BULL’S-EYE BET ON KING GEORGE: With 12 left in Saturday’s cracking King George, Daqman dives in for value with a Bull’s-Eye Bet. That’s where he tries to win 50 points in one go.
JUST LOOK AT THE BETDAQ VALUE! There was value galore in the ante-post orange this morning. Follow the market from this starting point ‘early mouse’:
7.60 MAGICIAN 7-2 several bookies
13.0 TRADING LEATHER 8-1 in a place
15.0 FLINTSHIRE plenty of 10-1
15.0 MUKHADRAM a lot of 8-1 around
41.0 NOBLE MISSION offers of 12-1
41.0 ROMSDAL 16-1 in places
112. BROWN PANTHER as low as 25-1
FABRE ‘FLINT’ CAN FIRE IF IT’S DRY
IT’S AS EASY AS ABC: Daqman has had five big-race Classic and handicap winners at or near the top of his famous ABC guide to the stats and facts. Here’s today’s King George guide:
SATURDAY’S KING GEORGE ABC KEY:
A Group 1 winner (10/13)
B Aged four (9/10)
C Won over 1m 4f (11/13)
D Only two or three starts in his year (9/10)
E Winner trained Stoute/O’Brien (7/13)
ABCD Flintshire
Andre Fabre won this in 2006 (Hurricane Run) for the same owner as the other French winner this century, Montjeu (2000).
Flintshire cannot so far be counted in their league but is a late maturing sort, not favoured by the soft ground at home, and he ticks the main boxes as winner of last year’s Grand Prix De Paris.
Very lightly raced, he ran up to Cirrus Des Aigles in the Coronation Cup at Epsom in the Spring, and afterwards Fabre fancied targeting this King George and the fast-on-grass Breeders Cup (Turf).
ABCD Trading Leather
The 2013 Irish Guineas third who went on to beat a stayers’ field for the Curragh Derby before running second to the luckless Novellist (injured when Arc favourite) in last year’s King George.
Placed in the International at York, the Irish Champion Stakes and the recent Eclipse at Sandown (all 10f), he’s now back to a mile and a half and probably needs further.
ABCE Magician
The Irish 2,000 Guineas winner (2013) beat The Fugue on a firm surface for the Breeders Cup (Turf) and ran to similar form when the placings were reversed at unfavourable weights for him at Royal Ascot this year.
Won on heavy ground as a two-year-old but seemed not to like the sticky surface at the Curragh in May when outpointed by Noble Mission. Has raced four times already this year.
ACD Taghrooda
The stats are all against her: the last filly to win was Time Charter (1983) and nine of the last 10 winners were four-year-olds, but Taghrooda joins Mukhadram for the owner’s two-horse attack.
She’s run only three times, trotting up in the Pretty Polly Stakes (Newmarket) before leaping three grades to grab the Epsom Oaks, ‘proving herself in a different league,’ according to the Racing Post racereader.
AC Noble Mission
Has beaten both Telescope (twice) and Magician this season but the hat-trick was achieved with cut in the ground and in very slow time. Six of the entire’s seven successes came with ‘soft’ in the going description.
AD Mukhadram
Another entire, he just had to be given top marks for balls when Paul Hanagan slipped him clear of the Eclipse field and booked his place in this. But all wins are 8-10f and he’s been beaten every time in four tries at Ascot.
BCDE Telescope
The Great Voltigeur winner, kept to only five races through injury until this season, returned to twice see the rear of Noble Mission in Group-3s at Sandown and Chester but that was on soft ground.
He came into his own, back to 1m 4f, back on firm, when he took the Hardwicke Stakes by seven lengths over today’s CD last month, and is described by trainer Sir Michael Stoute as ‘still a work in propgress.’
BDE Hall of Mirrors
Has twice set it up for Magician this season. It worked in the Mooresbridge but Magician wasn’t at home in the mud and couldn’t reach Noble Mission in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh. Hall of Mirrors was 50 lengths last.
