BATTLE LINES FOR 2018 ARE TAKING SHAPE: Daqman today assesses the two-year-olds of 2017, with just three big trials left that could change the Classics betting for next season. The filly Happily has won two on his major list of meaningful races. She beat the colts in Sunday’s Lagardere.
11/4 WINNER TO START WEEK: DAQMAN started the week with JIM ROCKFORD WON 11/4 but it wasn’t quite enough to turn a profit on the day after the nap Haylah was headed on the post.
HAPPILY ON CLASSIC BOARD TWICE
Don’t worry about it! Roaring Lion turned over Nelson in the Royal Lodge. Clemmie went clear in the Cheveley Park. And the ‘pony’ US Navy Flag, adorned with blinkers and tongue-tie, came away from a big field for the Middle Park.
But the races below with the ratings to date (those from French results are collateral-form measures) are the only two-year-old trials that count in the long term, when it comes to the following year’s Classics.
117 UNFORTUNATELY Karl Burke (Prix Morny, Deauville)
117 VERBAL DEXTERITY Jim Bolger (National Stakes, The Curragh)
116 SANDS OF MALI Richard Fahey (Gimcrack Stakes, York)
115 SIOUX NATION Aidan O’Brien (Phoenix Stakes, The Curragh)
115 WILD ILLUSION Charlie Appleby (Prix Marcel Boussac)
114 HAPPILY Aidan O’Brien (Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, Chantilly)
112 HAPPILY Aidan O’Brien (Moyglare Stud Stakes, The Curragh)
111 MAGICAL Aidan O’Brien (Debutante Stakes, The Curragh)
108 THREADING Mark Johnston (Lowther Stakes, York)
105 ROSTROPOVICH Aidan O’Brien (Futurity Stakes, The Curragh)
STILL TO COME:
Fillies Mile, Newmarket, October 13
Dewhurst Stakes, Newmarket, October 14
Racing Post Trophy, Doncaster, October 21
QUESTION IS TO KEEP THE FAITH?
3.25 Ayr Racing returns to Ayr after the track lost all three days of their flagship flat meeting and the going is soft (heavy in places).
It’s a tough card and not much variety either – all seven races are handicaps.
The 3.25 looks interesting as it will be a real stamina test over the 1m 7f trip. The puzzle has been made easier with three of the runners dropping out.
It’s hard to be against Question Of Faith, even though she is up a further 3lb in the handicap. She’s a resolute stayer as she proved when winning over a similar trip in heavy ground at Carlisle (tougher circuit than Ayr) last time out and comes into this seeking a hat-trick having also won over 1m 7f at Catterick. She’s previously won at Ayr and looks the nap on the card.
Testing ground has to be the concern for the majority of her rivals. La Bacouetteuse has had 72 starts but this will be deepest ground he has ever encountered!
Wor Lass still looks too high in the handicap for me. She won six handicaps in a row in 2015 and any horse who embarrasses the handicapper to that extent is likely to suffer for years to come. The bulk of her wins have also come on good or faster ground.
5.35 Ayr Another recent winner who I expect to defy the hike in weights is John Caesar who seemed to have a bit up his sleeves when winning at Beverley on soft ground a week ago.
He was previously an infrequent winner but the penny seems to have dropped with the soft ground and trainer Rebecca Bastiman is striking while the iron is hot.
8.10 Kempton Medicean Ballet looks too big in the market. My man in the long grass suggests the Henry Candy trained filly can go well on her return to the all-weather. She is still relatively lightly raced and has been taking on tougher opposition recently.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked to win 20 points)
BET 8.3pts win (nap) QUESTION OF FAITH (3.25 Ayr)
BET 5.8pts win JOHN CAESAR (5.35 Ayr)
BET 1.6pts win and 3pts place MEDICEAN BULLET (8.10 Kempton)
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