YORKER: BULL’S-EYE BET ON 200 POINTS: Daqman yesterday reviewed his banker sequence of 25 winners for 78.73 profit. Today he looks at outsiders, including the Bull’s-Eye Bet which is 200 points up. It also returns this week for the Ebor Meeting at York.
YORKER: DAQMAN 93, PRICEWISE 33: Daqman’s value hunt overlaps a challenge to Pricewise of the Racing Post. Daqman won 39-12 in the last National Hunt season and is currently 54-21 up on the Flat for a 60-wins lead (93-33) since November 23 last year.
RETURN OF THE BULL’S-EYE BET: 200 UP
Value-hunting is a different ball game. Finding winners, mostly in stakes races, is what banker betting is all about. You are looking for standouts in events where the horses are usually separated in the weights only by penalties or age concession.
But finding value is more about backing the price rather than the horse. And it’s a hard lesson to learn. We are dealing mainly with handicaps, where the field is weighted so that all the runners should finish level at the finish.
They don’t because other factors intervene. The going, training skills, jockey tactics, draw bias, type of track (whether favouring front runners or hold-up horses, gallopers or those with shorter strides) and the horse’s fitness for the race at the time.
The trick is to price up each horse, and compare it with bookmaker prices, which will add up toi an overround against you of around 114% in morning betting up to 147% SP.
But the list of morning BETDAQ offers – at least when there is racing of quality – will have ‘prices’ totalling around 105%, giving you an edge over punters betting with the bookies.
Compare the BETDAQ orange with the prices you want and, if there is a marked difference, that is your bet or, at least, it is your open ng position on the race.
I try to raise my stake from the normal (win 20) to win 30 points or to win as much as 50 (Bull’s-Eye Bets). These maximum-return bets placed on horses with offers bigger than they should be have had the following results for a profit yield of 200 points from 16 selections since the Derby.
WON 7-2 (from 7.0) Hootenany
3rd 7-1 (from 10.5) Mubraghaa
WON 10-11 Leading Light
WON 5-2 Arab Spring
WON 6-4 Ernest Hemingway
WON 11-2 Velox
COUNTDOWN TO THE TON OVER PRICEWISE
We need extra big-prize handicaps. The loss of one of them at Royal Ascot is a smack-in-the-face for punters. We need more not fewer, witness how so many are having to be split to cope with the excess of runners, giving us gold, silver and bronze of the same race, or separate consolation caps.
Hundreds of horses a month are being eliminated from the handicap connections hoped to win, leaving only the top 20 or 30 to race. Result: very short handicaps with a weights parameter of just a few pounds, looking like conditions races with penalties.
So I am delighted to be leading Pricewise 54-21 in the number of winning Flat-race returns. That, added to the 39-12 result for the jumps season, gives me a 93-33 lead. So, starting at York I’m hungry to hit the 100, a ton up over Pricewise!
But I am not getting the spectacular winners at 20-1, 16-1, 14-1, 12-1 (three times) and 10-1 that I bagged over the jumps, though I did more than match the 39.0 I had about the Grand national runner-up with 41.0 the Great metropolitan second. My wins over Pricewise on the Flat include:
WON 8-1 Pass Muster (Musselburgh Gold Cup)
WON 15-2 Salutation (Rosebery Stakes)
WON 7-1 Chatez (Haydock Silver Bowl)
WON 7-1 Miss France (1,000 Guineas)
WON 6-1 Gospel Choir (Jockey Club Stakes)
WON 6-1 Intrinsic (Stewards’ Cup)
WON 11-2 Stuccodor (Irish Lincolnshire)
WON 11-2 Velox (Sandown Challenge)
SHINGLE CAN SHOW WIN WAS NO FLUKE
YARMOUTH: Quite a wide weights band in terms of quality in this maiden handicap (2.30) with 22lb between top and bottom. It’s really hard to enthuse about the majority of them.
Mimi Luke really does stand out in a modest contest. She is likely to be suited by the faster ground after getting bogged down when fourth over course and distance last time out. Exposed; frustrating; but the balance of her form gives her a solid chance at the weights.
Red Cossack seems to have been harshly judged by the handicapper and is paying the price for a couple of decent efforts over a longer 7f on the Polytrack at Kempton. He was well beaten at Pontefract when last seen out.
BRIGHTON: The talented Cam Hardie takes over on Richard Hannon’s Al Bandar (3.15), surely worth another chance in this company. Can be excused his Chester run last time out on good to soft ground.
Al Bandar had earlier run well on a sounder surface, including when a short head second to Pasticcio at Lingfield, with the form of that race given a good boost by the sixth, Who’sthedude, when running the odds-on Sister Of Mercy to a neck at Salisbury.
Jamie Osborne runs debutant Thanksgiving Day who looks interesting but I think this one would need to be significantly above average to beat Al Bandar on debut.
Odds-on this morning, Al Bandar goes into my Daq Multiples. But a good case for a win single can be made about Mambo Rhythm (3.45).
Mark Johnston does well on the course and this is his lone ranger today, with jockey Adrian Nicholls also on a solo mission to ride the horse, who improved for blinkers last time.
LEICESTER: Six of the seven races are handicaps and the opening maiden has attracted just four runners and the likely long-odds-on favourite for Gay Kelleway should romp home.
In the 6.00 there’s an interesting head to head between the two first time out winners. Shingle was well backed for his Ffos Las challenge to an odds-on favourite and he romped home by eight lengths in impressive fashion.
He really looked good to me that night and, colt against filly, is preferred to Hamilton winner Ridge Ranger, who also turned over an odds-on shot on her debut.
Faure Island might improve for first-time blinkers but you can’t bet on it, and you certainly can’t bet on Ronald Harris’s two runners, Fantasy Justifier and Pensax Lad. Harris has had 66 starters at Leicester in six years without a winner.
Botanist (8.00) has Leicester figures of 1011 and is a big price – 8.2 on BETDAQ this morning – and should go close, back on his favourite track.
Yesterday I tried unsuccessfully to use a place bet on my selection to cover the win stakes. Today’s insurance for the Botanist bet is a saver on the favourite, Jay Kay.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 8pts win MIMI LUKE (2.30 Yarmouth)
BET 7pts win MAMBO RHYTHM (3.45 Brighton)
BET 8pts win (nap) SHINGLE (6.00 Leicester)
BET 2.7pts win BOTANIST and 2pts win (stakes saver) JAY KAY (8.00 Leicester)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Al Bandar (3.15 Brighton), Mambo Rhythm (3.45 Brighton) and Shingle (6.00 Leicester)
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