FIVE WINNING BETS IN A ROW: Daqman made it five consecutive winning bets when Capote (WON 4-1) followed on his Sunday success. Then the bubble burst at Catterick yesterday, the only jumps meeting to survive the weather. Just the one again today, at Ayr.
WEIGHT-AND-SEE DAY FOR AINTREE: Daqman warns you of the new parameters within which to look for the 2014 Grand National winner, as the weights are announced today for the great race in April.
GRAND NATIONAL GRAVY TRAIN: FIRST-CLASS TICKETS ONLY
Weight for it! Today’s unveiling of the handicap for the Aintree Grand National should confirm the trend to quality horses in recent years, and punters would be well advised to check out the recent stats, revealing a marked rise in the rating – and therefore weight – of the winner.
Those looking for an early punt need to clean the mud off their boots and look at a Springtime race on turf like a billiard-table at one of the world’s great racecourses.
They should forget the old thrill-and-spill Grand National and consider the race a marathon Gold Cup, with kinder modified fences, better-class horses, and more finishers despite a faster-run race.
Take your time to study the card and calm those itchy fingers until the BETDAQ list of offers will, as usual, reveal the market strengths and weaknesses – and the value – that even a conglomeration of bookies’ fixed odds fails to do. Here’s what to look for as the weights are unveiled:
AGE: In the 30 years since Corbiere, only two other horses younger than nine have won, both from the bottom end of the handicap. Eight winners were nine, eight were 10, eight were 11.
GOING: Only four times in that period has the race been run on going any worse than good to soft. Heavy ground winners were all set 10st 3lb to 10st 11lb.
CLASS: Five of the last six winners had performed in Graded races prior to their success at Aintree. Their ratings, and therefore weight, reflect their class.
RATING: Four times in the last five seasons the winner has been rated between 148 and 157. In the six previous years, victory came from a lower range, 138-144.
WEIGHT: Only six winners carried 11st or more in the 30 years, with four of them in the last five years.
ANTE-POST: Check out my first position on the race, Rocky Creek at 28.0 on BETDAQ. He was 21.0 this morning before the weights announcement.
I need a good weight for him and some Press headlines to force his price lower, so that the ‘overs’ give me a trade. Look out tomorrow as I go through all the weights.
By the way, I see that my Cheltenham Supreme Novices’ Hurdle bet of last week, First Mohican (20.0 offers on BETDAQ), is now down to 15.0 on the people’s exchange and has today been tipped by Pricewise.
Thanks Pricewise.. more ‘overs’ in the pipeline for me, then!
TODAY’S RACING: GANSEY RATES THE NAP, DROPPED IN GRADE
Pride or prejudice, I fancy Mr Darsi. The Irish seem to have the novice hurdle (2.20 Ayr) sewn up today, with hat-trick seeking Layla Joan under Tony McCoy and distance winner Fine Rightly, vying for favouritism at 2.31 and 2.4 respectively as I write.
But that tight head-to-head in a 108% list of offers in the BETDAQ orange has Askamore Darsi right out at 7.4. Too big by half!
I’ve been surprised to see Mr Darsi running – and running very well – over 2m, since he’s related to 3m 1f hurdles and chase winners and his dam is a half-sister to an Irish National hero.
So, theoretically, when they ‘ask a more’ today, it should be forthcoming in spades, though Layla Joan is obviously going to be hard to beat.
The Irish four-year-old Moss Street (1.50) looked huge this morning, 6.4 on BETDAQ, if he can reproduce the form of his third of 18 at Leopardstown over Christmas, when 18.0 Triumph Hurdle hope, Ivan Grozny, was a length or so in front of him, with the subsequent Naas winner of a 17-horse field, Sea Beat, third.
The one-two last year, Ancient Times and See The Legend, renew rivalry in the conditionals’ race (2.55), both in good form, yet 11.5 and 13.0 respectively, as I write.
They finished in the same order last month, first and third, split by W Six Times, who has yet to live up to his name (‘waited with, will win when wanted’).
The one they came for, early mouse, was Millers Reef, who might be going for a hat-trick today, had he not slipped up on one of the bends, railing round Southwell.
The handicap chase (4.00) has a 106% list of offers in the orange at time of writing, but the appalling course records of both trainers and jockeys of Panthers Run and Strathaird suggest that we are in a ‘round-book’ (100-100) situation.
Too Cool To Fool, Forestside and Soul Angel normally need further, but the two front-runners, Mumgoes Debut and Hotgrove Boy, may play into the expert hands of A P McCoy on an Ayr heavy-ground winner, Forestside (6.0).
I ought to nap in the only quality race of the day, the class-3 (4.30), with horses at that level more likely to run to the form book.
If they do, course specialist And The Man should turn around a January one-two with Wicklow Lad at the revised weights.
But that McCoy fellow will surely grind it out again on the consistent Barneys Honour (14 out of 15 times in the first five) and Gansey is dropped in class.
Trainer Sue Smith has had three winners from her last five starters so the 5.0 Gansey looked tempting after his ‘moral’ at Haydock, beaten a length and a half giving more than a stone to the winner.
TOMORROW: Verdict on the Grand National weights. Bets for four BETDAQ-sponsored races at Kempton Park. Tips for Musselburgh and Chepstow.
DAQMAN’S BETS FOR TODAY: staked to win 20 points each.
BET 4.5pts win MOSS STREET (1.50 Ayr)
BET 3pts win ASKAMORE DARSI and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) LAYLA JOAN (2.20 Ayr)
BET 4pts win FORESTSIDE (4.00 Ayr)
BET 5pts win (nap) GANSEY (4.30 Ayr)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double Layla Joan (2.20 Ayr) and Gansey (4.20 Ayr)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
