DO THE HARD WORK IF YOU WANT TO BACK WINNERS: If you’re a stats freak, do them thoroughly for each big race and don’t bin them afterwards. Your hard work can show up future winners, as well as focus you on the race itself. That’s the Daqman message this morning after his top spots have landed two Legers and the Ayr Gold Cup. And there’s more to come.
WINNING SUPERNAP: Faro Angel (WON 4/6) gave DAQMAN a winning SUPERNAP yesterday but that doesn’t really tell half the story. DAQMAN has more news below.
STAR SPRINTER FOR LATE SEASON
Always follow quality. That’s why I do ABC guides to the big races, and will be doing so for the Cambridgeshire (this Saturday), the Arc de Triomphe (October 7) and the Cesarewitch (October 13).
I’m looking at the stats and facts but also the form, so it’s not only an assessment of the declarations for a particular race but potentially sums up the abilities of top animals for other similar contests in the future.
The St Leger top two in my ABC of that week were an instant success, splitting between the two St Legers of England and Ireland that weekend and winning both.
The third and fourth in the list both failed to cope with the step up in distance to a mile and threequarters. So keep an eye on them.
KEW GARDENS WON St Leger 3-1
FLAG OF HONOUR WON Irish St Leger 2-1
LOXLEY Watch for him dropped back to 10/12 furlongs
OLD PERSIAN Watch for him dropped back to 1m 4f.
The top six in Saturday’s ABC for the Ayr Gold Cup produced a regular lay, the bridesmaid Growl, and the two dead-heaters.
But I have a very strong feeling that – as last year when he won in October– Teruntum Star is the one to take out of the race.
The top six were:
GROWL I regarded as a bridesmaid and continues one to lay
TERUNTUM STAR Front-runner Saturday. Won the Coral Sprint at York last October, when not leading until two out. Could now drop to the winning rating (98) of that day.
GEORGE BOWEN Sure to go well again on better ground.
BARON BOLT WON 28-1 (dd ht)
GUNMETAL Needs better ground and a drop in the handicap.
SON OF REST WON 5-1 (dd ht)
NOT TOO FARO
The 2.50 at Leicester had enough drama for at least of couple of Dick Francis chapters.
DAQMAN was heavily involved, as his SUPERNAP was running – Faro Angel who was sent off the well-backed 4/6 favourite.
In the end, DAQMAN needed to pull out a three card trick to win the race:
- THE ACE: RACE ITSELF
- THE KNAVE: PHOTO FINISH
- THE TRUMP CARD: STEWARDS ENQUIRY
In the race Faro Angel finished strongly under Jamie Spencer and the pair just about fooled everyone into thinking they had won – or at least not lost – the race. Faro Angel was trading at around 1.2 in the reopened photo market on BETDAQ.
It was a long wait for the photo and the judge announced Nubough as the winner. Immediately the bing bong of a stewards sounded and the stewards overturned the nose verdict in our favour.
The reason they gave was interference – even though the two never made physical contact. It was more intimidation causing the favourite to run off a straight line.
Two things concern DAQMAN:
(1) Consistency. This sets a new precedent – horses don’t run in lanes so will we see the same rules consistently applied?
(2) Margin. Why is there an obsession with changing results only if it’s the minimum margin ? Surely there’s no difference in a jumps race where a horse meets interference that costs it (for example) five lengths and it ends up being beaten by two?
An eventful race. Obviously I’m not complaining as I needed the SUPERNAP to ensure a small profit on the day on the DAQMAN staking plan.
PERFECT SUPERNAP
3.55 Beverley Perfect Pasture is favoured by race conditions here and should enjoy the drop back in class and land this decent £20,0000 class 3 for Mick Easterby.
The wily trainer has him out again quickly after a great run in the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday where he finished sixth to the dead-heaters.
As we saw at Hamilton yesterday, the quick reappearance factor isn’t a negative – two of yesterday’s winners had only run the day before!
He has got plenty in hand on official ratings and the only negative is the distance as he probably better over six these days, however the testing finishing at Hamilton helps mitigate. He’s over evens on BETDAQ at the time of writing (2.12).
Main danger on the figures is Savalas who hasn’t beaten many home in his recent starts but also hasn’t been beaten far. It’s an example of when form figures alone can be superficial. He was 17th of 21 at Doncaster last time out but beaten less than seven lengths !!
5.00 Beverley This looks a little more competitive than the first division and I thought Thornaby Nash was interesting off a mark of only 3lb higher for a heavy ground win at Carlisle last time out.
Gemma Tutty also rode that day and the partnership can see off the challenge of recent Catterick winner Stringybark Creek who now has a 6lb penalty and is drawn 8 – not ideal even over this trip – the last three winners of this have been drawn 1-2-4.
8.45 Chelmsford Gemini could well be worth the wait in the closing long distance handicap in Essex. The Charlie Hills trained runner escapes a penalty for an easy apprentice win at Bath nine days ago and rider that day Jason Watson can now claim his three pounds allowance – so it could be interpreted as a winner with a negative penalty !!!
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points except SUPERNAP at SP)
BET 20pts win (SUPERNAP) PERFECT PASTURE (3.55 Beverley)
BET 4.6pts win THORNABY NASH (5.00 Beverley)
BET 8.1pts win GEMINI (8.45 Chelmsford)
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