HE’S A MODEL OF CONSISTENCY: Artists Model (WON 9-4) made it a winner every day for 12 consecutive days in the Daqman column, among them 25.0, 20-1, 12.5, 10.0 and 10-1 (twice). Today’s bets include a Triple Whammy of win, place and lay.
SET FOR THE CAMBRIDGESHIRE: They were not all big prices, so Daqman today discusses his methods of market management and staking plans. It’s all in the search for value in Cambridgeshire week, with the big Newmarket meeting starting on Thursday. Look out for his preview tomorrow.
BIG VALUE BOOST IN ODDS AND STAKE
It’s not always what you back; it’s how you bet. Add together the big-odds winners and the short-priced ones of my last two columns on Sunday and Monday and you have the full gamut of gambling on the horses.
But it’s so easy to lose because you don’t stake right. I discussed the level-stakes sequence betting required to, at least, break even at either 20-1 or 2-1.
However, it’s plain crazy to use the same stakes for a 2-1 shot as for a 20-1. At the same time, to drop your stake because the horse is a bigger price could lead to your losing out on a fat return. So what’s the answer?
Well, there are several answers but the two I like, which have served me well, both personally, and as Daqman, are:
FPY: betting to a Fixed Profit Yield
You will see in this column that I stake to win 20 points on a normal day, 30 points at a big meeting, but 50 or even 100 with the bull’s-eye bet or ton-up bet.
The theory – borne out by results – is that the better the racing the better the horses and the better the chance of the form working out.
Trading is discussed by other writers on this site, but I find FPY particularly useful for taking several positions in a race, because each time you bet – say, to make it really easy, to target 100 each bet – your stakes added up are automatically the percentage you are betting to.
If the race meeting is particularly low key, I might just mark my bets according to strength (1 to 9 points, with 10 as a banker).
Triple Value: market, overs and bonus stake
BETDAQ backers are way ahead of the field when it comes to value, particularly in big races or at the better quality meetings, when the orange market adds up to between 101 and 110% most of the time, when bookmakers will be aiming at an SP of between 117 and 127%, sometimes known to hike it to 138 and even 145% (see previous columns) for big handicaps.
Even paying commission, you have the advantage on other punters. Moreover, though liquidity isn‘t always high, you have the benefit of betting outsiders at much bigger odds than the bookies allow.
The second area of value comes when you determine what price the horses should be. By ‘pricing up’ yourself you can spot where the layers – whether bookies or those making exchange offers – are going wrong or trying to devalue your bets.
It’s obvious that (using my example), if you can get 20-1 about a 2-1 shot, you have massive value. But how do you know and what do you do about it?
Well, taking the Ayr Gold Cup as an example, there was a draw bias to low stalls that had been proved in the Silver and the Gold.
It meant that – even if you are poor at guesstimating what price they should be – each horse in the single-figure draw had a better chance than its odds suggested.
I thought that particularly true of Brando (around 25-1). Looking at it simplistically, the low 10 stalls – in theory set an equal chance by the handicapper – ought to be around 9-1 each (I always build in an error margin so, say, 12-1, which, in Brando’s case, gave you odds on offer of at least double).
And the bonus stake? If you were betting FPY to win 100 at 12-1, you would bet around 8 points to win.
Be confident in the 12-1 estimate and keep the same stake at 25-1. So (8 x 25) you now can win around 200 points instead of 100. It’s a double-your-money bonus. For the same stake!
DOUBLE UP CAN LAND A SINGLE BET
2.20 Warwick We’ve had two out of three in each of two Triple Whammys in the last week or so. Could be third time lucky today.
I’m laying Tahira, beaten odds-on favourite on the last day, and vulnerable here at 3.25 in the BETDAQ green.
She’s a bridesmaid with three seconds from five starts, markedly defeated both from a rear run and from a pace run up with the leaders. The horses third in her last two races were one maiden and one beaten a total of 50 lengths since. No wonder he’s changed stables.
Whichever tactics employed, she is unlikely to cope with the runaway Bleu Et Noir, whose yard has had eight winners in the last fortnight, 10-20 placed, and is about the same price to win as Tahira is to lay.
For the outsider, I shall try the 10.5 offers Focaccia, a relative of God’s Own. The Skeltons hit 26% when teaming up here, and it’s Harry’s 27th birthday today.
3.10 Beverley Stalls 1, 2, 3 have won seven of the last 10, with only one winner drawn higher than 5 in the decade.
The odd one out was Tangerine Trees, who scored out of the 8 gate six years ago. But, though he’s got the one stall today, he’s 11 now and his last three wins since 2011 have all come in the Spring when others were still finding their form for the season.
Of those potentially well drawn, Lightscameraction (in 3) is Listed level but has only ever won on a man-made surface.
So I’m diving in to Double Up, who ran in a Group 1 (Kings Stand) and was fourth in the Portland. Trainer Roger Varian has won this race before (2013), has landed three winners in the last four days and has a near-30% strike rate at Beverley.
Can anything beat the draw? Well, CD winners Ziggy Lee (from gates 1 and from 2) and Line Of Reason (from 1) both seem to confirm the stalls bias but haven’t been so lucky with the bingo call today!
Line Of Reason, beaten favourite in this last year, is a fast-ground horse, so doesn’t want any rain. Mirza also wants it fast.
Hay Chewed won a similar class-3 under Silvestre De Sousa at Leicester a fortnight back and the mare has won off a higher mark before, albeit more than two years ago.
3.25 Warwick Yummy Yummy! Yes, the BETDAQ offers (7.8 early mouse) are good but Yummy Yummy is also the name of Royal Battalion’s dam. Her sister, Fame And Glory, won the Ascot Gold Cup (2m 4f).
So I reckon Royal Battalion’s sudden step up in trip here, after winning over 2m 5f plus at Fontwell last month, should bring further improvement.
We’re talking about the only jumps runner of the day for Gary Moore and sole ride of the day for Jamie Moore. Their trainer-jockey record at Warwick is 60%.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except the lay)
LAY to lose 10pts TAHIRA, and BET 8pts win BLEU ET NOIR and 2pts win and place FOCACCIA (2.20 Warwick)
BET 12pts win (nap) DOUBLE UP (3.10 Beverley)
BET 3pts win and place ROYAL BATTALION (3.25 Warwick)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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