15 OR FEWER IN THE BIG PARIS RACE: Daqman continues his probe into Arc de Triomphe form and expectations with a going survey of the 15 probables, revealed yesterday. He will also check out the Cambridgeshire and top two-year-old form in the build-up to Newmarket which opens on Thursday.
TODAY: It’s a three bet Tuesday with Daqman revealing bets at Beverley and Newcastle.
IT’S GOING TO BE A SUNSHINE ARC
THE ARC could have only a dozen or so runners. Just 16 out of 80 accepted yesterday to attempt the £2.4m winner’s prize, against 27 at this stage last year.
Perhaps it doesn’t reduce the spectacle, but partly alleviates the high-draw disadvantage and improves the chance of a decent pace and a fair race.
The probables are already down to 15; Aidan O’Brien is switching Emily Dickinson to Saturday’s Cadran. The to-be-supplemented Continuous would be his sole Arc contender.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Going key for Arc de Triomphe acceptors: F-firm, S-soft or deeper, G-good, with numbers of wins in each category.
The ground is currently very soft but the weather is forecast sunny/cloudy every day now; no more rain, except a shower or two Wednesday evening; temperature 23 to 28
🏴 ENGLAND Bay Bridge (Sir Michael Stoute, S4, G2), Free Wind (John and Thady Gosden, S2, G3, F), Hukum (Owen Burrows, S5, G6) and Westover (Ralph Beckett, S2, G2).
🇩🇪 GERMANY: Sisfahan (Henk Grewe, S3), Mr Hollywood (Henk Grewe, S2)
🇫🇷 FRANCE: Ace Impact (Jean-Claude Rouget, S3, G), Feed The Flame (Pascal Bary, S3), Haya Zark (Adrien Fouassier, S4), Onesto (Fabrice Chappet, S3), Place Du Carrousel (Andrew Fabre, S5), Simca Mille (Stephane Wattel, S4, G2)
🇮🇪 IRELAND: Continuous (Aidan O’Brien, S2, G1, F1; to be supplemented), Emily Dickinson (doubtful), Sprewell (Jessica Harrington, S2).
🇯🇵 JAPAN: Through Seven Seas (Tomohito Ozeki, F2, G1, S1)
Look out for a form-and-ratings ABC guide.
GIVE US A WAVE
⭕ 4.00 Beverley Marine Wave gets the ideal opportunity to convert a string of respectable placed efforts into a well deserved second win.
Richard Fahey’s runner is drawn 3 here. Despite efforts to iron out the Beverley course to remove the formerly prolific bias I would always still favour a low drawn horse (in this case 3) over the minimum trip. And that applies even in a small field like today – arguably more so in s smaller field where races can become more tactical and jostling for position harder.
Marine Wave was by no means disgraced in a Group 3 at York when 9th of 10 (only beaten less than five lengths) and then she also ran another solid race in a Listed contest at Ayr last time out when third to Pink Crystal.
She is ultra consistent, likes the ground and should appreciate the slight ease in class. Definitely the nap vote of the day.
The four-year-old Korker is officially the best horse in the race but since winning at York last May has finished 03827-0206220. He’d go close if reproducing his best form but that’s a big ‘if’ and not a concern we have to worry about with the selection who brings the best recent form into the race.
Looking For Lynda proved his current well being with a win at York (made all) last time out but is still rated 8lb inferior to Marine Wave.
Ey Up It’s Maggie (won a class 5 by a nose two starts ago) and Indie Skies (well beaten on Kempton debut) can surely be readily ruled out despite the former attracting some early money on Betdaq Betting Exchange.
AFTER DUE CONSIDERATION …
⭕ 4.55 Newcastle This race might be trappier than it first appears but I couldn’t see any reason why Due Consideration shouldn’t be able to follow up on his Musselburgh success last time out.
The Adrian Nicholls yard are ticking over nicely and the step up in trip (1m 2f) should suit given he was staying well at Musselburgh (1m) and also previously on the all-weather at Kempton when runner-up (7f).
POET LEARNT HIS LINES
⭕ 5.45 Beverley Ruth Carr’s Hostelry bids for a hat-trick here after narrow wins at Chepstow and Carlisle but the 7lb hike in the weights tempers enthusiasm about the mare.
Poet’s Dawn is a winner without a penalty having won an apprentice race at Redcar last week when making all the running and winning with a fair bit in hand.
7lb claimer Archie Young takes the ride again today and the pair can follow up on the slightly easier ground which won’t present a problem as he is a previous course, distance and ground winner here!
Premiership, winner of two of his last four starts, was disappointing in third at Ripon last time out and might be better suited by the return to a mile but equally the handicapper might just have had his say too and halted his progress.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
4.00 Beverley (win 10, nap)
BET 8.8pts win MARINE WAVE
4.55 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 5.8pts win DUE CONSIDERATION
5.45 Beverley (win 10)
BET 2.9pts win POET’S DAWN
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