NAP-HAPPY NEW YEAR WITH A BULL’S-EYE TARGET Supernaps are going for a hat-trick today and Daqman also dares a win-50 bet (that’s a bull’s-eye target, a value for money 8.6 offer on BETDAQ). Daqman’s current scores and today’s headlines are:
*Four naps up out of five
*564 points profit on horses to follow
*Daqman 12, Pricewise 5
CAN’T RESIST A STUNNING START
CHAOS THEORY AT THE WEIGHTS
LAYERS DEFI-NITELY GENEROUS
GIVE ME GRAND NATIONAL HOPE
JOHNSON’S A BOOST FOR JERSEY
‘SHADOW’ OVER NEARLY HORSES
CAN’T RESIST A STUNNING START
12.15 Cheltenham Way back in 2011 Bobs Worth won this on his way to the Albert Bartlett, and later on RSA and Gold Cup steeplechase success.
His trainer, Nicky Henderson, directs I Can’t Explain along the same path, a 3m Point winner who showed speed to win over 2m on his hurdles debut at Sandown and will welcome today’s longer trip.
Henderson describes him as a ‘big, stunning horse with loads of ability’ who has a ‘great season ahead.’ Worth a bob or two, then. I could get 4 for every 5 staked on BETDAQ this morning.
CHAOS THEORY AT THE WEIGHTS
12.50 Cheltenham I can’t find big weights (nothing over 11-8) carried to success in this race: they have finished 4P0044P20L403 in the decade.
Nor would I have much respect for horses older than 10 who have finished 04000PPP00432PP00P0042 since Rambling Minister won for them in 2009.
That seems to put this prize between Some Chaos and Shamroe Santos, who won the London National but then, stepped up in the ratings and in trip, was turned over by the fourth horse when they met again at Sandown.
Some Chaos was beaten at Wincanton by the subsequent close-up fourth in the Mandarin. Rolling Dylan was third over today’s CD in a Grade 3 on the last day.
Robinsfirth had won that race a year earlier, beating Shanroe Santos but trainer Colin Tizzard is missing strike currently (only 2-33), and ‘Robin’ is giving more than a stone to Some Chaos, a 4.3 BETDAQ offer who just gets my vote.
LAYERS DEFI-NITELY GENEROUS
1.25 Cheltenham (Dipper Novices Chase) Small fields are normal in this; so are decent winners, like Yanworth and Whisper in the last two seasons.
Today’s field is certainly select. The four market leaders are separated by only 3lb in the ratings, and are among the front-runners for the Arkle and RSA.
Lostintranslation, who has yet to be entered but surely will be if he does well here, wasn’t as fluent as Black Op when they were one-two over hurdles at Aintree (On The Blind Side behind).
But Black Op himself was not foot perfect when put to fences at Exeter, where Defi Du Seuil capitalised on earlier chasing experience, and was alway in command: 4.1 Defi looks the most generous of the value odds in a 103% BETDAQ overround.
GIVE ME GRAND NATIONAL HOPE
2.00 Cheltenham This race is farmed by Nigel Twiston-Davies: three winners from four tries since 2014, including Ballyhill last year.
Ballyhill was easy to back this morning, 10lb higher than when scoring at Aintree last month, though he has chasing experience going back 14 months.
Aso is also long on experience but is also 13lb higher than his previous winning mark, up 8lb for scoring at Newbury in November after a year off. Ah so!
Divine Spear’s form when fresh is 12112, and trainer Nicky Henderson is confident he’ll improve from there.
Give Me A Copper looks problematic on the in-and-out bare form but is reckoned a Grand National horse at Ditcheat.
At 104% overround this morning, I could afford to punt a couple of offers in a wide-open BETDAQ market: 7.0 Give Me A Copper and 11.5 Ballyhill.
JOHNSON’S A BOOST FOR JERSEY
2.35 Cheltenham This hurdles race produces some cracking stayers, including Singlefarmpayment and Cogry, twice subsequently first and second in big chasing handicaps at Cheltenham.
Vive Le Roi has shot 37lb up the handicap since the summer and must surely switch to fences soon.
He had De Name Evades Me and Aux Ptits Soins behind when winning the Ladbrokes Hurdle, with one in the mix with them – Rockpoint, second – going on to take the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle here at Cheltenham.
Shalakar is consistent but not so’s it inspires you: he raced off around 118 for three races and now is off 127 for the third time, though you should perhaps allow for the return to form of trainer Venetia Williams.
Jersey Bean climbed quickly – 20lb in three starts in the autumn – and was giving a huge chunk of weight at Market Rasen to the cleverly placed Aaron Lad, who went on to win over today’s CD at Cheltenham a fortnight ago.
Jersey Bean has his ground and has Richard Johnson doing the steering, so we should get a decent run at 8.6 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
‘SHADOW’ OVER NEARLY HORSES
3.10 Cheltenham (Relkeel Hurdle) Wholestone won this last year after a poor effort at Newbury. He’s followed the same route in the same style.
But it was heavy ground then and he ran Old Guard out of it only on the flat. There’s only a couple of pounds between these two nearly horses, and Clyne is nine now.
So I’ll take a chance on the Scottish Champion Hurdle winner, Midnight Shadow, at a tasty 9.6 in the BETDAQ orange.
It’s significant that he’s down from Yorkshire. He looked even better stepped up in trip on the last day and is still only six.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.15 Cheltenham (supernap)
BET 20pts win I CAN’T EXPLAIN
12.50 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 6pts win SOME CHAOS
1.25 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 6.5pts win DEFI DU SEUIL
2.00 Cheltenham (win 20 each)
BET 3.25pts win GIVE ME A COPPER
BET 2pts win BALLYHILL
2.15 Musselburgh (win 20)
BET 1.75pts win VAL MOME
2.35 Cheltenham (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 6.5pts win JERSEY BEAN
3.10 Cheltenham (win 30)
BET 3.5pts win MIDNIGHT SHADOW
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