MAN! HE’S MADE IT 12 NAPS UP OUT OF 15: The incredible Daqman took his best-bets sequence to 12 winning naps from 15 when Man Of Harlech (WON 5-4) scored at Windsor last night for an 80% overall strike-rate.
400 POINTS PROFIT TO LEVEL STAKES: That boosts his winnings to 400 points to a notional 20 points level stake on each. The sequence is:
WON 6-1 ANIPA
2nd 11-4 Pearl Princess (beaten a nose)
WON 4-5 PROVIDENT SPIRIT (banker)
WON 1-1 TOORMORE (banker)
WON 2-1 LITIGANT
WON 5-1 SEA SHANTY
0 6-1 Specialagent Alfie
WON 7-4 TOKYO JAVILEX
WON 4-11 CALL THE COPS (banker)
WON 5-4 UT MAJEUR AULMES (banker)
WON 8-13 MUSIC MASTER (banker)
WON 1-2 WESTERN HYMN (banker)
0 11-4 BAYAN
WON 5-2 I’M YOURS
WON 5-4 MAN OF HARLECH
VALUE CHALLENGE AT PUNCHESTOWN: Daqman leads Pricewise 22-4 in the Flat (turf) season so far, and is 61-16 overall since November 23. The challenge continues today at Punchestown in the 4.55 and 5.30 with, says Daqman, ‘my advantage, the value in the BETDAQ market.’
HOW PUNTER-FRIENDLY BETDAQ BEATS THE BOOKIES
Punchestown arrives with a health warning for your wallet. Three times on today’s card last year, the bookies skimmed off around 50% of your winnings.
They did it with massive overrounds in their Total SPs. Yet this morning I found 104% punter-friendly lists of offers on BETDAQ in three of five races I analysed.
Here are the Total SPs as recorded in the form book for last year’s first day: 134%, 117%, 148%, 115%, 160%, 123% and 153%. If you’re looking for value, come to the Daq!
3.40 Punchestown (cross-country) Enda Bolger is 14241131 in this, including a six-year-old (like Fade Away here), but never a five-year-old; in fact, there have been none of that age in the decade.
As ever, Bolger doesn’t stint himself on jockey power, with Nina Carberry and Derek O’Connor two of those called in to make sure there is no Enda the run! His other two runners, including one of his three five-year-olds, are claimed off to the maximum.
VERDICT: I’d be inclined toward last year’s runner-up, Lord Hawkfield, but much the smartest move here is to watch the BETDAQ market: Bolger’s four winners since 2006 all started between 3-1 and 5-1, and there has been no winner in the decade with a double-figure SP.
4.20 Punchestown (Champion Novice Hurdle) Future champion hurdlers Brave Inca (2004), Hurricane Fly (2009) and Jezki (last year) all took this as one of their stepping-stones to Cheltenham.
And the path they took to today’s race was via win and third in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham and success in the Leopardstown Future Champion Novice Hurdle over Christmas.
Fourth in the Supreme (Sgt Reckless) and winner of a longer race, the Neptune (Faugheen), is the best ‘the good book’ can offer today.
Faugheen’s drop back in trip means this is his first run over 2m in almost a year and that was a bumper.
VERDICT: Sgt Reckless (9.6 on BETDAQ this morning) followed his Supreme effort by running second in the equivalent at Aintree.
If that hasn’t taken too much out of him, and the ground isn’t overwatered, he is clear second best to Faugheen, and it’s not reckless to take a place offer which will give me 70% better return for three places than Faugheen for the win.
4.55 Punchestown Only two winners in the last decade have carried more than 10st 6lb to victory in this, with all 10 winners at a double-figure SP.
English raider Cool Macavity has won only at novice level, like 40% of winners of this race – and is one of few in the race to be successful on drier ground.
Diplomat and Star Of Aragon are known sounder-surface horses for the home team. Diplomat’s eight defeats as favourite puts me off. And I’m persuaded against Sea Beat, as only one four-year-old has won this going right back to the invention of sliced bread.
Jockey bookings say that Lucky Bridle is best of the Mullins duo. Not seen since winning his maiden but bred for class, by Dylan Thomas, and the next five home in that maiden have all won since.
Another classy contender is The Game Changer in a first-time hood and with Davy Russell doing the steering. He comes from a Listed race of winners at Naas, and 10.5 on BETDAQ this morning is a decent offer.
The one I like at a price – massive at 22.0 – is Absolutelyfantastic, who mixes it on the Flat, over hurdles and in chases and has a potent turn of foot on top of the ground.
VERDICT: In an open race, I’ll take BETDAQ-value offers about The Game Changer, who loves a right-hand track, and Absolutely Fantastic, with a stakes saver on the favourite, Lucky Bridle.
5.30 Punchestown (Champion Chase) The last six winners had all run in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham, four of them winners or placed. Somersby, Module and Sizing Europe chased home Sire De Grugy in the big one in March.
Half the field is inferior to the class of champion we can expect here, since the only other Grade-2 winners in the race are Days Hotel and Twinlight.
Somersby has won a head then a neck on the two occasions he has met Module and that’s more than the difference Barry Geraghty will make today.
Ballynagour and Hidden Cyclone are hard to assess, as winners between 2m4f and 2m 7f. In theory, the faster ground today won’t help the stamina horses, and Hidden Cyclone can make errors in the faster 2m races.
Baily Green (9.4 offers on BETRDAQ this morning) likes good ground and is a significantly better horse going right-handed and has been aimed at this.
VERDICT: Module (6.0 as I write) has had only 12 races in his life and has Geraghty to grab him some glory today. Baily Green has always been talked off for this meeting, and with the old boys, Somersby and Sizing Europe, likely to concede on the livelier ground, should be placed.
6.40 Punchestown (Champion Novice Chase) Morning Assembly, four wins from five starts on this course, has beaten Carlingford Lough, Ballycasey and Don Cossack.
Mozoltov and Djakadam are unexposed at 3m. Ruby Walsh prefers Djakadam, who is in receipt of 9lb but it’s a tough ask for a five-year-old.
Don Cossack has raced (12F2) at all the festivals of Fairyhouse, Leopardstown, Cheltenham and Aintree and this could be a bridge too far.
VERDICT: With trip and ground unknowns for some of these, Morning Assembly may be the safest bet but I’m not convinced at 4.0 this morning, even though the BETDAQ list of offers adds up to only 104% as I write, the third at such a punter-friendly level of the five I’ve looked at.
HAVE A BIG BET ON LITTLE MAN AT LINGFIELD
LINGFIELD: Little Big Man (1.25 Lingfield) has been crying out for 7f and, with Black Vale to set the pace – and keep the price up – and Richard Hughes doing the steering, is a banker nap on a poor day in England and a tough one in Ireland.
YARMOUTH: Ryan Moore expects an armchair ride on Zuhoor Baynoona (2.05 Yarmouth), who has worked with a winning two-year-old at home and is bred for speed.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) LITTLE BIG MAN (1.25 Lingfield)
BET 2.3pts win and 7.7pts place SGT RECKLESS (4.20 Punchestown)
BET 4pts win MODULE and 2.4pts win BALLY GREEN (5.30 Punchestown)
BET 2.1pts win THE GAME CHANGER and 0.9pts win and place ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC, plus 1pt win (stakes saver) LUCKY BRIDLE (4.55 Punchestown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win treble LITTLE BIG MAN (1.25 Lingfield), ZUHOOR BAYNOONA (2.05 Yarmouth) and FAUGHEEN (4.20 Punchestown)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
