10-1 PLUMPTON ONE-TWO: Daqman’s nap was a non-runner yesterday but he was unbeaten in two other races, including a 10-1 Ladbrokes forecast with a one-two at Plumpton:
WON 15-8 Gonalston Cloud
WON 9-4 Billy No Name
2nd 4-1 Rock Gone (forecast)
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST WALLET: Today Daqman reviews his ante-post bets for Cheltenham, with a change of direction due this week with the publication of the Grand National weights. Look out for his BETDAQ market verdict.
HOW I FINALLY DITCHED THE CHAMPION
Not so much the Titanic, more the Marie Celeste. The dreadnought Ditcheat, which once sailed through every haven of the big-race scene, suddenly vanished, virtually without trace.
Hands up any Master Minded who can show me anything near a Denman or a Kauto Star – or even three legs of one – in the Paul Nicholls yard today.
No point my Dodging Bullets, I confess I played Ditcheat very early in the Cheltenham ante-post game, panning for gold, but not a trace of paydirt.
I’ve got a few nuggets elsewhere, but the Nicholls wallet means I will find it hard to trade them, if I am to make an overall profit.
I shivered with anticipation at the chances of Vibrato Valtat (Champion Chase); I followed the trainer’s own recommendation for Old Guard (Champion Hurdle) and I had a bit of Saphir Du Rheu (Gold Cup) to boot.
Surely the champion could get one of them to post as a leading fancy, one at least would pay for all the rest and more. Not to be.
On December 6, I finally wailed: ‘Just look at Paul Nicholls recent form: 2233605345350354P0’. And on February 5, I wrote in a special Trainerform File:
‘Paul Nicholls is not the man he was (1-28 in two weeks) and now we have to treat the current champion like any in-and-out offender: stable not stable.’
Finally, I published my horses to follow on February 11, with not a Nicholls runner among the lot of them. I had pressed the Ditcheat delete.
I was soon counting the ‘overs’ I had ‘won’ on Bristol de Mai, and now Vroum Vroum Mag and Roi Des Francs could also bring me Cheltenham glory. Here’s the list of ante-post Cheltenham bets in ABC order, all placed with BETDAQ unless stated:
9.3 Bristol de Mai (win 50, JLT Chase, Cheltenham), now 4.5
16-1 Martello Tower (win 100, World Hurdle, Cheltenham, with Ladbrokes) now 34.0
36.0 Old Guard (win 100, Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham) now 92.0
13.5 Road To Riches (win 50, Ryanair Chase, Cheltenham) now 7.0
9.8 Roi Des Francs (win 50, NH Chase, Cheltenham) now 8.2
12.6 Saphir Du Rheu (win 50, Cheltenham Gold Cup) now 194.0
16.6 Vibrato Valtat (win 50, Champion Chase, Cheltenham) now 84.0
6.0 Vroum Vroum Mag (win 50, Mares Hurdle, Cheltenham) now 3.85
9.8 Vroum Vroum Mag (win 50, Ryanair Chase, Cheltenham) now 17.0
(I’ve left my Grand National bet on Cause Of Causes for later in the week, when I will discuss the weights for Aintree, due out today).
CHELTENHAM DOUBTS OVER ‘LAME’ AR MAD
Ar Mad’s star may have burnt out quickly. Just when the home side thought they had something more to go to war with against the Irish, after he romped home at Plumpton in his left-handed prep, trainer Gary Moore reported that the horse was lame last night.
The hope is that he will recover quickly but it gives him a ‘glass horse’ feel for the roughhouse skirmishing at Cheltenham. And that’s only the other horses.
The track itself is a tough test, with its fences, sprawling turns and gradients punishing any weakness of lung or limb. Ar Mad has known only the speed centres of Sandown and Kempton.
TRYING TO HIT A SIX AT 6-1 ON BETDAQ
2.20 Ayr In the good old, bad old days, W Six Times meant: ‘Waited with; will win when wanted.’
And we won’t offend her handler, Alistair Whillans, if we say that seems to be the case today, since W Six Times won this event two years ago and any trainer worth his fee would try to steer the Double Trigger mare back to peak for an event she’s enjoyed before.
Having said that, you have to be a believer: she has had just one run back, is not in the same form she was before the 2014 victory; that was her only success; and she’s 4lb higher; now 10-years-old.
On the plus side, Alistair is getting 100% out of his horses right now, according to the marvellous trainer-form assessment in the trade paper: I took 7.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
3.40 Southwell (Ladbrokes Handicap) With lines to form through Dubai Hills, it seems we can expect a battle of Southwell specialists here in Philba (three wins there) and Ian’s Memory (also three).
Philba (4.2 offers) is favoured, since Ian’s Memory usually needs a run and Jeremy Noseda has so far failed to score in 2016.
YES! TOM IS A CAT ROUND THE AYR TRACK
4.05 Ayr Too Cool To Fool, six times a winner at Ayr but all of 13 years old, also tries to do the double two years on, and is a place bet at 19.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
He won it off a lowly 81 in 2014 but the handicaspper shot him down with a monster 130 for the Grand Sefton at the end of that year.
Now dropped to a more manageable 100, he’s riodden by James Reveley who goes for a hat-trick in today’s race.
4.40 Ayr Another trainer getting 100% out of his horses, Nicky Richards was unlucky yesterday when – in the absence of my nap, Another Hero – his Looking Well was progressing to take a contest at Catterick when he hit a fence on his handicap debut.
Nicky, having a fine season with a 24% steeplechase strike rate, is hoping for consolation from Bernardelli, but he has not been fluent, and is blinkered first time after running out when fancied for a class 2.
After doing a downer on P Nicholls, I have to add D McCain’s runners to my list of no-nos. Any other trainer here, and Ubaltique would be a knocking bet off 10st 9lb, but it’s hard to have confidence in the stable, and also in the horse at this trip.
I shall rely on Yes Tom (3.9 offers on BETDAQ), who has Ayr form-figures of 222141330101, won after a break and seems to have been given enough time since to avoid the bounce factor.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3pts win and place W SIX TIMES (2.20 Ayr)
BET 6pts win PHILBA (3.40 Southwell)
BET 1pt win and place TOO COOL TO FOOL (4.05 Ayr)
BET 7pts win (nap) YES TOM (4.40 Ayr)
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