BALLYDOYLE NAPPED TO WIN THE DERBY TRIAL: Daqman today keeps the faith with a Ballydoyle nap in a Derby Trial that Aidan O’Brien has won 12 times, but he finds both trials at Leopardstown are pretty modest affairs, there with decent prizes for the winning but unlikely pointers for the future. He takes the opportunity to take a swipe at the Stewards for failing to inquire into one or more bad runs in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas. At Haydock, he finds a Newmarket trainer rolling in clover. Headlines:
🔹 THE EMPEROR’S NEW CLOTHES..
🔹 RAFFLE BAFFLER: PUNTERS SNUB
🔹 ANOTHER LOVE FOR BALLYDOYLE
🔹 FLY TOM’S BANNER AT HAYDOCK
🗓️ Wednesday and Thursday BETTING PLANS
THE EMPEROR’S NEW CLOTHES..
⭕ 2.00 Leopardstown (Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial) The race that threw up gems like Galileo, Yeats and Dylan Thomas is a glass-bead game these days.
With three of the six runners, Aidan O’Brien will instruct Seamie Heffernan, Wayne Lordan and Padraig Beggy that this is for the money, a race in itself, with 53,000-euros on the table, and no future in sight.
Brien has won it 12 times, lately with Battle Of Marengo (rated 115), Broome (115) and Douglas Macarthur (110), who finished, respectively, fourth, fourth and seventh in the Epsom Derby, but my point is that none of them ever won another race. Not a one.
Russian Emperor is expected to improve on his recent Naas maiden win for better ground, and he can pick this up while he’s in form.
Blinkers are needed for Emperor’s stablemate Iberia, who races off 106, after running in the National Stakes (fifth to Pinatubo) and the Royal Lodge (third to Royal Dornoch).
Sunchart looks a decent sort but Andrew Slattery has had 53 straight losers under both Rules since he last trained a winner on December 6.
So the Trial looks sub-standard, even by recent levels, and hard to imagine anything being of Derby level, though not difficult to imagine the winner going nowhere after this.
RAFFLE BAFFLER: PUNTERS SNUB
If only it were that easy. After top rating Love in my stats study, and switching to the 1,000 Guineas flop of Millisle, I then see Jessica Harrington bounce back with a treble at home yesterday at Naas, first day of the resumption for the sport in Ireland.
It’s always seens as unsporting to claim ‘we wuz robbed’ after your horse has performed below expectations, as Millisle did in my estimation – and that of Ms Harrington – so I’ll say instead: why no Stewards’ inquiry into the running of Raffle Prize in the same race?
There was a hefty plunge – or we were led to believe there was – and many punters seemed to follow like lemmings, until Raffle Prize was among the four market leaders at 9-2 SP.
The Racing Post reported: ‘Slowly into stride, took keen hold, in rear, ridden and no response over 3f out, eased from 1f out.’
I would have said: ‘Sluggish, slow away; seemed lifeless; jockey gave her every chance; strongish urging produced nil response, so allowed to come home in her own time.’ Last of 15, beaten more than 32 lengths.
I was glad of my first rule of the restart: don’t follow a gamble when the price has gone.
ANOTHER LOVE FOR BALLYDOYLE
⭕ 2.30 Leopardstown (Fillies Trial) As I was saying, Jessica Harrington is in great form, with Millisle the disappointing exception, but is it still true that she has ‘a whole host of strong fillies this year,’ as was continually reported by the 200 experts before the Guineas. If so, we should surely see her produce something in this trial.
Celestial Object raced only on the soft ground of the autumn, winning her maiden here at Leopardstown before fourth in a Listed in better company at Newmarket.
The winner, Born With Pride, was a disappointment in the Kempton Classic Trial last week but the third, Run Wild, was a smart winner of Newmarket’s Pretty Polly Stakes.
A Galileo filly, Celestial Object is small but is likely to enjoy the sound surface today, and now should be the time to catch her, while her stable is in form and other better-grown sorts are finding their feet.
Tango, less than three lengths behind Love in the Moyglare and fourth to Millisle in the Cheveley Park, is back to the class of her Curragh victory in October but she had nine races last season, which could have used her up as a two-year-old.
The reverse is true of Love Locket, lightly raced by No Nay Never out of a See The Stars mare, who was out of a half-sister to High Chaparral.
Know It All and Peace Charter are also unexposed; Precious Moments can claim to have finished fourth behind 1,000 Guineas winner Love.
The ratings (Tango 104, A New Dawn 102, Know It All 101) are likely to be turned over, and I’ll take Celestial Object (around 10.0 BETDAQ) and Love Locket (6.2) to be the ones do so.
FLY TOM’S BANNER AT HAYDOCK
⭕ 2.15 Haydock Sceptical proved yesterday that an AW horse can make the transition to turf. I’m sceptical that Mountain Brave can do so.
I’m also wary backing Sir Mark Prescott (Glen Force) at this stage; he’s had a winner since the resumption, but others have started massive prices up to 150-1. David O’Meara (1-31) is also out of form.
Tom Dascombe had two Haydock winners yesterday and the filly Brookside Banner (9.4 BETDAQ) won here on her debut. That she then went straight for a Listed – race spoiled by very heavy ground – shows the regard in which she was held.
⭕ 2.45 Haydock Another AW-only winner, Astro Jack, is tested on turf, and I fancy Haydock CD winner Celsius to put the heat on him.
Newmarket trainer of Celsius, Tom Clover, picks his jockeys well. His last four runners have produced winners for Jack Mitchell and James Doyle. Today he’s booked Andrea Atzeni for 6.0 BETDAQ offer Celcius.
Dandy’s Beano likes cut in the ground but trainer Kevin Ryan (1-28) is missing strike badly, with nine seconds or thirds to one win from 28 starters.
⭕ 3.45 Haydock The 4.0 BETDAQ offer Be More is 2111 on ground with ‘soft’ in the description, and Guineas-winning trainer Andrew Balding will be feeling lucky to have found some ease in the going after the sunshine Spring.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Leopardstown (win 20 nap)
BET 10pts win RUSSIAN EMPEROR
2.15 Haydock (win 20)
BET 2.4pts win BROOKSIDE BANNER
2.30 Leopardstown (win 20)
BET 3.75pts win LOVE LOCKET
BET 2pts win CELESTIAL OBJECT
2.45 Haydock (win 20)
BET 4pts win CELSIUS
3.45 Haydock (win 10)
BET 3pts win BE MORE
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