SEVEN LAYS UP IN A ROW: Daqman had to wait until his last betting race for a ‘result’ yesterday, a double whammy when his lay and win-and-place bet (2nd 10-1) both paid out in the same race. Paradise Spectre (unplaced) was his seventh consecutive successful lay.
DOUBLE ACROSS THE CARDS: Today it’s back to the low-level 10-point bankers, one of two getting lumps of weight, with Daqman fancying them strongly enough to suggest a Daq Multiples double, one each at Southwell and Sedgefield, in the space of 15 minutes.
BENBENS COULD SHINE IN BECHER SUN
There’s no better turf than Aintree. And Nigel Twiston-Davies is hoping for drying ground there on Saturday for the Becher Chase.
The Becher score in the decade is Paul Nicholls 3, Twiston-Davies 2 but, while Nicholls has two in the high half of the handicap – Mon Parrain and Just A Par – the Twiston-Davies stable has one the right age and weight, if the stats are to be believed.
Seven of the last 10 winners have carried less than 11st, and four of the last six have been nine-year-olds. Bang on the button is Benbens (9-10-13).
I can hardly ignore him because, where Balbriggan is, Benbens would be, with that big ‘if’ the going is on the good side. On a line through Charingworth, there’s not much between them.
Benbens has never been out of the first four in his short chasing career, which is the tail-end of a very light CV, just 14 races, 10 of them in the first three. The weather forecast for Aintree? A sunny Saturday.
PRINCE LOOKS EMPOWERED AT 3.7 OFFER
One went too short, the other too long. The advantage of being able to keep your Daq up and follow the market trends right to the ‘off’, was revealed by my two anchor bets yesterday.
My nap, Maria’s Choice at Plumpton, went very short for what he had done, a punter response to his being Tony McCoy’s only ride of the day.
My lay, Paradise Spectre at Kempton, paper-forecast second favourite, drifted like a lonely dog on a raft, over the betting weir to 25-1. It landed the lay all right but the liability was not my usual deal.
However, that reminds me of a professional punter I know, who almost always lays ‘all the rags’ in a big race. He said: ‘I can lay 60 horses before one wins at 25-1; the equivalent of 35 points profit at level stakes at that price; how bad!’
He would, I know, comment on Paradise Spectre as follows: ‘Don’t let anyone else price up a race for you; least of all the popular Press.’ Yes, boss.
Incidentally, don’t ever call him a professional gambler; his fiery response would be: ‘Gambling is when you have no idea of the outcome; betting is when you can bet on a predictable outcome, which will happen enough times to win you money.’ Yes, boss.
I did challenge him once when he seemed to be betting on a race like a man with no arms, spraying money everywhere. He merely replied: ‘My maths have gotta be right; I’m working to about 3%.’
More of this another time. Suffice it to say that my job is to try to launch my/your investment on some of the races on a given day with an early position that is workable as a trade and potentially profitable as a best guess, win (or lose, if a lay).
And the lesson of Plumpton yesterday was that the more obvious a horse’s chance in low-level racing, the less likely it is to win! Only a lonely long-odds-on shot scored for the favourites. No other obliged.
But the good news is that all bar one was a bigger price before the race than at SP, and all six, discounting the odds-on jolly, were bigger on BETDAQ.
The reason: horses at this level usually come good for just the odd race, unless they are shrewdly placed sequence horses, winning several times before the handicapper stops them.
Dual CD winner Prince Blackthorn might have landed a Sedgefield hat-trick, still standing, but for being short of match fitness three weeks ago, his first run back.
The Prince, who won this last year, gets around a stone from the three others in the 2m 4f handicap chase (1.30) this afternoon, with all eyes on Ballydague Lady because of her 17 lengths win on the last day.
In fact, she came clear of a horse running over the wrong distance, with two born losers behind, and may be considerably flattered. There’s certainly no reason why the Lady should be 1.7 against the Prince’s 3.7, which I see on BETDAQ early mouse. I’ll dip in on the second favourite, which I hope to see short enough later on to lay off a bit.
BANKER IS MAN ENOUGH FOR THREE MILES
It’s a mad price. At Southwell, Tony McCoy’s mount, Mad Jack Mytton (2.20) was huge this morning at 9.6 on BETDAQ. Could be a warning.
Jonjo O’Neill’s horses are under a cloud after just one winner in the last two weeks but Merry King ran above himself in the Hennessy and one of the Jonjo ‘ignored’ is likely to pop up at a big price.
The only one backed of his today is Bandit Country (1.50), who has run well twice recently and, as a Flemensfirth, should be favoured by today’s step up in trip.
But, though beaten into third on his return, Mad Jack Mytton had two bumper winners behind him that day, and the winner has run well since when raised a grade to class 4.
I’m expecting improvement from The Tourard Man (1.15) now that he’s stepped up to 3m. His dam was a 3m-hurdle winner, related to Foxhunter hero Fantus.
Again the Jonjo isn’t fancied and the two at the top look exposed and are giving away a stone to my Man, who is napped, maximum stakes at such a short price, so a banker.
DAQMAN’S BETS Stakes are according to the strength of the bet, from 1 point to 10 points, with 10 a banker stake, naps from 6 to 9 and outsiders from 1 to 4. A 10-point banker is automatically the nap (best of the day).
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) THE TOURARD MAN (1.15 Southwell)
BET 7pts win PRINCE BLACKTHORN (1.30 Sedgefield)
BET 6pts win BANDIT COUNTRY (1.50 Southwell)
BET 2pts win MAD JACK MYTTON (2.20 Southwell)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double THE TOURARD MAN (1.15 Southwell) and PRINCE BLACKTHORN (1.30 Sedgefield)
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