at Ascot on Saturday week; the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown on the last day of the month; and the Game Spirit at Newbury on February 6.
The qualifiers for the title from the top trial races so far are in BETDAQ betting order:
4.8 Sprinter Sacre (won Champion Chase 2013, won Desert Orchid Chase 2015)
9.4 Sire De Grugy (won Champion Chase 2014; won Tingle Creek Chase 2015)
10.5 Dodging Bullets (won Clarence House Chase, Champion Chase 2015)
14.5 Special Tiara (second Tingle Creek Chase 2015)
CHAMPIONS FILE: NO STOPPING FAUGHEEN
Champion Hurdle (Cheltenham, 15 March, 2016) The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton Park on Boxing Day confirmed what we already knew: that Faugheen will be hard to topple from his Champion Hurdle perch
But we still have to come the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday, January 24 – Faugheen and Nichols Canyon are both likely to run – and the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton in February, both fair indicators in the past.
The original Daqman fancy, Old Guard, must redeem himself in the Kingwell. If he swerves Cheltenham, he will line up in the Aintree Hurdle.
The New One and Peace And Co are expected to meet in the Haydock Park Champion Hurdle Trial on Saturday week, won last year by The New One.
The qualifiers for the Champion Hurdle title from the top trial races so far are in BETDAQ betting order:
1.69 Faugheen (Cheltenham Champion Hurdle 2015, Punchestown Champion Hurdle 2015, Christmas Hurdle, Kempton 2015)
8.6 Nichols Canyon (Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle 2015 and Hattons Grace Hurdle 2015)
17.0 Identity Thief (won Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 2015)
52.0 Top Notch (second Fighting Fifth Hurdle)
150.0 Wicklow Brave (third Fighting Fifth Hurdle)
MICK CAN MAKE ALL IN THE LUDLOW MUD
2.00 Ludlow Take The Mick is expected to try to make all, the fitting of cheekpieces suggesting that Venetia Williams means business.
The handicapper has him dead level at the weights with Celtic Intrigue but we have no idea whether that one can act in the mud, or be fit enough to do so, after a good-ground hat-trick prior to an absence of 177 days.
3.00 Ludlow Garde La Victoire is a big fish in a small pond here, rated a stone in front of the minnows and should land a banker on his way to greater things at the Spring festivals.
CLASSIC CANDIDATES IN LADBROKES RACE
2.10 Lingfield John Gosden likes to educate his youngsters on AW in winter with the Spring Flat season on turf in mind, and the stewards can hardly complain, since his current form figures are 311214112.
Clearly horses like Muaither already know their three Rs at home and come to the racecourse class to show their IQs. It’s a blackboard jungle out there.
2.40 Lingfield (Ladbrokes Conditions Stakes) Would you believe, a Guineas trial 12 days into January! The target, certainly for the two Maktoum runners, would be the UAE 2,000. The Dubai-based home Guineas trials are on Thursday.
Special Season and Lazzam are already bound for the UAE colts’ Classic next month but Hombre Rojo and Red Rannagh would have to earn their invitation this afternoon.
Special Season (100) and Lazzam (91) are officially rated at least a stone clear of the other two, but the morning market of BETDAQ offers had Hombre Rojo well taken, in to 3.8 behind Special Season, who should take it on his easy but impressive small-field CD win in December.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 except the banker)
BET 7pts win TAKE THE MICK (2.00 Ludlow)
BET 6pts win MUAITHER (2.10 Lingfield)
BET 8pts win SPECIAL SEASON (2.40 Lingfield)
BANKER: 20pts win (nap) GARDE LA VICTOIRE (3.00 Ludlow)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win acca the four above
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