6/1 WINNING NAP: DAQMAN made the perfect start to the week on Monday when his NAP ANIPA WON AT 6/1 in the final race at Windsor.
TODAY: DAQMAN heads to the Fibresand at Southwell in an attempt to follow up yesterday’s winner.
TODAY: When does a bet become a lay? DAQMAN thinks a drift is coming on Australia in the 2000 Guineas.
GET READY FOR BIG GUINEAS DRIFT BY AUSTRALIA AFTER THE CRAVEN STAKES
When does a bet become a lay? Answer: when the price is too short and, more particularly, when there are one or more of the following circumstances against it:
1: Hype
2: Poor form of the stable
3: The true odds
Examples in hindsight (I’m not after-timing; I opposed them in this column): Mutashaded on Saturday (stable out of form). My Tent Or Yours, beaten favourite, after getting the big build-up (hype), when in reality he had a huge task on the form book giving masses of weight away.
As well as trying to price up a race – asking yourself what odds are acceptable for each horse – it’s important to look at the true odds.
Example: basically, in a handicap, if the handicapper of a 10-horse race has done his job, each runner is 9-1.
Only if you can reduce the numbers against him, building a case in his favour and negatives against the others, should you be prepared to accept less about your selection.
You must have a very good set of reasons for backing the favourite in that race at, say, 2-1, which is seven points under his true odds. It means that you think it is actually a three-horse race.
It’s much harder in non-handicaps, and particularly with second-season animals with very little exposed form, and you have to add points for error and the hidden potential of dark-horse opposition.
So a three-year-old stakes race may look like a three-horse contest but any one of the others could improve and any number of hidden factors could emerge, so that 2-1 is more like 4-1 or 5-1, adding negative potential.
The dramatic success of Kingman in the Greenham and the threat of Toormore in Thursday’s Craven Stakes made Australia’s 2,000 Guineas market position look untenable this week.
Australia will drift even further if Toormore wins the Craven, after another Group-race defeat by Ballydoyle in Sunday’s Gladness Stakes.
Your secondary problem, when deciding whether to lay a horse, is your liability. I’ve played even-Stephen in this column with all my lays, concentrating on short-priced horses (and done good) but I would like to be more flexible.
So it is that I am introducing a lay stakes-range from 5pts to 20 points, with the same staking system, as for a win bet, this time aiming at a lose-20 target.
Like the Australia situation, a horse may remain a lay even when it drifts, so smaller stakes are needed, lest we take on too big a liability. At some point or other, it is no longer a sensible lay.
That’s when the pricing-up job becomes even harder: what price does the lay horse have to be before it becomes a bet! A weak Australia could be value.
RECENT BIG-RACE LAYS
DYNASTE (2nd 13-8 favourite)
BURTON PORT (unseated rider 16-1)
MONBEG DUDE (unplaced 16-1)
MUTASHADED (unplaced 3-1)
MY TENT OR YOURS (3rd evens favourite)
TODAY’S RACING:
Delighted with Anipa landing the NAP at 6/1 yesterday but DAQMAN is never happy !! I don’t often tip up debutants but did so in the opener at Windsor, Mylaporyours, who was backed off the boards on BETDAQ (and indeed was the top positive of the day on the market movers) but she had a truly nightmare passage in the race and was hampered a couple of times and I was left feeling what might have been. However, the nap more than made up for it and put a smile back on my face – honest !
Interesting days racing today ahead of Newmarket starting tomorrow (and Cheltenham for jumps fans). We’ve got a relative of Big Buck’s running in the closing second division of the Exeter bumper at Exeter – More Buck’s (yes the apostrophe is back!). Nigel Twiston-Davies saddles Warwick winner King’s Tempest in the same race and may be up to defying the penalty which is never easy to do in this type of race.
Kempton’s card looks really tough today so I’m playing at Southwell with the NAP.
Record holder Stand Guard goes for another win in the opening claimer but the bet on the card could be Pearl Princess in the Ladbrokes Median Auction Maiden Stakes at 4.00.
There is little to choose in the betting between the selection, Glorious Star and Bajan Beauty but she is the only one of the trio with Fibresand experience which counts for so much around here. Glorious Star is making his racecourse debut and Bajan Beauty has her first start on the all-weather and is making her seasonal reapperarance.
Pearl Princess showed promise here on debut when not beaten far in fourth and also ran well in third at Lingfield last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 8pts win (nap) PEARL PRINCESS (4.00 Southwell)
BET 5pts win KING’S TEMPEST (5.45 Exeter)
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