TWO OUT OF THREE TWICE: 75 POINTS PROFIT: Two winners from three bets two days running. That’s Daqman’s record on Sunday and Monday, boosted by two naps in a row, one of them a supernap. His profit on the two days to win-20 stakes is more than 75 points.
Monday (profit 35.75)
WON 6-5 BLOTTOS (nap)
WON 3-1 SHANROE SANTOS (5.0 on BETDAQ)
Sunday (profit 39.75)
WON 5-4 MONBEG NOTORIOUS (supernap)
WON 7-1 JENNYS SURPRISE (9.8 on BETDAQ)
DAQMAN GOES FOR QUALITY ACROSS THE CARDS: Today Daqman checks out the markets and the betting stats for the first day at Cheltenham. He has a bet in the best-quality races at each of three meetings at offers of 3.55 (nap), 5.0 and 8.0 on BETDAQ.
SUPREME FAVOURITES GRAVEYARD
The usual Cheltenham conundrum. Which favourites to back, which races to bet on an outsider? The market stats will help, plus the trainers to concentrate on.
Also important if you’re betting now: which BETDAQ offers are real value, which bookmaker bets are poor prices and why?
1.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 13 (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) Just the ONE outright favourite in the decade. Leading trainer: Willie Mullins 4.
Notorious for the failure of hot favourites. Gambles which failed this century include most recently Min at 15-8 and before that Dunguib at 4-5 and Youlneverwalkalone at 5-4.
BETDAQ GUIDE: Expected to run in the Mares Novices Hurdle (Thursday 15th), for which she is around evens or 11-10, Laurina is 40.0 on Betdaq for the Supreme and clearly a doubtful runner, but bookmakers have her short at 10-1 or 12-1.
Samcro is now definitely switched to the Ballymore but his trainer, Gordon Elliott, who won this last year with a 25-1 shot, can fall back on Mengli Khan (14.5 on BETDAQ), Hardline (235.0), Farclas (260.0) or Mitchouka (260.0). Khan you tell the most likely one?
2.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Arkle Challenge Trophy) FIVE winning favourites out of the last six. Nicky Henderson 3.
BETDAQ GUIDE: Modus, Capitaine and Ballyandy are still beiong quoted by some bookmakers. They are not running, and have been removed from the BETDAQ orange.
The market mover has been Saint Calvados, in from 14-1 to 5-1 with the layers, 6.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Ultima Chase) ONE favourite in the decade. Jonjo O’Neill 3, David Pipe 3.
3.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Champion Hurdle) FOUR favourites out of the last seven. Willie Mullins 4, Nicky Henderson 3.
BETDAQ GUIDE: Melon 19.0 but 8-1 in a place with bookmakers and generally 14-1 and 16-1. Yorkhill 25.0 and 23.0 in BETDAQ movement but 8-1 to 12-1 with the fixed-odds layers.
4.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Mares’ Hurdle) SEVEN winning favourites out of nine, four straight odds-on winners (2011-2014). W Mullins 8 consecutively (2009-2015, seven of them with Quevega).
BETDAQ GUIDE: But it’s Gordon Elliott who has the odds-on shot this time in Apple’s Jade.
As ever, the bookies are too short about the supporting cast. So you can get 9.4 on BETDAQ Let’s Dance (Mullins) where the layers average 11-2.
Benie Des Deux (more Mullins), as low as 4-1 and 5-1 but 18.0 on the exchange. La Bague Au Roi as low as 8-1 and 9-1 but 17.5 in the orange.
4.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday (NH Challenge Cup) THREE favourites in the decade. Gordon Elliott 3.
5.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Close Brothers Novices Chase) ONE only favourite. Winner trained by the usual suspects.
HAVE A DROP OF MOONSHINE
2.50 Clonmel Henry De Bromhead last year stopped a winning sequence of five in this by Willie Mullins (including Don Poli).
Mullins swerves the race today but will be interested in the performance of Monkshood, who tailed off behind his Fabulous Saga on the last day.
Monkswood now has to bounce back and redeem himself at this level at this trip but stablemate Burren Life is not out of it.
Though he, too, tailed off behind Fabulous Saga in November, he narrowed the gap on the same horse at Leopardstown recently.
He comes out of that about ‘the same horse’ as Delta Work (rated 139), a close fourth to Total Recall two weeks back at Leopardstown.
Mouse Morris says of the five-year-old Last Man Standing that he’s a next-year horse but, though the same age, Moonshine Bay could take a hand in this result.
We’re back full circle now to Henry De Bromhead, whose new recruit, Chris’s Dream, should improve for the step up to 3m
But collateral form shows that Chris’ Dream was around 7lb in in front of Great Khan at Limerick in December, with that one about 14lb adrift of Moonshine Bay at Clonmel last month.
Moonshine Bay, a 5.0 BETDAQ offer, is a 3m Point winner, so could beat the obvious ones here under Robbie Power for Jessica Harrington.
PISTOL TO PUT THE WIND UP ‘EM
3.35 Wetherby Caraline made all the running here on Boxing Day but disappointed afterwards and cheekpieces are now added to the tongue-tie.
Evan Williams is sending Swift Crusador up from Welsh Wales but the stable is missing strike badly, with a run of 22400002, four of them well supported at between evens and 9-2 at SP.
Pistol Park has had a wind op and wears a tongue-tie. Goes really well on heavy and has been dropped to within a pound of his last winning mark.
Dresden on the other hand has climbed back up the handicap after scoring at Catterick in January. Pistol Park has three years on him and is entitled to improve, aged seven. I took 3.55 on BETDAQ as the nap.
UNISON COULD CARRY THE WEIGHT
3.45 Taunton Fabulous BETDAQ market of 105% around 9.05 this morning. Punter friendly or what! It’s very open, says the betting. But is it?
Unison won only a class 3 on the last day (Taunton, good) but the form has been boosted by the runner-up.
Caid Du Lin drops back from Graded races but was more than four lengths behind Unison at Huntingdon in November (also good ground) at similar weights.
Coillte Lass won a Listed and took on Vroum Vroium Mag and Let’s Dance in separate races at this time last year. Her career over fences has been a stone less than that, and a return o hurdles is interesting, cheekpieces on for the first time and a 7lb claimer drops the weight 10-12lb on her form of last Spring
A tongue-tie and cheekpieces might help Black Mischief in his first handicap and Hurricane Hollow was in good form last time, albeit over further.
December hat-trick winner Our Merlin has done really well in strong handicaps at Sandown and Cheltenham despite a two-stone hike in the ratings.
There’s collateral form here. Call Me Lord, around ‘the same horse’ as Unison at the weights at Huntingdon, was 30lb better than Our Merlin at Sandown.
Different ground but a huge gap. It suggests that Unison’s concession of 12lb today is not a problem. I took 8.0 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20)
BET 5pts win MOONSHINE BAY (2.50 Clonmel)
BET 7.85pts win (nap) PISTOL PARK (3.35 Wetherby)
BET 2.85pts win UNISON (3.45 Taunton)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
