SUNDAY PREVIEW: With the weather causing chaos among the English meetings, Daqman looks forward to Fairyhouse in Ireland on Sunday, when he hopes to get more Cheltenham hints.
TRAVELLING MAN: He goes to Newcastle for his nap today. Several top trainers are travelling up there, too. But what to do their winning stats mean; and can we rely on them?
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DAY OF PEACE..
I’m eating dirt! My Monday-Tuesday previews have put up such as Rogue Angel and Cause Of Causes in the recent past, and we’ve been on them later, at huge BETDAQ offers ante-post, for their big races at Fairyhouse and Cheltenham.
But last week, under the heading ‘This One’s Paydirt But Where And When’, I talked up the staying power of Empire Of Dirt, and predicted his switch from the Hennessy Gold Cup to the Troytown Chase. He did switch, and he won at 12-1. I switched, too.. to a loser. Noddy in Toytown!
This week’s chat – about the weekend’s big trials meeting at Fairyhouse -puts up Peace News. There’ll be no peace in my household if I switch again, and he wins.
1.10 Fairyhouse, Sunday (Royal Bond Novice Hurdle) Istabraq, Jezki, Hurricane Fly and Nichols Canyon all won this as four-year-olds.
But that age group is thin on the ground on Sunday, with just six of the 26 probables, from which I hope to see Peace News run.
Peace News won at Cork a fortnight back in what could turn out to be a formidable maiden hurdle, the first three coming more than eight lengths clear of a big field. I want to buy him from Gigginstown for my Fortune Cookies (some hopes!)
Second and third to Henry De Bromhead’s Cork winner were the highly regarded pair, Chirico Vallis (Gordon Elliott) and one of my Fortune Cookies, Timi Roli (Willie Mullins). Elliott’s four-year-old contender on Sunday is Hardline; Mullins could saddle Let’s Dance.
1.40 Fairyhouse, Sunday (Hatton’s Grace Hurdle) Istabraq, at five and six, Hurricane Fly when six, and Jezki at age five, all went on to win this, Istabraq and Hurricane Fly following up in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Willie Mullins has 12 possibles, among the fabulous trio of Annie Power, Faugheen, and Vroum Vroum Mag. That will frighten off the opposition! Gordon Elliott chooses from seven, but without the obvious star power.
2.40 Fairyhouse, Sunday (Drinmore Novice Chase) Mullins and Elliott have shared the last four winners of this, 2-2, notably with Gordon’s Don Cossack (2013), winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup three years later.
Working on that premise, Valseur Lido (2014 winner of this) will take the gold for Mullins in March. He has more top-line credentials since then: the Punchestown Champion Novice and the Down Royal Champion Chase.
It will be fascinating to see whether Yorkhill (Mullins) takes this route to the Arkle or the Hattons Grace passage to the Champion Hurdle.
HUNTER LOVES THE MUD AT LINGFIELD
2.10 Lingfield and 3.40 Tom O’Brien, who has a 63% strike rate at Lingfield, partners two at a price for Colin Tizzard, for whom has hit a 15-point level-stakes profit in five seasons.
Try a win bet Leg Lock Luke (BETDAQ 5.8 this morning in the 2.10, first time in cheekpieces); if lose win and place Cucklington (big at 15.5 in the 3.40) and a small double on the two.
2.40 Lingfield Heath Hunter loves it when the mud is flying, so this is probably the wrong time for the handicapper to have dropped him 5lb below his last winning mark. Trainer David Pipe has a 38% strike rate on this course.
Noel Williams (Bingo D’Olivate) is in dire form – last thee runners, still standing, beaten total of 71 lengths – more than matched by David Bridgwater (Theatre Flame), whose last six finishers have been a total of 157 lengths behind the winners.
Fort Carson’s yard is doing well but he’s 11lb higher than for his last success (7lb of that added on for being beaten!) This is three grades higher than Collodi has scored in.
It’s nearly a year since Darebin won a race, and he’s clocked up six defeats by a total of 169 lengths but first-time blinkers could make the difference.
Recent Exeter winner on soft, Third Act, looks good and, even if you didn’t know that Colin Tizzard trained Cue Card, Thistlecrack and Indian River, you would be well pleased with the yard’s current form figures at 114010101.
Thanks to the open market in the BETDAQ orange (107%), I can back Heath Hunter at 8.2, with Third Act (3.3) as a stakes saver.
3.10 Lingfield Here’s another class 3, so the form ought to work out, and you shouldn’t make a mistake with years and years of it to help you. It’s a veterans’ chase.
The handicapper’s also had years to figure them out but he may have made another mistake here: he’s dropped Si C’Etait Vrai 10lb since his salad days in Ireland. He was a plunge horse (tipped up at the first) on the last day, as if back to his best.
TAPETA, TAPETA ON THE STATS KEYBOARD..
1.20 Newcastle Trainer and jockey figures should come into their own at minor meetings, where most of the racing is class 5 and 6, and the horses are in and out. If you can’t trust the form, you gotta find something else to trust.
The snag with track trainer-form when it’s in a slot like ‘travelling long distance’ is that it’s only what you’d expect from a top stable.
So it is that, for this race, Roger Varian (Shenanigans) has a 50% strike rate with two-year-olds at Newcastle (2-4) and Hugo Palmer (La Guapita) 29% with 38% there overall.
But it depends on where you go for your figures: those I’ve just quoted are from statistics in the Racing Post online, accessing the trainer’s stats through his profile.
In the Top Trainers table for Newcastle in the daily-paper Racing Post, Palmer is 31% overall (42% with juveniles) and Varian 19% overall (and no two-year-old winners at all. Not a one).
There can be some excuse for error because Newcastle AW is a new track – are they showing all results or Tapeta only? – but Roger Varian cannot possibly have 0-6 in one five-season table and 2-4 in another.
More Newtonian physics? More likely, the computer has been left to its own devices.. unedited, unchecked or unsupervised; asked different questions? Or is it a case of rubbish in, rubbish out.
I’ll stick with in-form stables; like Mick Channon (Pattie is 3.8 on BETDAQ, as I write)) is going for a hat-trick today, and Palmer (7.4 La Guapita) has won three of his last six races.
3.20 Newcastle Travelling trainer with the nostest must surely be Sir Mark Prescott, and Alsacienne is always thereabouts, and going for third time lucky on this course after two recent seconds.
Merriment won here only four days ago, enjoying the step up to 2m but, in order to dodge the handicapper’s reassessment, she is out quickly with a penalty. In fact, this will be her third run in 12 days.
4.20 Newcastle Jockey Callum Shepher’ds 50% in the last fortnight is from 10 winners in 20 starts. His best chance may be with front-runner Great Colaci; a trade bet at least, offered at 13.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 7pts win PATTIE and 3pts win LA GUAPITA (1.20 Newcastle)
BET 7pts win (nap) ALSACIENNE (3.20 Newcastle)
BET 1.5pts win and place GREAT COLACI (4.20 Newcastle)
BET 4pts win LEG LOCK LUKE (2.10 Lingfield), if lose 1.3pts win and place CUCKLINGTON (3.40 Lingfield), plus 1pt win double
BET 3pts win and place HEATH HUNTER, and 2.75pts win (stakes saver) THIRD ACT (2.40 Lingfield)
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