SEE-HOW-THEY-RAN TIPS SPECIAL: With racing decimated by rain yesterday, Daqman today brings you a special feature on winner-finding: See How They Ran. A few chances for today are discussed underneath.
TOMORROW: IRISH DERBY ABC: Look out for guides to the Irish Derby and the Northumberland Plate tomorrow and all the week right up to the big weekend.
DOUBLE WHAMMY BRIGHTON: DAQMAN dares to take on a short priced favourite who so far has shown nothing on a softer surface.
‘SEE HOW THEY RAN’ WINNER-FINDING SECRETS
It may look like value but is it? If a horse from a top stable is big at the offers, you can usually discount it, unless it is in a wide open betting market which suggests that the favourites are weak.
If a horse trained by Sir Michael Stoute ran well on the last day but stays in a low class of race, steer well clear, particularly when easy to back. It looks a snip, but it isn’t.
If one trained by Luca Cumani is ‘running into form’, be careful. Often the recent race you looked at was the one where it did its best; and it won’t improve.
If a horse with a handicap trainer has run in two maidens, then runs in the weakest maiden since graded racing was invented, you can be sure it’s a dud; win or lose.
If it were any good, it would be in a tougher maiden, or one with a big field, disguising its potential handicap mark still further so it might win its fourth race on the ‘three runs and hit’ system.
If a horse in class 5 or 6 won last time, lay it. If a horse won a sprint on the last day and is then raised above its best winning mark, avoid it unless it’s aged three or four.
I’m not telling you everything I know (I’d have to write a book) but this is the sort of stuff you should be looking for.
How do you find it? Well, one of the secrets of betting is to LOOK BACK at the results, marking them in YESTERDAY’S PAPER. See how they ran!
All your gleanings come in handy when you’re looking for REAL value. If you’ve been able to eliminate wholesale, according to this kind of research, then what’s left will probably win.
Sherlock Holmes said: ‘When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth’ or, in our case, a value bet.
Eliminating piecemeal is also well worthwhile. If, say, you took out two 6-1 chances in a 106% overround, you’re then betting somewhere in the region of 75%.
If your stats are spot on, you’ll be betting 100-75 on the rest of the field. A safer way is to then add percentage points for error by assessing how often the stats you used to eliminate those 6-1 shots are accurate.
Putting in a horse from a stable which does well on the course, or taking out one from a stable out of form is elementary, my dear Watson. But be careful.
The very best horses, proven in the best of races, often bypass whatever problem is affecting the stable, because they usually have a solitary lead horse (they may even be kept isolated from the suspect yard where perhaps a virus is affecting the form).
Why ‘a solitary lead horse’? Because it is not in educational training like the others (and learning to tuck in, for instance; or to go upsides; or challenge others in a group); it already knows more than they know put together.
It’s simply a matter of fitness training. So, while its stablemates are going to the dogs, it can still win races.
For example, when Twilight Son went to post for the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot last week, the Henry Candy yard was (for whatever reason) 2-59 for 2016 on turf. Abysmal.
But it didn’t stop Twilight Son. Not only that, but he won well backed by the shrewdies at 7-2 in a field of champions. Candy moved on that day to 3-61.
LAST WORD: If a set of your secrets are in place in a particular race, and the ‘improbable’ one is left at a big price, don’t get nervy and let the papers put you off. What do they know?
Press tipsters, jockey pundits and rave headlines are not to be listened to; they are there only to give you confidence that the one you’ve found from among your secrets is far better value than it should be.
EXCEPTIONS: But, you cry, in one trade paper last Saturday, they were all on a good winner! Tipster after tipster headlined it.
Well spotted! The operative word is ‘all’. That’s the rare occasion when you prick up your ears. The fact they were ‘all on’ in one paper suggests that they got The Word in the office, perhaps from a trainer interview, and they all dipped in!
PLAN B AT BRIGHTON
Beverley, Brighton, Ballinrobe…… what have they all got in common? No it’s not THAT simple to win a DAQMAN pen !!! The answer is NOTHING – when it comes to the ground at least.
It’s soft at Brighton, good at Beverley and good to yielding at Ballinrobe. Three vastly different tracks and three vastly different ground conditions for punters to ponder.
At Brighton it’s likely the stands side will be the favoured route home as so often is the case when the ground gets like this.
It’s not my favourite track at the best of times, on the best of ground, so will tread carefully. The opener is interesting – it’s 12 bar Fair Power and Peachey Carnehan on BETDAQ but neither of the market leaders have experience on this ground. Do you REALLY want to be guessing on two 6/4 chances ?
After the opening two-year-old races there are SEVEN handicaps in a row. There’s nothing like variety and this is nothing like variety.
I wanted to be against top weight Roy Rocket in the finale. He looks far too short in the BETDAQ market at around 2.44 at the time of writing. Whenever he has been tried on soft ground he has run poorly. Including beating just one horse home here last August when it was good to soft ground.
I’ll try the double whammy with a win on Flag Of Glory who at least has shown ability on a testing surface and comes here on the back of a 50/1 second at Wolverhampton.
WINNER A DAY IS THE MIDDLEHAM WAY
Mark Johnston has had a winner every day since the 15th June and can continue that streak at Beverley with Final in the 4.00. He had no luck here 13 days ago when boxed in and went into mine (and countless others no doubt) notebooks as a winner in waiting.
Peterhouse, the danger, was only pipped here last week and is a C&D winner but I think is just in the grips of the handicapper at the moment.
SEE HOW THEY WILL RUN SECRETS
6.10 Leicester Conditions at Leicester are testing (meeting needed to pass inspection) but I’m bound to consider a horse in the opener that fit the ‘three maidens and hit’, which I have described in the article above.
The handicap debutant, Monjeni – who is well to the fore in the BETDAQ market this morning. Cliff Edge also fitted into this project category but is now a non runner.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 7pts win (nap) FINAL (4.00 Beverley)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY to lose 10pts ROY ROCKET and BET 5pts win FLAG OF GLORY (5.45 Brighton)
BET 4pts win MONJENI (6.10 Leicester)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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