ROYAL ASCOT LESSONS FROM THE PAST FOR NEXT WEEK: It’s Royal Ascot next week and, today until the weekend, Daqman presents stats and facts for the pick of the five days, one week ahead each time, so here’s Tuesday for Tuesday with lessons from the past, some of them applicable to ante-post betting, others with a warning to hold your horses!
ALL CHANGE PLEASE: Going changes all over and plenty of non runners to navigate throught but DAQMAN has dug deep for a Carlisle NAP.
DON’T DESERT FLYING FRANKIE
2.30 Royal Ascot, Tuesday (Queen Anne Stakes) This used to be a Team Hannon party, with magic milers like Toronado and Canford Cliffs, but both were already Group-1 winners.
Barney Roy (BETDAQ 7.8), winner of the St James’s Palace Stakes in 2017, fits the bill but has switched from Richard Hannon to Charlie Appleby.
Richard’s runner, Oh This Is Us (40.0 BETDAQ), plus Mustashry (11-2) and Zabeel Prince (12.0 BETDAQ) at the front of some markets, are six-year-olds, and I can’t find one of that age group to have won the Queen Anne in 40 years.
The only two fillies to have scored in the decade came from France and Canada. Frankie Dettori, he of the flying dismount, is leading jockey in this race with six wins (current form 120211).
He’s had 60 Royal Ascot winners all told, against 53 for Ryan Moore. Sir Michael Stoute has trained 79 winners, with Aidan O’Brien on 65.
ANTE-POST HEADS UP: Follow Frankie Dettori at the meeting. Avoid six-year-olds in the Queen Anne.
3.40 Royal Ascot, Tuesday (Kings Stand Stakes) More than 40% of the 27 still in this race are aged three, but only three second-season animals have won this century.
American Wesley Ward, who sends seven horses over next week, will saddle Bound For Nowhere in this one for the entire’s third attempt at the royal meeting: previously fourth in the Commonwealth Cup and third in the Diamond Jubilee.
Stalls 7 to 14 have won seven of the last nine.
ANTE-POST HEADS UP: Take an early position on Bound For Nowhere (27.0 BETDAQ, 16-1 with several bookmakers). Then wait for the draw, and pounce on an older horse in the BETDAQ orange, avoiding low stalls.
Bound For Nowhere could instead run in the Diamond Jubilee on Saturday week, but there’s likely to be a similar bookmaker discrepancy.
4.20 Royal Ascot, Tuesday (St James’s Palace Stakes) Huge draw bias caused by that right-hander into the straight: stalls 2 to 7 have won nine times in the decade; eight of the last 12 came out of stalls 2, 3, 4 and 5.
Another strong stat is the success in the race of Aidan O’Brien (seven winners, most recently Gleneagles, 2015) but, although it’s a good event for Guineas winners, O’Brien’s Churchill flopped at odds on (2017) after scoring in both the Newmarket and Curragh Classics.
Phoenix Of Spain and Too Darn Hot (Curragh winner and second), Magna Grecia, Skjardu, Madhmoon (Newmarket winner, third and fourth) and Shaman (Longchamp runner-up) could all represent their Guineas next Tuesday.
Jamie Spencer, who rides Phoenix Of Spain, has had a Royal Ascot winner in 14 of the last 18 seasons and actually shows a small level-stakes profit on all rides.
ANTE-POST HEADS UP: Grab a BETDAQ offer as soon as the draw is announced, avoiding stall 1 and anything over 7.
DIGGING INTO DEEP GROUND FOR NAP
Racing goes ahead today… well sort of. There are a host of early non-runners across the country, notably at Salisbury where there are currently 17 runners taken out … and counting.
The ground has changed to soft overnight and that clearly must be the key focus for form study on Tuesday.
2.45 Salisbury The defection of Reynolds has left the William Haggas trained Tapisserie as the prohibitively warm favourite for this seven furlong race.
She ran well at Lingfield on soft ground last time out but was still a beaten favourite and there might be value in opposing her with a win and place alternative on BETDAQ.
I like the look of the Richard Hannon trained Quick who is surely worth another chance on this ground. She made a winning debut at Newbury when the ground was soft, despite starting at 25/1.
Her follow-up effort at Ascot in better company was disappointing. However, she was eased down when her chance was gone and it could easily be that the good to firm ground went against her. The Hannon stable continue in good form with 12 winners over the last two weeks.
3.45 Salisbury Again, the ground is at the forefront of my analysis. The two three-year-old fillies arrive in good form but there are big ground related question marks against both of them.
Both were course and distance winners last time out but on much quicker ground and neither Bella Vita (seeking a hat-trick) or Pemple have ever tackled ground worse than good.
That’s not to say they won’t handle it but I prefer to take that particular question out of the equation and stick with She Believes who has winning form on soft at Leicester and also won two starts ago at Ascot when the ground was good to soft. She also comes into this on the back of a solid enough effort at Doncaster last time out.
7.30 Carlisle Testing ground at Carlisle too and an uphill finish to boot. Archaeology has run well on his two starts for Jedd O’Keefe since joining from Ireland where he handled soft ground OK at Roscommon as a two-year-old.
He seems progressive and is preferred to the Mark Johnston trained joint top weight Reggae Runner, a Lingfield all-weather winner who has no experience on a testing surface.
JOSEPH CAN GET IN ON THE ACT
8.10 Roscommon (Connaught National) Can the stats help us here, as we hope they will for Royal Ascot? You could stage the Queen Anne Stakes more than five times while the Connaught National is being run!
Davy Russell, who is looking for a hat-trick in the race today, after scoring with two seven-year-olds, is on old-timer, Cecil Corbett, aged 12, who has been absent seven months and has never won after a break. The most likely winning age is seven or eight.
Shark Hanlon’s Rewritetherules is only five, and not easy to guesstimate the strength of his two hunter-chase wins.
Mac N Cheese for Gavin Cromwell ran well in the Mayo National on the sharp track at Ballinrobe, after outrunning the favourite over today’s trip at Punchestown.
But in front of him that day was Joseph O’Brien’s Tesseract. He travelled well for most of the race after a lay-off.
Tesseract was sixth in this last year, fading only at the last, and was fifth in the Troytown Chase in much better company the previous autumn. He’s a one-race wonder, and this is his target.
There’s a doubt about Ellie Mac getting the trip. Similarly, Beyond The Law has been kept to around 21 furlongs for most of his career. So I’ll take Joseph O’Brien – back to form with a double on Friday – to get in on the act.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked as advised)
2.45 Salisbury (win 30 and place bet win 10)
BET 3pts win and 10pts place QUICK
3.45 Salisbury (win 20)
BET 3.3pts win SHE BELIEVES
7.30 Carlisle (win 20)
BET 8.7pts win (nap) ARCHAEOLOGY
8.10 Roscommon (win 30)
BET 2.75pts win and place TESSERACT
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