B Leitir Mor
Pacesetter for Dawn Approach last year, has been tried two and three runs lower (Listed and Group 3) in his own right up to a mile this season, without success. Stablemate Trading Leather needs him to get a move on here.
CD Eagle Top
One mighty swoop took him from a 92 handicapper, class 3, to a Group-3 winner over CD, getting a rating 26lb higher for his demolition of subsequent Belmont Derby runner-up Adelaide over today’s CD in the ‘Ascot Derby’ (King Edward V11 Stakes).
C Brown Panther
Only Swain (1998) has won this as a six-year-old (he was following up his previous year’s victory), and it’s more than three years since the Panther won the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot.
He wouldn’t win his first Group race until nearly a year ago (the Goodwood Cup) and was slammed five lengths in this June’s Ascot Gold Cup. Today’s appearance suggests that he’ll swerve Goodwood this time around and go for the Irish St Leger.
– Romsdal
Fails to tick a single box, though not far off the best – just over four lengths behind Australia in the Epsom Derby – and entitled to improve after a career four runs only.
BETDAQ’S BANGOR DEBUT
6.30 Bangor On Dee – BETDAQ Exchange £25 Free Bet Novices Chase
The first of two BETDAQ sponsored races at Bangor On Dee, a four runner Novices Chase over two and a half miles. Fantasy King is a non runner after finishing second yesterday and really looks like leaving this one as a two horse race between Degooch and Massannie.
This is probably a race that I won’t be having a bet in as Massannie is an odds on favourite and is likely to be extremely hard to beat. Over hurdles, he reached a high of 132 compared to 120 with Degooch and although both are making their Chasing debut today, it is very hard to see past Massannie who also receives a mares allowance of 7 pounds to compound the matter.
Provided Tom Scudamore doesn’t think this one is a hurdle race!!!
7.00 Bangor On Dee – BETDAQ Exchange 3% Commission Mares Handicap Hurdle
Again just five runners declared, all five are taking part in this one and despite the small number, it is quite a competitive little race.
Ultra Light makes the trip over from Ireland for Robert Hennessy and is worth a run for his connections. I never like seeing Maidens after 20+ runs and this one falls into that bracket having had 21 runs without a win.
The top two in the Handicap both have major flaws also with Cat Six having her first run in three years, almost to the day. It will take a big run from her to win this. Likewise for the top weight Hopstrings who sports Blinkers for the first time and they will need to have a major effect on him to go close here. It is not out of the realms of possibility for that to happen, but she is best watched today.
Ereyna is the current favourite and won quite well last time out. Brendan Powell takes back the reins from Joshua Moore who was on board when winning that day but the best of her form has come on a slightly softer surface and that has to be a big question mark for me.
That leaves us with Our Maimie who has the least question marks about her form with a win last time out at Uttoxeter over two miles, five furlongs. The step up in trip to three miles should suit her and she remains generously handicapped.
Also over the jumps at Southwell, Ladbrokes sponsor all seven races on the card and the two that look to hold the best value are the second and the last races.
At 2.45, there looks to be good value on both sides of the market and one of the joint favourites, Danby’s Legend has far too many flaws in his form to warrant a favourites tag and he looks a decent Lay.
Red Rosso on the other hand won well enough over course and distance last time out and although he has been penalised 7 pounds for that win, he could still have a little more up his sleeve and looks overpriced at 6.7 on BETDAQ.
Today’s Nap runs in the concluding Bumper for the record breaker AP McCoy and Jonjo O’Neill. Having won a nice race at Worcester a couple of weeks, I think he can easily justify favouritism in what looks to be a weaker event.
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY 5pts DANBY’S LEGEND and BET (to win 20): 3.5pts win RED ROSSO (2.45 Southwell)
BET 9pts win (to win 20) EILEAN MOR (3.30 Musselburgh)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) OZZY THOMAS (5.15 Southwell)
BET 8.7pts win OUR MAIMIE (7.00 Bangor On Dee)
ANTE-POST: BULL’S-EYE BET: 3.5pts win FLINTSHIRE (King George, Ascot, Saturday)
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