ABC GUIDE TO THE IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS: There are 300,000 euros up for grabs in the greatest Guineas of them all, the one that tells you if the Newmarket equivalent was the real thing! Stats for the Irish 2,000 Guineas on Saturday at The Curragh are checked out by Daqman, using this stats formula:
A Ran in Newmarket 2,000 Guineas (9 out of 10)
B Four to seven previous races (10 out of 10)
C Sired by Group/Grade 1 or 2 winner up to 1m (10 out of 10)
D Trained Aidan O’Brien (nine since 1997)
E Rated 114 to 121 (notional 9 out of 10)
F Born before 9 April (10 out of 10)
G Ran in last 21 days (10 out of 10)
ABCDEG War Command
The only flaw in War Command’s CV, if the stats are any guide, is that he was a late foal. But perhaps all the more reason why he should come on for his Newmarket Guineas run, when around five-lengths ninth.
In the last decade, colts that were first (two), third, fourth, fifth (two), seventh, 11th and 17th at Newmarket all went on to The Curragh and won, the pair beaten farthest in the English Guineas both being trained by Aidan O’Brien.
War Command is by the same sire as Declaration of War, winner for O’Brien of the Queen Anne Stakes and York International, both likely targets for a victorious War Command.
His two-year-old record was good but looks less impressive over time: the Coventry Stakes form (he won it) has proved not up to Classic standard, and the Phoenix Stakes winner (he was third) was then behind Toormore and Astaire, again short of the very top.
ABCEFG Kingman
Last year ‘s Solario winner (small field) looked nailed on for the Newmarket Guineas after a bull-charge clear of his field in the Greenham at Newbury.
But appearances can be deceptive at this time of year and the runner-up Night Of Thunder, turned around the form by around five lengths over an extra furlong in the Guineas.
It was deemed a messy affair, with the field split into two groups and Night Of Thunder hanging badly in the run-up to the line in a slow-run race, with Shifting Power staying on and War Command easy to back behind stablemate Australia, who was third.
ABCEFG Shifting Power
Fourth under Frankie Dettori in the Newmarket Guineas (despite being unfancied at 50-1), three lengths behind the winner, stablemate Night Of Thunder, who was himself 40-1.
Shifting Power is joint top of these stats, barring his being trained by Team Hannon, not Ballydoyle. Coolmore would not dream of having such a colt, by the sire of veteran sprinter Borderlescott.
He was unbeaten as a two-year-old but the form of the Free Handicap, in which he completed his hat-trick, has been let down by both second and third.
BCDF Oklahoma City
By the sire of Midday out of a mare closely related to champion stayer Kayf Tara. Raced twice at Newmarket so not the course but more likely a fitness worry that kept him out of the Guineas.
Anything he did as a two-year-old was always going to be a bonus, and his seconds to Geoffrey Chaucer and Kingston Hill suggest he has plenty of speed to go with the untapped stamina.
BCDG Fountain of Youth
By the same sire as Oklahoma City, but out of Attraction, who landed the Newmarket-Curragh 1,000 Guineas double. A latish foal, fourth in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot.
BDFG Great White Eagle
Well beaten by Astaire in the 2013 Middle Park, and fourth, with Fountain Of Youth behind, in the Tetrarch trial (7f) at The Curragh nearly three weeks ago. Sire did not win at the highest level.
BDFG Michaelmas
By the same sire as Great White Eagle, out of a mare by Belmont winner, Lemon Drop Kid. Group-3 placed as a juvenile. Also unplaced in the Tetrarch Stakes on reappearance
BEFG Mustajeeb
By Nayef, whose Group wins came at 10f plus, out of a mare related on her dam’s side to a French Derby winner. Curragh 7f already too short when second to War Command in the Futurity last year but still showed impressive foot to sweep through the field at Leopardstown on his reappearance over a mile.
BC Fiscal Focus
Sire has got just one Group winner, Astaire; the dam is from a line which has won from 7f to 1m 6f. Jim Bolger’s family horse.
CDFG Adelaide
Son of Galileo and, of course, another Ballydoyle contender. Beat Fiscal Focus last season and just edged out of Prix Hocquart by a horse that had beaten a Group winner with a four-timer to his name.
CFG Answered
Son of Authorized out of a Lear Fan mare. Beaten further by Fascinating Rock in the Leopardstown Derby Trial than by the same colt in the earlier Ballysax. Jim Bolger for Godolphin.
CF Patentar
Fourth in the Craven, form let down by the winner, Toormore, but boosted over further in the Dante Stakes by the runner-up The Grey Gatsby.
C Obliterator
Half brother to Irish 1,000 winner Just The Judge. Already winner over a mile as a juvenile, looked good when eased down chasing home True Story in the Feilden Stakes but not so good when True Story flopped in the Dante.
C Prince Of All
Two out of two in minor events on Polytrack this year but the stiff mile will suit, though he wouldn’t want The Curragh ground to deteriorate.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win LILLY JUNIOR and 2pts win (stakes saver) CHATHAM HOUSE RULE (3.20 Newcastle)
BET 6pts win HEHO (3.30 Nottingham)
BET 3.5pts win (nap) ARMOURER (4.10 Bath)
BET 5pts win BEAT THE TIDE (4.20 Newcastle)
BET 4pts win GREEN MONKEY (7.30 Yarmouth)
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